EURUSD
- Last week, the EUR/USD experienced mixed performance as the Euro weakened against the US Dollar.
- The pair approached the near-term rising support line from the end of June and found support at the 50% Fibonacci level traced back from January 2021 highs.
- The US Dollar mostly outperformed major counterparts, including the Euro, Australian Dollar, and New Zealand Dollar.
- Despite the Federal Reserve raising rates, the lack of strong signals for further tightening left a data-dependent path for monetary policy.
- The European Central Bank (ECB) also tightened its monetary policy but kept the door open for potential further tightening in the future.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
|
| ||
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising |
| |||
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Fallng |  |
|
Closing statement: EUR/USD saw mixed performance with the Euro weakening against the US Dollar. The Federal Reserve's cautious stance tempered Dollar strength, while the ECB's tightening actions left room for potential future rate hikes. Traders should closely monitor economic data and central bank communications to navigate EUR/USD movements in the coming days.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD has been under pressure from a resurgent US dollar, resulting in most of the movement in the pair driven by the Dollar's strength.
- The Bank of England (BoE) is scheduled to announce its latest monetary policy decision this Thursday, with expectations of a potential interest rate hike from 5% to 5.25%.
- While there is a chance of a 50-basis point hike, the recent better-than-expected fall in UK inflation provides the BoE with some room to maneuver.
- Depending on the BoE's decision and subsequent commentary, the British Pound may experience significant movement against the US Dollar this week.
- The Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against six other currencies, traded mostly flat, and its performance will be an important factor influencing GBP/USD movements.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
|
|
||
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising |
|
|||
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling | |
|
Closing statement: GBP/USD has been influenced by the strength of the US Dollar, but the upcoming Bank of England decision and its actions will likely be the key drivers of the pair's movement this week. Traders should closely monitor the BoE's rate decision and accompanying remarks, as well as the Dollar Index, to gauge potential shifts in GBP/USD.
GOLD
- Gold prices experienced a slight drop on Monday as investors await major cues on the U.S. economy later in the week.
- The yellow metal closed flat the previous week after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates as expected, maintaining its plan for at least one more hike this year.
- Recent data showed that inflation, especially the Fed's preferred gauge, Core PCE Price Index, eased further in June. This could lead to a potentially less hawkish stance from the central bank.
- Markets are anticipating a possible pause in the Fed's rate hike cycle this year, which is expected to be beneficial for gold prices.
- Investors are keeping a close eye on significant economic data from China and the U.S. that could influence gold prices in the coming days.
Closing statement: Gold prices faced a minor decline as investors await crucial economic data and cues on the U.S. economy. With the Fed signalling a potential pause in its rate hike cycle and easing inflation data, the precious metal may find support in the short term. Traders should closely monitor key economic indicators to gauge gold's direction in the current market conditions.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude oil prices edged lower on Monday, but they remained near three-month highs, indicating robust market sentiment driven by the expectation of Saudi Arabia extending voluntary output cuts into September.
- Analysts anticipate Saudi Arabia will prolong its voluntary oil output cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) for another month, further tightening global supply and supporting oil prices.
- Crude oil prices are on track to post their most substantial monthly gains in over a year, driven by record-high demand and the effectiveness of Saudi supply cuts, leading to supply deficits.
- Exxon Mobil's CEO, Darren Woods, expressed optimism about record oil demand in the current year and the next, which may contribute to bolstering energy prices in the latter half of the year.
- The market has shed its previous growth pessimism, and investors are now expressing a more positive outlook on crude oil, with growing demand and supply dynamics supporting the upward trend.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
|
|
|
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising |
|
||
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
|
|
Closing statement: Crude oil prices experienced a slight dip but remained close to their three-month highs, supported by expectations of extended Saudi output cuts and optimistic forecasts of record oil demand. As market sentiment remains positive and supply deficits persist, investors are closely watching for any developments that could influence crude oil prices in the near future.
DAX
- European stock markets are expected to open largely unchanged on Monday, as investors digest weak Chinese business activity data. Market participants are closely monitoring eurozone growth and inflation data, which could influence trading sentiment.
- With uncertainty surrounding the European Central Bank's future interest rate decisions at its September meeting, investors are particularly attentive to key economic data from the eurozone. The ECB's recent rate hike to a 23-year high has put additional emphasis on data-dependent decisions.
- Inflation data from Germany's most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia, showed a 0.2% monthly increase and a 5.8% annual rise, slightly below the expected 6.2%. This data adds to the complexity of the current economic situation and could impact market sentiment.
- Despite weak Chinese data, the losses in European stock markets are expected to be limited on Monday due to the focus on upcoming eurozone data and the uncertainty surrounding the ECB's future interest rate actions.
- ECB President Christine Lagarde's statement during the recent press conference emphasized a data-dependent approach for future monetary decisions, which has put additional weight on the importance of economic indicators.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |
|
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising |
|
Closing statement: European stock markets are poised to open largely unchanged as investors analyse weak Chinese business activity data and await crucial eurozone growth and inflation data. The European Central Bank's recent rate hike and President Lagarde's data-dependent stance have left markets uncertain about future interest rate decisions. The report from Germany's most populous state showing slightly lower-than-expected inflation further adds to the intricacy of the current economic landscape.