EURUSD
- EUR/USD is trading near 1.0970, experiencing a slight decline of 0.02%. The bullish outlook for the pair remains intact as it holds above the 50- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is in bullish territory above 50, indicating positive momentum.
- Investors are awaiting key inflation data, including figures from Italy, France, and the Eurozone, scheduled for Thursday.
- The Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is expected to show a growth of 3.9% YoY in November, a slight decrease from the previous reading of 4.2%.
- The Eurozone inflation data is crucial, and if it aligns with the trends observed in Spain and Germany, it could fuel speculation about potential rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB).
- Confirmation of lower-than-expected inflation may influence market expectations regarding monetary policy, impacting the Euro against major currencies.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: EUR/USD is currently experiencing a slight decline ahead of key Eurozone inflation data. The pair's bullish outlook is supported by its position above key SMAs and the RSI indicator in bullish territory. Investors are closely monitoring inflation figures, as lower-than-expected data could lead to increased speculation about potential rate cuts by the ECB, affecting the Euro's performance against other currencies.
GBPUSD
- Minor figures from the United Kingdom posted earlier in the day show mixed results. October Consumer Credit unexpectedly rose by £1.289 billion, missing expectations and less than in September. M4 Money Supply rose 0.3% MoM in October, and Mortgage Approvals in the same month jumped to 47.38K.
- Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey asserted that the central bank is committed to taking necessary measures to bring inflation down to its 2.0% target.
- Data released on Wednesday revealed that the US economy expanded in the third quarter at a 5.2% annualized rate, above the previously reported 4.9%.
- The Beige Book, however, suggested that economic activity slowed in the period prior to November 18.
- On Thursday, critical US data is set to be released, including the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and the weekly Jobless Claims. These reports could trigger more losses for the US Dollar if they indicate slowing inflation and a softer labor market.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: The GBP/USD pair is influenced by mixed economic data from the UK and the US. While UK figures show a rise in consumer credit and mortgage approvals, BoE Governor Bailey emphasizes the commitment to address inflation. In the US, third-quarter economic expansion exceeded previous estimates, but the Beige Book signals a slowdown. Traders are eagerly awaiting Thursday's US data, which could impact the US Dollar's performance against the British Pound based on inflation and labour market indicators.
GOLD
- Gold price is consolidating after the previous pullback from six-month highs of $2,052 in Asian trading on Wednesday.
- The market is treading water amid end-of-the-month flows while awaiting critical data, especially the United States (US) Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.
- Governor Michelle Bowman's expressed desire to keep the possibility of more rate hikes alive has raised concerns about the persistence of inflationary pressure.
- In contrast, Fed Governor Christopher Waller has suggested a more accommodative approach by not insisting on maintaining high-interest rates.
- Markets are pricing a 49% chance of a March Fed rate cut despite the upward revision to the third-quarter US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data
- Gold prices are consolidating after reaching six-month highs, influenced by market sentiment around inflation and divergent views within the Federal Reserve. Governor Bowman's stance on potential rate hikes contrasts with Governor Waller's more accommodative approach. Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming US Core PCE Price Index data and anticipate insights from Powell's speech, especially considering it precedes the Fed's blackout period before the December policy meeting.
Closing statement: Gold prices are consolidating after reaching six-month highs, influenced by market sentiment around inflation and divergent views within the Federal Reserve. Governor Bowman's stance on potential rate hikes contrasts with Governor Waller's more accommodative approach. Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming US Core PCE Price Index data and anticipate insights from Powell's speech, especially considering it precedes the Fed's blackout period before the December policy meeting.
CRUDE OIL
- West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil prices are struggling to capitalize on weekly gains registered over the past two days.
- During the Asian session on Thursday, prices oscillate in a narrow band, indicating a cautious market sentiment.
- Hopes of a price-supportive resolution and deeper supply cuts from OPEC are key factors lending support to crude oil.
- Two OPEC+ sources mentioned discussions within the group about a deeper collective supply cut. Media reports suggest the cut could be as much as 1 million barrels a day.
- Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on Wednesday revealed an inventory build of 1.6 million barrels. The inventory now stands at 449.7 million barrels in the week to November 17, missing consensus estimates for a 933,000-barrel drop. This points to weak demand.
- Official data from China showed that manufacturing activity contracted for a second straight month in November. This development fuels concerns about slowing economic growth in the world's largest oil importer.
| SMA (20) | Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling |
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Closing statement: WTI Crude Oil prices are navigating a narrow band amid key event risks related to OPEC discussions on potential deeper supply cuts. The market sentiment is influenced by hopes of a resolution supporting prices. However, concerns arise from weak demand, as highlighted by the unexpected inventory build in the US. Additionally, China's contracting manufacturing activity adds to apprehensions about global economic growth, impacting the world's largest oil importer. Traders are closely monitoring OPEC decisions and global economic indicators for future oil price trends.
DAX
- On Wednesday, German inflation figures for November had a significant impact on the DAX, supporting expectations of an H1 2024 ECB rate cut. The annual inflation rate softened from 3.8% to 3.2%, falling below economists' forecast of 3.5%.
- Earlier in the session, better-than-expected statistics from Italy and Eurozone economic sentiment figures contributed to gains before the release of inflation data.
- The US economy expanded more than expected in Q3, creating uncertainty about the possibility of an H1 2024 Fed rate cut. Despite the immediate pullback, the DAX recovered from the impact of the US economic data.
- On Thursday, German retail sales, Eurozone inflation, and euro area unemployment numbers will draw investor interest. Retail sales and unemployment figures will be considered, but inflation is expected to be the focal point.
- With inflation in focus, investors must also consider ECB commentary. ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak, and the market's reaction to Eurozone inflation numbers will likely influence the DAX's movement.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: The DAX responded to German inflation figures, with softer-than-expected annual inflation supporting expectations of an H1 2024 ECB rate cut. Pre-inflation gains were also driven by positive data from Italy and Eurozone economic sentiment figures. The US Q3 economic expansion introduced uncertainty, but the DAX recovered. Retail sales, Eurozone inflation, and ECB commentary, especially from President Lagarde, will be crucial factors influencing the DAX's direction in the coming sessions. Investors are closely monitoring these developments to gauge the market sentiment and potential trends in the DAX.