EURUSD
- Current Performance: The EUR/USD lost control of a near-term bullish recovery, testing into fresh two-week lows near the 1.0800 handle as momentum drains out of the pair.
- Upcoming European Data: A slew of European data is slated for Tuesday, with both German and pan-EU GDP update figures due during the Europe market session. QoQ German GDP is expected to ease to 0.1% in Q2 compared to the previous print of 0.2%.
- Inflation Forecast: Preliminary EU Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation is due on Wednesday, with YoY HICP inflation forecast to tick down to 2.8% from the previous 2.9%.
- Federal Reserve Rate Decision: The Federal Reserve's upcoming rate call on Wednesday will be closely watched by investors who are hoping for signs that the Fed is gearing up to implement a widely anticipated rate cut.
- Market Expectations: The market is generally expecting a minimum 0.25% rate cut on September 18, with rate markets indicating a 90% likelihood of a 25-basis point reduction and a hopeful 10% chance of a larger cut, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling |
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Closing statement: The EUR/USD pair faces downward pressure near 1.0800 amid waning momentum. Key European GDP and inflation data, along with the Federal Reserve's rate decision, will be crucial in determining near-term direction. The market heavily anticipates a Fed rate cut, which could influence further movement in the pair.
GBPUSD
- Current Performance: GBP/USD trades with mild losses near 1.2850 in the European session on Tuesday.
- Recent Highs: GBP/USD punched in a fresh 12-month high the week before last, but a lack of bullish momentum has dragged bids back down.
- BoE Rate Decision: The Bank of England is broadly expected to deliver a quarter-point rate trim later this week on Thursday, but odds are still up in the air with the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) forecast to vote 5–to-4 in favor of a 25-bps rate cut.
- US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP): US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are due on Friday. They are a key component of the Fed’s employment mandate, and investors will be looking for a continued cooling in hiring figures to help push the Fed into a new rate-cutting cycle in September.
- ADP Employment Change: ADP Employment Change figures for July will be published tomorrow and will serve as a forecast for Friday’s NFP jobs report, albeit a shaky one with a spotty track record for accuracy.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling |
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Closing statement: GBP/USD is experiencing mild losses near 1.2850 amidst expectations of a BoE rate cut and upcoming key US employment data. The pair's direction will heavily depend on the BoE's decision and US NFP figures, which could influence market sentiment and potential rate cuts by the Fed in September.
GOLD
- Current Performance: Gold price witnessed good two-way price action on Monday, initially extending last week’s late recovery before sellers returned on a failure to resist above the $2,400 threshold.
- Middle East Tensions: The advance in gold price could be associated with fresh tensions in the Middle East over the weekend.
- Current Trading: Gold price is treading water below $2,390 early Tuesday, as gold traders turn to the sidelines ahead of a bunch of upcoming high-high macro news from the US and Europe.
- Policy Announcements: Traders seem non-committal and refrain from placing fresh bets on the gold price, as the policy announcements from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), due on Wednesday, remain in the spotlight.
- Economic Data: Besides, they also brace for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reports from Germany and the Eurozone slated for release later on Tuesday. Germany is also due to publish its inflation data.
Closing statement: Gold price hovers below $2,390 as traders await key macroeconomic announcements from the US and Europe, including the Fed and BoJ policy meetings and GDP reports from Germany and the Eurozone. Market participants remain cautious, avoiding new positions in anticipation of potential market-moving data.
CRUDE OIL
- Current Performance: West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $76.25 on Tuesday. WTI price extends its decline to the lowest level since June 10.
- Fed Influence: Traders will also take more cues from the Fed Press Conference for the interest rate cut path. Any dovish messages from the US central bank could be positive for risk-sensitive assets like WTI price.
- China's Fuel Imports: China's total fuel oil imports fell by 11% in the first half of 2024, according to the data released earlier this month.
- Middle East Tensions: The market reaction to the recent Middle East conflict has been muted. However, escalating geopolitical tensions might disrupt oil supplies and lift the WTI price.
- Upcoming Data: Caixin Manufacturing PMI for July and the Fed’s policy meeting will guide the next move in the Oil price.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling |
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Closing statement: WTI trades near $76.25 as the market awaits cues from the Fed's policy meeting and Caixin Manufacturing PMI data. Potential disruptions from escalating Middle East tensions could support prices, while China's reduced fuel oil imports and Fed rate decisions will be critical in determining the next direction for crude oil.
DAX
- Economic Indicators: German GDP and inflation figures will influence ECB rate cut bets and market risk sentiment today.
- Growth Forecast: Economists forecast the German economy to expand by 0.1% in Q2 2024 after 0.2% growth in Q1 2024, while economists expect the annual inflation rate to remain at 2.2% in June.
- Corporate Earnings: Beyond the German economic calendar, corporate earnings are also crucial. Marck & Co, Covestro, and Airbus are among the names to report earnings. Weak earnings and gloomy forecasts could adversely impact market risk sentiment.
- US Data Influence: Today, US consumer confidence and labor market data may influence market risk sentiment.
- Forecasts: Economists forecast the CB Consumer Confidence Index to drop from 100.4 in June to 99.9 in July, while they forecast JOLTS Job Openings to fall from 8.14 million in May to 8.05 million in June.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Neutral |
Closing statement: DAX is poised for a dynamic trading session as German GDP and inflation figures, along with key corporate earnings, set the stage for market sentiment. Weak earnings or economic data could dampen investor confidence, while US consumer confidence and labor market data will further guide risk appetite. A measured approach to ECB rate cuts remains likely amid these mixed signals.