EURUSD
- EUR/USD Performance: EUR/USD is struggling around 1.0800 in early European trading on Thursday. The pair is facing pressure due to the sustained strength of the US Dollar and declining risk appetite.
- Market Sentiment: The sustained US Dollar strength is causing the pair to nurse losses. Decreased risk appetite among investors is also contributing to the downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
- Pan-European Consumer Confidence: May's Pan-European Consumer Confidence is expected to remain steady at -14.3. The overall Economic Sentiment Indicator for May is expected to improve slightly to 96.2 from 95.6.
- US Quarterly GDP: Later in the day, the US is set to release its quarterly GDP figures. The Annualized Q1 GDP is forecast to slightly decline to 1.3% from the previous 1.6%.
- US Inflation Data: The week will conclude with US inflation data, focusing on the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. The Core PCE inflation for April is expected to remain unchanged at 0.3% month-on-month.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: EUR/USD remains under pressure around 1.0800, primarily due to the robust US Dollar and diminishing risk appetite. Despite this, there is a slight optimism in the Eurozone with Pan-European Consumer Confidence expected to hold steady and the Economic Sentiment Indicator showing signs of improvement. Attention now shifts to the upcoming US quarterly GDP figures and key inflation data, which are likely to influence the pair's movement further as the week progresses.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Performance: GBP/USD is trading defensively below 1.2700 during the European morning on Thursday.
- US Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index improved to 102.00 in May from 97.5 in April, with the Expectations Index rising to 74.6 from 68.8.
- Consumer Sentiment: Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board, noted that "the strong labor market continued to bolster consumers’ overall assessment of the present situation."
- Upcoming US GDP Data: Investors are focusing on the second estimate of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q1 2024, expected to show a 1.3% growth.
- Additional US Economic Indicators: The US weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Goods Trade Balance, and Pending Home Sales are due later in the day, along with speeches from Fed’s Raphael Bostic, John Williams, and Lorie Logan.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: GBP/USD remains under pressure below 1.2700 in early European trading, influenced by recent improvements in US consumer confidence and expectations. The Conference Board's indexes reflect a strong labour market supporting consumer sentiment. Market participants are now keenly awaiting the second estimate of Q1 US GDP, anticipated to grow by 1.3%, alongside other economic indicators and key speeches from Federal Reserve officials, which will likely drive further movement in the pair.
GOLD
- Gold Price Performance: Gold price is experiencing fresh selling near $2,330, extending the previous decline early Thursday.
- Fed Commentary Impact: Recent hawkish Fed commentary and concerns about persistent inflation have reduced the likelihood of aggressive Fed rate cuts.
- Market Expectations: According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 53% chance that the Fed will hold rates in September, while the probability of a November rate cut is around 60%.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Mounting tensions in the Middle East, which could escalate into a wider regional conflict, are keeping risk-off flows intact.
- Upcoming US Economic Data: Focus remains on the second estimate of Q1 US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, weekly Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales data, alongside speeches from New York Fed President John Williams and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan.
Closing statement: Gold prices are facing renewed selling pressure near $2,330 early Thursday, extending their decline amid hawkish Fed commentary and inflation concerns that have reduced expectations for aggressive rate cuts. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 53% probability of the Fed holding rates in September, with a 60% chance of a November rate cut. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are contributing to a risk-off sentiment. Investors are also closely monitoring upcoming US economic data, including the second estimate of Q1 GDP, weekly Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, and key speeches from Fed officials.
CRUDE OIL
- WTI Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil dipped slightly to around $79.00 per barrel in the European trading session on Thursday.
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: In the previous week, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock indicated a decrease of 6.49 million barrels, contrasting with the 2.48 million barrels added the week prior.
- Impact of Fed Remarks: Hawkish remarks from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari further fueled concerns about potential rate hikes, which negatively impact the US economic outlook and dampen WTI prices.
- Upcoming EIA Report: Traders are keeping an eye on the US crude Oil Stocks Change report from the Energy Information Administration, due later today.
- OPEC+ Meeting: Traders are also awaiting the upcoming meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia (OPEC+), scheduled for June 2.
| SMA (20) | Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising |
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Closing statement: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil dipped slightly to around $79.00 per barrel during European trading on Thursday. This decline follows a significant decrease in API Weekly Crude Oil Stock by 6.49 million barrels, compared to the previous week’s addition of 2.48 million barrels. Hawkish remarks from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari have fuelled concerns about potential rate hikes, negatively impacting the US economic outlook and dampening WTI prices. Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming US crude Oil Stocks Change report from the Energy Information Administration and are also focused on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting scheduled for June 2.
DAX
- German Consumer Confidence: Consumer confidence figures from Germany painted a rosier economic outlook, with the German GfK Consumer Climate Indicator climbing from -24.0 to -20.9 for June.
- German Inflation Impact: German inflation figures had a significant impact on DAX-listed stocks, with the annual inflation rate increasing from 2.2% to 2.4% in May. Rising inflationary pressures could reduce investor bets on multiple post-June ECB rate cuts.
- Eurozone Economic Data: Unemployment and economic sentiment numbers for the Eurozone will warrant investor attention on Thursday. Economists forecast the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 6.5% in April, with the Economic Sentiment Index expected to increase from 95.6 to 96.2 in May.
- ECB Commentary: Beyond the numbers, investors should consider ECB commentary, as views on inflation and the ECB interest rate trajectory could move the dial.
- US Economic Data: Later today, GDP and jobless claims figures from the US will attract investor attention.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling |
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Closing statement: German consumer confidence showed improvement, with the GfK Consumer Climate Indicator rising from -24.0 to -20.9 for June. However, DAX-listed stocks felt the impact of rising German inflation, as the annual rate increased from 2.2% to 2.4% in May, potentially affecting expectations for multiple post-June ECB rate cuts. Eurozone unemployment and economic sentiment data, forecasted to remain stable or improve, will be crucial for investors. Additionally, ECB commentary on inflation and interest rate policies will be significant. Later in the day, US GDP and jobless claims data will also be in focus for investors.