Daily Analysis 30/03/2023


EURUSD

EUR/USD fell to 1.0839 after data from Germany's North Rhine-Westphalia showed a slower rise in inflation growth compared to the prior month.

The U.S. dollar edged lower in early European trade on Thursday, with investors waiting for weekly employment and quarterly growth data that may offer insights into future Federal Reserve action.

The official Eurozone March inflation release is set to be released on Friday.

Spanish inflation went down to 3.1% in March from February's 6%, primarily due to lower energy costs.

Closing statement: The markets are watching the employment and growth data due to be released to assess the likelihood of future Fed actions, while waiting for the official release of Eurozone March inflation data. Spanish inflation has declined due to lower energy costs.

SMA (1D) Rising
RSI (1D) Slightly Rising
MACD (1D) Slightly Rising

GBPUSD

GBP/USD rose 0.2% to 1.2341 early in the session.

The DXY, which tracks the dollar against six other currencies, traded just lower at 102.260 and is on course to drop 2% in March.

Bank of America warns that the global currency market is vulnerable to a liquidity crunch later this year as financial conditions tighten, and economic growth slows. They suggest that the lagged effect of bank-credit tightening has yet to fully play out and the economic cycle is likely entering a contractionary phase for growth.

UK credit and money supply data published on Wednesday mostly came out weaker than expected, indicating a continued tightening of financial conditions.

Closing Statement: Overall, GBP/USD has risen slightly, and the dollar is on course to drop in March. However, the global currency market is vulnerable to a liquidity crunch later this year, according to Bank of America, due to the lagged effect of bank-credit tightening and contractionary phase for growth, as well as a continued tightening of financial conditions in the UK. U.S. GDP for Q4 and Unemployment claims will also be announced today.

SMA (1D) Slightly Rising
RSI (1D) Slightly Rising
MACD (1D) Slightly Rising

CRUDE OIL

Oil prices rose Thursday, extending gains from earlier in the week after US crude stocks fell significantly due to the disruption in Kurdish oil exports, which has cut 0.5% of daily global supply and tightened the global supply situation.

US crude oil inventories fell by 7.5 million barrels in the week to March 24, marking the largest decline since late November, according to official data from the US Energy Information Administration.

Crude oil prices have been experiencing significant losses this year due to concerns that a global economic slowdown would reduce crude demand.

Russia's crude production cuts have been lower than expected, which has helped to ease supply concerns.

Closing statement: The disruption in Kurdish oil exports and the fall in US crude stocks has driven oil prices higher, but concerns over the global economic slowdown and the lower-than-expected crude production cuts by Russia continue to weigh on the market.

RSI (1D) Slightly Rising
MACD (1D) Slightly Rising

GOLD

Gold prices fell for the second consecutive day and retreated from the $2,000 level due to a rising dollar and bets that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates.

The increase in Treasury yields also put pressure on gold prices.

The banking sector has stabilized in the past two weeks, leading to a return of risk appetite in the market and a decrease in gold's safe haven appeal.

Despite recent losses, the daily chart still shows that gold prices are in an uptrend, with higher highs and higher lows.

Closing statement: The recent stability in the banking sector and the rising dollar have led to a decrease in gold prices for the second consecutive day, but the precious metal is still in an uptrend on the daily chart.

SMA (1D) Rising
RSI (1D) Neutral
MACD (1D) Neutral

NASDAQ

The NASDAQ100 index has been in its bullish phase and hasn't broken any key support levels in recent weeks.

Traders have shifted their focus from concerns over the banking sector to the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation.

On Wednesday, Wall Street showed solid gains with volatility at its lowest since the US banking tremors three weeks ago.

The performance of tech giants Apple Inc., Alphabet Inc., and Microsoft Corp. has been fuelled by their safe-haven status as fears of contagion in the banking industry have mounted.

Closing statement: With Wall Street posting solid gains and tech giants performing well, the Nasdaq index seems to be holding strong in its bullish phase. However, traders are keeping a close watch on the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation.

SMA (1D) Rising
RSI (1D) Slightly Rising
MACD (1D) Slightly Rising

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