EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: EUR/USD is range-bound near 1.0800 in Tuesday's European session after showing some recovery on Monday, trimming recent multi-week losses.
- Fed Rate Cut Speculation: Market sentiment is mixed regarding the Fed’s policy outlook. Although a 25-basis-point rate cut is anticipated in November, some Fed officials, such as Governor Michelle Bowman and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, have expressed hesitation. Bostic even suggested the Fed might delay the rate cut decision next month.
- ECB’s Rate Stance: ECB policymakers are maintaining a cautious stance on further rate adjustments, emphasizing data dependency. ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated that the bank will proceed with prudence, given economic uncertainties.
- Wunsch’s Statement: Belgian central bank chief Pierre Wunsch also stated there is no need for urgency, allowing the ECB to tolerate modest inflation levels without rushing into aggressive rate cuts.
- Upcoming GDP Data: Investors are looking to the third-quarter GDP data for both Germany and the Eurozone, set to be released on Wednesday. These numbers could provide insights into the region’s economic health and may impact the ECB’s future policy stance.
| SMA (20) | Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling |
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Closing statement: With mixed expectations around rate policy decisions on both sides of the Atlantic, EUR/USD could remain under pressure as investors await key economic data from Europe.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Remains Under Pressure: GBP/USD is trading defensively below 1.3000 in early Tuesday's session, with vulnerability to further declines as downside risks persist.
- BoE Rate Cut Expectations: A Reuters poll shows that economists widely expect the Bank of England (BoE) to reduce its Bank Rate by 0.25% to 4.75% in November, although nearly two-thirds foresee no further change in December.
- BoE Hawkish Remarks: Recent hawkish comments from BoE policymaker Catherine Mann suggest caution on rate cuts, which may help limit the pound's losses amid current market conditions.
- Geopolitical Uncertainty: Rising uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election and Middle East geopolitical tensions is providing support for the US Dollar (USD) as a safe-haven asset.
- Key US Economic Data: Market participants are closely monitoring the US Q3 GDP report and October Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) due later this week. These releases could provide insights into the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory.
GOLD
- Gold Price: Gold (XAU/USD) maintains a positive trend in early Tuesday’s European session, trading above $2,750 and staying close to last week’s record high.
- US Presidential Election: With the US election nearing, the tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is heightening market uncertainty, supporting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
- Geopolitical News: The US issued a warning to Iran at the UN Security Council, cautioning against any further aggression towards Israel following Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military targets. This geopolitical friction is adding to safe-haven demand for gold.
- China's Gold Consumption: China’s gold consumption fell 11.18% in the first three quarters of 2024 due to high prices, weakening jewelry demand according to China’s state-backed gold association. This decline reflects shifting demand dynamics in one of the world’s largest gold markets.
- Upcoming US Economic Data: Investors are eyeing Tuesday’s US economic releases, including the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index and the JOLTS report, which may provide short-term trading cues for XAU/USD.
Closing statement: XAU/USD remains bolstered by election uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and data anticipation, with investors maintaining a cautious approach amid mixed signals on global demand and US economic indicators.
CRUDE OIL
- WTI Price Movement: West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $67.60 on Tuesday, reflecting persistent downward pressure.
- Middle East Tensions: Over the weekend, Israel launched airstrikes targeting Iran’s military installations in response to Iran's recent missile attack, but refrained from hitting Iran’s oil or nuclear facilities, keeping direct impacts on oil supplies minimal.
- China’s Weakening Demand: Economic concerns in China are weighing heavily on oil demand. Recent data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics revealed that industrial profits dropped 27.1% YoY in September, the steepest decline since the pandemic, exacerbating oil market bearishness.
- IEA Demand Forecast: The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global oil demand growth to slow to half the pace of recent years, with China’s weaker outlook as a major contributing factor. This dampens the longer-term demand forecast for WTI.
- Upcoming US Economic Indicators: Investors await key US data, including Q3 GDP data on Wednesday, expected to show 3% growth, and Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday, both of which could affect market sentiment and oil demand expectations.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling |
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Closing statement: Crude oil prices are pressured by economic slowdown fears in China, global demand projections, and restrained geopolitical supply risks, with US data releases expected to offer short-term direction.
DAX
- DAX Performance: The DAX index advanced by 0.35% on Monday, marking a three- day winning streak after a prior 0.11% gain.
- Auto Sector Movers: Auto stocks continue to face demand-related setbacks. Porsche declined 1.63%, while BMW and Mercedes-Benz Group dropped by 0.63% and 0.62%, respectively. Volkswagen also ended the session lower, down 0.46%.
- Consumer Sentiment: The GfK Consumer Climate index for November improved significantly, climbing from -21.0 to -18.3 (above the forecast of -20.5) and reaching its highest since April 2022. This suggests a cautiously improving outlook on consumer sentiment in Germany.
- US Data and Fed Expectations: In Tuesday’s US session, investors will watch the JOLTS job openings and consumer confidence figures closely. A larger-than-expected drop in job openings or weak consumer confidence could heighten expectations of a December rate cut by the Fed, which may influence the DAX’s performance.
- Corporate Earnings: Corporate earnings could overshadow economic data, with key companies like Adidas, Alphabet Inc., HSBC, McDonald’s, and Visa Inc. set to release their earnings, potentially impacting market sentiment.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: The DAX continues its upward trend, supported by improving consumer sentiment in Germany, though pressure remains on the auto sector. US economic data and corporate earnings will likely steer short-term market moves.