Daily Analysis 28/12/2022

While there was no important data flow announced yesterday on the European front, developments regarding the agenda were followed. In Germany, which has the largest economy in Europe, companies evaluated that a moderate recession could be experienced next year. The US trade deficit narrowed to $83.3 billion in November, down $15.5 billion from the previous month. The deficit fell to its lowest level in nearly two years in November due to the decline in imports. The housing price index in the country continued its decline in October due to high loan rates and concerns about the economy.

We are in a week where the data flow is calm in the UK. On the US side, the S&P Case-Shiller house price index increased by 8.6% year-on-year in October, the lowest increase since October 2020. While the goods trade deficit in the country decreased by 15.6% to 83.35 billion dollars in November, the decrease in imports was effective in the decrease in the deficit. On the other hand, wholesale stocks in the country increased by 1% in November, above the expectations. Today, there is no significant data flow other than pending home sales in the USA. While the dollar index showed a downward trend, albeit limited, yesterday, a downward trend was observed in the parity.

In global markets, movements are observed above the level of 1800 $ per ounce. The dollar index is at 104.25 this morning. Worries about the recession weaken the risk appetite in the markets, and therefore it is seen that it causes an upward movement in the ounce. There are data to be announced from the USA today, but its impact can be expected to be limited. Recession concerns may still remain on the agenda. Due to the fact that it is the last week of the year, the holiday complacency also causes weak reactions in the markets. Therefore, unless there is a possible situation for this week, cautious movements in the markets can be maintained.

The S&P 500 index closed yesterday at 3,830 with an increase of 0.04%. Concerns about recession in global markets are putting pressure on risk appetite. This causes volatility in the stock markets from time to time. Stock markets were closed on Monday due to the Christmas holiday. Mixed movements were observed in the US stock markets yesterday. It contains secondary-level data to be released from the USA today. The effect of these data may not create volatility on the stock markets. It can be expected that the concerns about the recession will remain effective on the pricing. Due to the fact that it is the last week of the year, the trading volume may be weak and horizontal movements can be seen. US futures are mixed this morning.