EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: The EUR/USD pair trades near 1.0550 on Thursday, weighed down by French political uncertainties and a strengthening US Dollar. Renewed risk aversion supports USD demand, further pressuring the Euro.
- US Inflation Report: October’s US inflation data showed robust consumer spending but little progress in reducing inflation, keeping Federal Reserve policymakers cautious. This has boosted expectations of a slower pace of rate cuts, supporting the USD against the EUR.
- Bearish Sentiment for the Eurozone: The Euro remains under pressure as ECB officials voice concerns about sluggish Eurozone economic growth. With expectations of further rate cuts, the Euro faces limited upside potential.
- German CPI Data: Preliminary German CPI inflation data for November is a key focus for Thursday. A significant decline in inflation could reinforce ECB dovishness, adding to the bearish sentiment around the Euro.
- Eurozone HICP Inflation: Traders await Friday’s Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for additional cues. Any deviation from expectations could significantly impact market direction for the EUR/USD pair.
| SMA (20) | Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling |
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Closing statement: EUR/USD remains under pressure as the Eurozone faces economic headwinds and the US Dollar strengthens on solid economic data. Key inflation reports from Germany and the Eurozone will be pivotal in shaping near-term sentiment for the pair.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD pair trades near 1.2650 on Thursday as the US Dollar gains strength amid deteriorating global risk sentiment. The haven demand for the USD weighs on the Pound Sterling despite its recent resilience.
- US PCE Inflation: The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose to 2.3% year-over-year in October, up from 2.1% in September. This suggests persistent inflationary pressures, supporting the USD and limiting the pair's upside.
- US Market Activity: Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday and shortened trading hours on Friday are likely to result in subdued US market activity. However, upcoming US economic data may still shape sentiment.
- BoE December Rate Decision: Market expectations surrounding the Bank of England's December policy decision are a key driver for the GBP. Investors are cautious following BoE Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli's call for more evidence of easing inflation before considering further rate cuts.
- GBP’s Path: The lack of high-impact UK data leaves the GBP vulnerable to external factors like USD strength and global sentiment. Any surprise economic indicators could shift the market outlook ahead of the BoE meeting.
| SMA (20) | Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling |
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Closing statement: GBP/USD remains under pressure as USD strength dominates amidst rising US inflation and global risk aversion. Traders will closely monitor evolving sentiment around the BoE's December meeting for further cues.
GOLD
- Gold Price: Gold prices edge lower during Thursday’s early European session, reversing a two-day recovery. Thin market liquidity due to Thanksgiving and prevailing bearish sentiment contribute to this downward trend.
- Bearish Technical Indicators: The technical outlook remains negative, with a Bear Cross formation and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipping to 47, signaling further downside pressure. Resistance remains strong, capping bullish attempts.
- Market Jitters: Reports of upcoming US measures to limit China’s AI development have fueled a tech sell-off across Asian markets, renewing risk-off sentiment. However, this has yet to significantly boost gold's safe-haven demand.
- Fed’s Inflation Data: The core PCE Price Index rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year in October, meeting expectations. This data suggests steady inflationary pressures, supporting the case for cautious Fed rate cuts, which keeps gold under pressure.
- Holiday Trading: With US traders away for Thanksgiving, thin liquidity could lead to exaggerated price moves in gold. Traders should exercise caution amid potentially amplified volatility in the precious metal.
Closing statement: Gold remains vulnerable amid technical weakness and steady US inflation data. While thin market liquidity may heighten volatility, gold’s immediate outlook hinges on broader market sentiment and geopolitical developments.
CRUDE OIL
- WTI Crude Price: WTI crude oil is trading around $68.60 per barrel, with prices easing slightly after Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah militants agreed to a ceasefire effective Wednesday, reducing geopolitical risk in the Middle East.
- US Crude Inventories Decline: The EIA's weekly report showed a 1.844-million-barrel draw in US crude oil stockpiles for the week ending November 22, exceeding expectations of a 1.3 million barrel decline. This provides some support to oil prices amidst otherwise subdued sentiment.
- OPEC+ Meeting Delay: OPEC+ has postponed its online meeting to December 5, raising questions about potential changes to production policy. The meeting was scheduled for December 1, with market participants speculating on the possibility of further delays in planned output hikes.
- EIA Crude Stock Data: Investors look forward to additional data from the EIA regarding crude stockpile changes. Any significant deviation from the expected 1.3 million barrel draw could impact short-term oil price movements.
- Geopolitical and Demand Dynamics in Play: While geopolitical tensions have eased, broader market sentiment remains cautious. The focus will shift to global demand signals, particularly from major importers like China and India, to determine the longer- term outlook for crude oil.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling |
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Closing statement: WTI crude remains sensitive to geopolitical developments and inventory data. The market may face near-term volatility, especially with the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and ongoing evaluation of demand trends.
DAX
- DAX Price: The DAX declined by 0.18% on Wednesday, extending its 0.56% loss from Tuesday. Sentiment remains weighed down by Germany's deteriorating economy and uncertainty surrounding potential US tariffs on European goods, impacting export- heavy sectors.
- Market Movers: Risk-off sentiment hit tech and retail stocks hard. Infineon Technologies and SAP fell by 1.41% and 1.37%, respectively. Retail-linked stocks were also under pressure due to weak consumer sentiment, with Zalando losing 2.05% and Adidas dropping 0.72%.
- GfK Consumer Sentiment: Germany’s GfK Consumer Sentiment Indicator dropped sharply, falling from -18.4 for November to -23.3 for December. The worsening sentiment highlights potential challenges for domestic consumption, a critical driver of the German economy.
- Inflation Figures: German inflation figures due Thursday are expected to show an uptick, with an annual rate increase from 2.0% in October to 2.3% in November.
- ECB Commentary: ECB’s Isabel Schnabel’s comments on limited scope for further rate cuts added to investor unease, as structural factors weigh on economic growth.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising |
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Closing statement: The DAX remains under pressure, with weak economic indicators and cautious ECB messaging compounding concerns. Upcoming inflation data and geopolitical developments will be critical in shaping investor confidence.