EURUSD
- Lack of Traction: the EUR/USD struggles to find upward momentum and remains confined within a narrow range slightly above the 1.0800 level. The currency pair faces challenges amid subdued market sentiment and a lack of significant catalysts to drive movement.
- German Retail Sales Data: Germany's Retail Sales declined by 1.9% on a monthly basis in February, signaling weakness in consumer spending and dampening prospects for economic growth. This negative data exerts downward pressure on the Euro, limiting its ability to attract buyers.
- ECB Rate Cut Speculation: ECB board member Cipollone's remarks underscore the case for a rate cut, citing moderating wage growth in the eurozone. This commentary reinforces market expectations for potential monetary policy easing by the ECB, weighing on the Euro's performance.
- Federal Reserve Stance: Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller maintains a cautious approach, emphasizing the need to monitor persistent inflation data before considering rate cuts. His stance contrasts with expectations for ECB easing, contributing to the Euro's relative weakness against the US Dollar.
- Atlanta Fed President's Outlook: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic shares a similar cautious sentiment, anticipating only one rate cut this year and warning against premature policy actions that could disrupt economic stability. Such remarks align with the Fed's cautious approach and further support the US Dollar relative to the Euro.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling |
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Closing statement: EUR/USD struggles to gain ground amidst subdued market sentiment and weak German retail sales data. Speculation surrounding potential ECB rate cuts contrasts with the Federal Reserve's cautious stance, contributing to the Euro's lack of traction against the US Dollar. As investors await further developments in central bank policies, EUR/USD remains confined within a tight trading range above the 1.0800 level.
GBPUSD
- Defensive Stance: GBP/USD maintains a defensive position below the 1.2650 level in European trading on Thursday, reflecting cautious market sentiment and ongoing pressure on the British Pound.
- Bearish Momentum: Technical indicators suggest a buildup of bearish momentum for GBP/USD, indicating potential downward pressure on the currency pair. However, sellers may hesitate to push the pair below the key support level of 1.2600 without significant fundamental developments.
- Fed Governor's Remarks: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's comments on Thursday emphasize the central bank's patient approach to monetary policy, indicating a reluctance to implement rate cuts hastily. This stance contrasts with market expectations for potential easing measures, which could influence GBP/USD dynamics.
- BoE Governor's Outlook: Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey's remarks suggest that interest rate cuts are under consideration for future BoE policy meetings, signaling a dovish stance. Such comments contribute to the downward pressure on the British Pound against the US Dollar.
- Upcoming Economic Events: Market participants await key economic events, including a speech by the BoE’s C. Mann and the release of final UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth numbers for Q4. Additionally, US GDP annualized figures, weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index are scheduled for later in the day, which could impact GBP/USD movement.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling |
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Closing statement: GBP/USD maintains a defensive stance below the 1.2650 level amid cautious market sentiment and technical indications of bearish momentum. Comments from Federal Reserve and Bank of England officials influence market expectations for monetary policy, adding to the volatility of the currency pair. As investors await key economic data releases, GBP/USD remains sensitive to developments on both sides of the Atlantic.
GOLD
- Downward Movement: Gold price mirrors Wednesday's Asian trading pattern, experiencing a decline below the $2,000 mark early Wednesday, signaling a continuation of the bearish sentiment.
- Cautionary Tone from Japan: Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi's warning against excessive currency moves adds to the market's cautious sentiment, potentially impacting safe-haven assets like gold.
- Hawkish Fed Commentary: Fed Governor Christopher Waller's hawkish stance on monetary policy, expressed during a speech at the Economic Club of New York, strengthens the US Dollar and drives a fresh uptick in US Treasury bond yields, exerting downward pressure on the non-interest-bearing gold price.
- Market Caution: Ahead of Good Friday's release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, investors exercise caution, which may limit significant movements in the gold price.
- Upcoming Economic Data: Attention shifts to key economic indicators from the US, including the final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimate, weekly Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, and Personal Spending data, which could offer insights into the timing and scope of potential Fed interest rate cuts, influencing gold price dynamics.
Closing statement: Gold price continues its downward trajectory below the $2,000 level, reflecting prevailing bearish sentiment amid cautious market conditions. Japan's warning on excessive currency moves and hawkish commentary from Fed Governor Christopher Waller contribute to the strengthening of the US Dollar, weighing on the safe-haven appeal of gold. As investors await crucial economic data releases from the US, including the PCE Price Index and GDP estimate, gold price movements remain susceptible to shifts in market sentiment and expectations regarding monetary policy.
CRUDE OIL
- Steady Trading: Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil benchmark maintains stability, trading around $82.00 on Wednesday, indicating a lack of significant directional movement.
- Dollar Strength: Hawkish remarks from a US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymaker early Thursday contribute to a broad-based strengthening of the US Dollar, exerting downward pressure on crude oil prices denominated in USD.
- Surprise Inventory Build: The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports a notable increase in US crude oil inventories by 3.165 million barrels for the week ending March 22, contrasting with the previous week's decline of 1.952 million barrels. This unexpected build in inventories adds to the bearish sentiment surrounding WTI prices.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, with Ukraine intensifying its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, raises concerns about potential disruptions to global oil supply. The recent surge in drone attacks further underscores geopolitical uncertainties impacting oil markets.
- Upcoming Economic Data: Oil traders await the release of the US Gross Domestic Product Annualized (GDP) for the fourth quarter (Q4) on Thursday, with expectations for steady growth at 3.2%. This data will be closely monitored for insights into the health of the US economy and its potential impact on oil demand.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising |
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Closing statement: WTI crude oil prices trade steadily around $82.00 amid mixed market dynamics. While hawkish comments from a Fed policymaker bolster the US Dollar, unexpected inventory buildups and geopolitical tensions contribute to downward pressure on oil prices. As investors await key economic data releases, including US GDP figures, the direction of WTI crude oil prices remains uncertain, influenced by a combination of supply-demand fundamentals and geopolitical developments.
DAX
- Mixed Economic Indicators: On Wednesday, the Consumer Confidence Index for the Eurozone improved slightly from -15.5 to -14.9 in March, while Economic Sentiment also saw a marginal uptick from 95.5 to 96.3. Despite these improvements, German Retail Sales declined by 1.9% on a monthly basis in February, posing challenges for the Euro and dampening investor sentiment.
- ECB Commentary: ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone's remarks align with recent commentary, indicating growing confidence in inflation returning to the 2% target. Such sentiments may influence market expectations regarding ECB policy decisions, potentially impacting investor sentiment towards DAX-listed stocks.
- German Unemployment Data: Today's release of German unemployment figures is anticipated to provide insights into near-term trends for wage growth. Economists expect the German unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.9% in March. Any deviations from these forecasts could affect investor confidence in the German economy and consequently impact DAX performance.
- Continued Monitoring of ECB Commentary: Investors are advised to stay vigilant regarding ECB commentary, particularly regarding support for a potential ECB rate cut in June. Any indications of monetary policy adjustments could significantly influence investor behavior and demand for DAX-listed stocks.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: The DAX faces mixed signals from economic indicators, with improvements in Eurozone Consumer Confidence and Economic Sentiment offset by a decline in German Retail Sales. As investors await the release of German unemployment data, attention remains focused on ECB commentary, which may provide insights into future monetary policy decisions. Overall, uncertainty persists in the DAX as investors navigate through varying economic signals and monitor central bank communications for clues about future market movements.