EURUSD
- EUR/USD maintains its winning streak, hovering around the psychological level at 1.0950 during the Asian session on Monday, supported by positive momentum.
- EUR/USD maintains its winning streak, hovering around the psychological level at 1.0950 during the Asian session on Monday, supported by positive momentum.
- German data showed improvement, with the headline German IFO Business Climate Index rising to 87.3 in November from 86.9 in October, adding to the positive sentiment for the Euro.
- In an interview, European Central Bank policymaker Pierre Wunsch expressed skepticism about market pricing of rate cuts, considering it "very optimistic" and suggesting a potential need for more tightening.
- The overall positive momentum for EUR/USD is influenced by a mix of data, including the US economic performance and statements from ECB officials. Market expectations, particularly regarding rate cuts, remain a significant factor in shaping the Euro's trajectory.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: EUR/USD's positive streak is driven by a weaker US Dollar, mixed US economic data, favorable German IFO Business Climate figures, and cautious remarks from ECB policymakers about market expectations. The pair's future direction hinges on ongoing economic indicators and central bank communications.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD trades around 1.2620 during the Asian session on Monday, aiming to extend gains for the third consecutive session, reflecting positive momentum.
- The GBP/USD pair gains support from a hawkish stance from Bank of England (BoE) officials. BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill, in a Financial Times interview, emphasized the central bank's commitment to battling inflation and the necessity to maintain a tight monetary policy.
- Positive PMI readings from the UK contribute to Pound Sterling's resilience. The data indicates that the private sector returned to the expansion territory in early November, reinforcing the optimistic outlook for the British economy.
- BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's recent hawkish comments underline the need for higher interest rates to be sustained over an extended period, aligning with the overall tone of the central bank.
- GBP/USD's ability to maintain its upward trajectory is underpinned by a combination of central bank communications, economic indicators, and overall market sentiment, contributing to the Pound's strength against the US Dollar.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: GBP/USD continues its positive momentum, benefiting from a hawkish BoE tone, upbeat UK PMI readings, and Governor Andrew Bailey's emphasis on the necessity of prolonged higher interest rates. Ongoing developments in central bank communication and economic data will influence the pair's future movements.
GOLD
- Gold price, after reaching a six-month high at $2,018 in early Asia on Monday, consolidates well above the $2,000 mark, reflecting a cautious stance as the market enters a critical week dominated by key inflation data.
- Despite the market optimism during the Thanksgiving week, risk-off flows reenter Monday's Asian trading. This shift occurs despite China's efforts to boost financial support for private firms and positive Chinese Industrial Profits data.
- The lack of specific details from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) regarding its notice for additional stimulus measures for private firms contributes to investor caution. Concerns about a surge in respiratory illnesses in China also impact sentiment.
- Markets are trading cautiously, anticipating the release of the US Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the PCE Price Index, later in the week. The data is expected to influence bets for a Fed rate cut in May. Additionally, Eurozone inflation data will offer insights into the European Central Bank's interest rate outlook.
- The upcoming US and Eurozone inflation data are crucial factors that will likely have a significant impact on Gold, which is a non-interest-bearing asset. The results will influence market expectations regarding central banks' monetary policy decisions.
Closing statement: Gold price, consolidating above $2,000, faces a cautious market sentiment marked by risk-off flows, concerns over Chinese developments, and anticipation of critical US and Eurozone inflation data. The outcome of these data releases will play a pivotal role in shaping the future trajectory of the non-interest-bearing precious metal.
CRUDE OIL
- Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is currently trading around $75.00 on Monday, reflecting the prevailing sentiment in the oil market.
- WTI experiences a loss of momentum as oil traders adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of the upcoming Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) meeting scheduled for Thursday.
- Anticipation surrounds the OPEC+ decision on whether to deepen output cuts in the coming year. The outcome of this meeting could significantly influence selling pressure or buying interest in WTI prices.
- The International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests an anticipation of a slight surplus in global oil markets in 2024. This projection holds, even if OPEC+ nations extend their production cuts into the following year, indicating a nuanced outlook.
- Oil traders shift their attention to key US economic indicators, including the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized for the third quarter (Q3) on Wednesday and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation on Thursday. These data points are expected to provide fresh impetus for the oil market.
| SMA (20) | Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Neutral |
Closing statement: WTI crude oil, currently trading at $75.00, faces a cautious market sentiment marked by anticipation around the OPEC+ meeting and the IEA's projection of a slight surplus in global oil markets. Oil traders await the outcome of these events while keeping a keen eye on upcoming US economic indicators for potential market shifts.
DAX
- Q3 GDP numbers, released on Friday, tested buyer demand for DAX-listed stocks early in the session. The German economy contracted by 0.4% year-over-year in Q3, slightly worse than the initial estimate of a 0.3% contraction.
- Despite the economic contraction, German business confidence showed signs of improvement in November. The Ifo Business Climate Index rose from 86.9 to 87.3, providing further indications of a positive shift in the macroeconomic environment.
- Better-than-expected US Services PMI numbers on Friday raised optimism about a soft landing in the US. However, the impact on sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path was limited.
- On Monday, ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak. Market participants will closely watch for any references to inflation, the economic outlook, and the ECB's rate path, as these factors can significantly influence the DAX.
- There are no euro area economic indicators on Monday that could sway the DAX. The focus remains on Lagarde's speech and external factors influencing the global economic landscape.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: The DAX navigated Q3 GDP figures and demonstrated resilience, buoyed by improved German business confidence. The market awaits insights from ECB President Lagarde's speech, with a focus on inflation and the economic outlook, while external factors continue to shape sentiment in the absence of euro area economic indicators.