EURUSD
- German Consumer Confidence: The EUR/USD declined to the 1.0680 region on Wednesday after the German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey for July unexpectedly ticked lower.
- Lack of Data Impact: The absence of significant data during the American trading session left investors focusing on the Federal Reserve's cautious stance, which has reduced the likelihood of imminent rate cuts.
- US New Home Sales Decline: US New Home Sales for May showed an -11.3% decline month-over-month, significantly worse than the previous month's revised figure of 2.0% (initially reported as -4.7%).
- Upcoming EU Confidence Data: Confidence survey releases, including the pan-EU Business Climate, Consumer Confidence, and Economic Sentiment Indicator, are scheduled for release on Thursday during the European market window.
- Upcoming US Economic Data: Thursday's American trading session will feature US Durable Goods Orders, revisions to first-quarter GDP, and weekly Initial Jobless Claims.
| SMA (20) | Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling |
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Closing statement: The EUR/USD is under pressure, retreating to the 1.0680 level due to weaker-than-expected German consumer confidence data. The Federal Reserve's cautious outlook has also contributed to the subdued sentiment, alongside a significant decline in US New Home Sales. Investors will be closely monitoring upcoming confidence surveys from the EU and key economic data from the US on Thursday, which could provide further direction for the EUR/USD pair.
GBPUSD
- Price Movement: GBP/USD rebounds from its lowest level since mid-May but lacks sustained buying interest.
- Limited Economic Data: Wednesday saw minimal scheduled economic releases, with the UK absent from the economic calendar. US New Home Sales for May showed an -11.3% decline MoM, sharply revised from the previous month's initial print of -4.7% to 2.0%.
- BoE Rate Cut Bets: Increasing speculation about a potential rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in August may weaken the British Pound (GBP) and limit gains for the GBP/USD pair, especially ahead of the UK general election on July 4.
- BoE Financial Stability Report: The BoE's latest Financial Stability Report will be released early in the London market session. This will be followed by US Durable Goods Orders, revisions to first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and weekly Initial Jobless Claims.
- End-of-Week Data: Friday will feature the UK's quarterly GDP revisions, expected to remain steady at 0.6% QoQ. Additionally, the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) inflation for May will be released later in the day.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling |
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Closing statement: The GBP/USD pair finds some support, bouncing off its mid-May lows, but remains constrained by a lack of significant economic data and rising bets on a BoE rate cut in August. Investors are cautious ahead of the UK general election and upcoming key economic reports, including the BoE Financial Stability Report, US Durable Goods Orders, and GDP revisions, which could provide further direction for the pair.
GOLD
- US Dollar Movement: The US Dollar (USD) fails to maintain its position near two-month highs against major currencies, despite a negative market mood and higher US Treasury bond yields.
- US Housing Data: On Wednesday, data revealed that sales of new US single-family homes dropped to a six-month low in May due to increased mortgage rates affecting demand.
- Fed Commentary: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman stated earlier this week that it is still premature to lower the policy rate.
- Market Sentiment: A broader market risk-off sentiment, ahead of Friday’s US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data and Sunday’s French election, may provide some support to gold prices.
- Upcoming Economic Data: Investors will be closely watching the US first-quarter final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revision, Pending Home Sales, and Durable Goods Orders data for further insights into the health of the economy. These reports could offer fresh clues on the timing of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) first interest rate cut this year.
Closing statement: The gold price hovers near a fresh weekly low around $2,310 in Asian trading on Wednesday, influenced by the US Dollar's inability to hold recent gains and mixed market sentiment. Market participants are cautious ahead of key economic data releases later in the week, which could provide further direction for the precious metal and indications of the Fed's next policy moves.
CRUDE OIL
- Price Movement: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices edge lower to near $80.70 during the European session on Thursday, retreating further from a two-month high of $81.80.
- US Crude Oil Stocks: On Wednesday, US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed that US Crude Oil Stocks Change increased by 3.591 million barrels in the week ending June 21, defying market expectations for a 3.000-million-barrel decline.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine could further fuel oil prices, adding a layer of uncertainty to the market.
- US Crude Oil Imports: Last month, US crude oil imports surged to their highest level in nearly two years, driven by refiners acquiring heavy crudes from Canada and Latin America to produce fuels for the summer driving season.
- Import Statistics: In May, US crude oil imports reached 3.1 million barrels per day (bpd), the highest since July 2022, according to ship tracking service Kpler. So far this month, imports have remained robust, averaging around 2.9 million bpd, as reported by Reuters.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: WTI crude oil prices have edged lower, continuing their retreat from recent highs, influenced by unexpected increases in US crude oil stocks and robust import levels. Market participants remain cautious, keeping an eye on geopolitical tensions and upcoming data releases for further direction.
DAX
- French Election Impact: Round 1 of the French Election looms, putting France in the spotlight. The potential for a far-left or far-right win could derail ECB plans for multiple 2024 interest rate cuts.
- Overshadowed Economic Data: French politics overshadowed economic data from Germany that supported a Q3 2024 ECB rate cut.
- German Consumer Climate: The German GfK Consumer Climate Indicator unexpectedly fell from -21.0 to -21.8 for July. Significantly, the Willingness to Save Indicator advanced, while the Willingness to Buy Indicator softened, signaling a gloomy economic outlook.
- Airbus Performance: Airbus extended its losses from Tuesday, sliding by 2.82% as investors continued reacting to the recent profit warning and lower forecast for plane deliveries.
- Upcoming Eurozone Data: Economic data for the Eurozone will garner investor attention on Thursday, June 27. Economic Sentiment and Consumer Inflation Expectations could influence the ECB rate path.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling |
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Closing statement: The DAX faces a cautious outlook as political uncertainties in France and mixed economic signals from Germany weigh on investor sentiment. Upcoming Eurozone economic data will be closely watched for further indications on the ECB's rate path.