EURUSD
- EUR/USD rose 0.1% to 1.1046 amid a weakening US dollar in early European trade on Thursday.
- Concerns over banking contagion risks, a slowing economy, and a debt ceiling standoff have contributed to the dollar weakness.
- First-quarter US GDP data, due later today, is waited for further cues on the potential slowdown in the world's largest economy.
- European economic data calendar includes Eurozone sentiment indexes, consumer and business sentiment readings for Italy, retail sales, and unemployment rate in Spain.
- The overnight peak for EUR/USD was 1.1096, the highest since April last year.
- The current dollar weakness has benefited the euro.
| SMA (1D) | Slighty Rising |
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| RSI (1D) | Slightly Rising |
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| MACD (1D) | Neutral |
Closing statement: With the release of the US GDP data, the market will have a better understanding of the state of the US economy, which may impact the exchange rate between EUR/USD in the short-term.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD was trading flat this morning at 1.2467, continuing the ranging motion that started after the early April rally highs.
- The DXY, which tracks the dollar against six other currencies, traded flat at 101.415, after an overnight fall of 0.4%, when it touched a near two-week low of 101.00.
- Investors' focus is now on the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, which is expected to show that inflation remained sticky and well above the central bank's 2% target in March.
- The data comes ahead of a Fed meeting next week, where the bank is widely expected to hike interest rates by 25 basis points.
| SMA (1D) | Slightly Rising |
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| RSI (1D) | Neutral | |||
| MACD (1D) | Slightly Falling |
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Closing statement: GBP/USD was relatively unchanged this morning, and the market's attention has shifted towards the PCE index, which is expected to provide more information about the inflation outlook and the Fed's monetary policy stance. Investors will also be monitoring the upcoming Fed meeting where an interest rate hike is anticipated.
GOLD
- Gold prices rose 0.65% to get back above $2000 level this morning as traders are waiting for the data on U.S. economic growth and the PCE index which is an inflation gauge, although high safe haven demand kept the it near key levels.
- High interest rates, elevated inflation, and slowing manufacturing activity are expected to have taken a toll on the economy over the past three months.
- Despite signs of slowing growth, several Fed officials called for more rate hikes this year, especially as inflation remains well above the central bank’s target range.
- Gold generally benefited in recent sessions from safe haven demand, following a string of weak earnings on Wall Street, as well as resurgent fears of a banking crisis.
Closing statement: Gold prices continue to be influenced by a range of factors including economic data, inflation, interest rates, and safe haven demand. Traders are closely watching the upcoming data on U.S. economic growth and inflation, as well as the Fed's decision on interest rates.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude oil prices dropped almost 4% on Wednesday, extending sharp losses from the previous session with recession fears.
- Crude oil prices edged higher Thursday, helped by a much larger-than-expected drop in weekly U.S. crude inventories, but are on course for a losing week on concerns slowing economic growth will hit future oil demand.
- U.S. crude stocks fell by 5.1 million barrels last week, following a 4.6M barrel draw in the prior week and below the expected 1.5M barrel decrease, according to data from the Energy Information Administration, released late Wednesday.
- Russian oil refineries saw an increase in runs by over 1% in the first quarter of 2023 compared to 2022, with a notable 10% surge in March 2023 versus March 2022, according to sources and Reuters calculations.
| SMA (1D) | Slightly Falling |
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| RSI (1D) | Slightly Rising |
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| MACD (1D) | Falling |
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Closing statement: The crude oil prices have been volatile this week, with concerns over slowing economic growth and recession fears weighing on the market. However, a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude inventories helped to stabilize prices somewhat.
DAX
- DAX40 is still struggling to break the 15,973 resistance point, bouncing back of 20-day moving average this morning looking to come back to test it again.
- The DAX futures contract in Germany traded flat this morning, CAC 40 futures in France traded 0.21% higher, while the FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K. rose 0.12%.
- European stock markets are expected to open lower Thursday, as growing concerns over the health of the U.S. banking industry added to worries about a global economic slowdown.
- Deutsche Bank posted a better-than-expected 9% rise in first-quarter profit, its 11th straight quarterly profit, as income from higher interest rates offset a slump in revenues at the investment bank.
| SMA (1D) | Slightly Rising |
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| RSI (1D) | Slightly Rising |
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| MACD (1D) | Neutral |
Closing statement:The DAX40 continues to struggle with resistance at the 15973 level, while European markets are expected to open lower on Thursday due to concerns over the health of the U.S. banking industry and global economic slowdown. Deutsche Bank's better-than-expected 9% rise in Q1 profits may provide some support to the markets.