Daily Analysis 27/03/2023


EURUSD

The U.S. dollar stabilizes in early European trade Monday amid optimism that the U.S. banking turmoil could be contained, though confidence remains fragile in the sector.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reassure the market that the U.S. banking system is sound.

EUR/USD rises to 1.0762 after falling 0.6% on Friday due to concerns of contagion following the slump in shares of German banking giant Deutsche Bank.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde tells EU leaders on Friday that the euro-area banking sector remains healthy due to a strong regulatory regime.

In summary, while the U.S. dollar has stabilized, there remains uncertainty surrounding the banking sector, particularly in Europe. The reassurance of U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Powell may provide some temporary relief, but investors will be closely monitoring developments in the banking sector moving forward.

SMA (1D) Slightly Rising
RSI (1D) Neutral
MACD (1D) Slightly Rising

GBPUSD

Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari's remarks on the recent stress in the banking sector and possibility of a credit crunch have raised concerns about a U.S. recession.

The market has priced in the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in May and possibly cutting them in the summer, negatively affecting the dollar.

The DXY, which tracks the dollar against a basket of other currencies, is trading slightly higher this morning at 102.243, but still above the seven-week low it hit on Thursday.

Bank of England Governor Bailey is scheduled to speak today at the London School of Economics.

Overall, the GBP/USD market has been impacted by concerns about a possible U.S. recession and the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in May and potentially cutting them in the summer. Investors will be closely watching Bank of England Governor Bailey's speech for further insights into the future direction of the GBP/USD market.

SMA (1D) Slightly Rising
RSI (1D) Slightly Rising
MACD (1D) Slightly Rising

CRUDE OIL

Oil prices increase on Monday as investors assess efforts to contain worries about the global banking system.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's plan to place tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus raises tensions in Europe.

Crude markets are focusing on financial market sentiment, while oil fundamentals remain on the side lines.

Russia is close to reaching its goal of reducing crude output by 500,000 barrels per day to around 9.5 million bpd, according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.

Industrial action in France is causing disruptions in refineries, leading to a decrease in crude demand and fuel production.

While efforts to stabilize the banking system have provided some support to oil prices, tensions in Europe and disruptions in refineries continue to pose risks to the oil market.

SMA (1D) Slightly Falling
RSI (1D) Slightly Rising
MACD (1D) Falling

GOLD

Gold futures achieve a fourth consecutive weekly gain, approaching the $2,000 mark as the U.S.-Europe banking crisis continues.

Despite a rebound in the dollar, investors continue to seek safe-haven assets, with gold being a prominent choice.

Heightened concerns over inflation also contribute to gold's appeal, despite a senior Federal Reserve official's statement indicating only one more U.S. rate increase in the current cycle.

With increased economic policy uncertainty and the possibility of inflation, gold prices are expected to remain supported.

The immediate challenge is at the $2010 mark, with bearish investors trying to push prices down.

Gold's current upward trend is expected to continue, although there may be some short-term volatility.

Overall, gold's status as a safe-haven asset remains intact, as investors continue to navigate through economic uncertainty and market volatility.

SMA (1D) Rising
RSI (1D) Falling
MACD (1D) Rising

NASDAQ

Amid volatility and uncertainty in the financial markets, the Nasdaq 100 has emerged as one of the best-performing assets this year due to the dominance of cash-rich tech mega-caps.

The Nasdaq 100 rose for a third week in four, sitting about 5% above its pre-crisis level.

The index is still testing the 38.2% Fibonacci level as a resistance.

First Citizens BancShares' acquisition of Silicon Valley Bank's deposits and loans has eased concerns about the health of smaller U.S. banks.

There is consensus that the crisis will lead to a tightening of financial conditions, but there is scant agreement on the exact scope of the damage.

Despite the consensus that the financial crisis will lead to tightening of conditions, the Nasdaq 100 has remained resilient thanks to the strong performance of tech mega caps, and the acquisition of Silicon Valley Bank's deposits and loans has helped ease concerns about smaller banks.

SMA (1D) Rising
RSI (1D) Slightly Rising
MACD (1D) Slightly Rising

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