EURUSD
In the last quarter of 2022, the German economy shrank by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter due to the energy crisis and record inflation, and expanded by 0.9% compared to the same quarter of 2021. ECB President. C. Lagarde gave messages at the meeting in March that the bank's interest rate would be increased by 50 points. In the USA, personal expenditures increased by 1.8% in January, above the expectations, while personal incomes increased by 0.6%, below the expectations. While the data signals that the expected easing in inflation has not occurred yet, Fed officials emphasized that interest rate hikes should continue until the fall in inflation is finalized.
Technical Analysis
| Support & Resistance | Level |
|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 1.0672 |
| Resistance 2 | 1.0643 |
| Resistance 1 | 1.0594 |
| Support 1 | 1.0515 |
| Support 2 | 1.0486 |
| Support 3 | 1.0437 |
Daily Pivot Levels
GBPUSD
The resurgence of inflation pressure across the world has a negative impact on risk appetite. The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which was announced on Friday last week and taken into account by the Fed as an indicator of inflation, increased by 0.6 percent monthly and by 4.7 percent annually, exceeding expectations. Analysts stated that these developments supported the dollar against other currencies, pushing the dollar index to the highest level in about two months, and that this situation suppressed commodity prices. The GBP/USD pair is priced at 1.1936 as of this morning.
Technical Analysis
| Support & Resistance | Level |
|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 1.2125 |
| Resistance 2 | 1.2083 |
| Resistance 1 | 1.2011 |
| Support 1 | 1.1897 |
| Support 2 | 1.1856 |
| Support 3 | 1.1783 |
Daily Pivot Levels
XAUUSD
Risk appetite in global markets is weak. Recently, the data released and the speeches of Fed members cause uncertainty about the Fed. While a 25 basis point increase in interest rates for the Fed is considered certain, 50 basis points possibilities are on the table. It is observed that the risk appetite remains weak due to this uncertainty, the dollar continues to gain strength and it causes downward movements in commodities. It can be expected that the data to be announced in the USA today will have a limited impact on pricing. Fed officials may also have speeches during the week. Their statements may have an impact on the course of the markets.
Technical Analysis
| Support & Resistance | Level |
|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 1841 |
| Resistance 2 | 1834 |
| Resistance 1 | 1822 |
| Support 1 | 1804 |
| Support 2 | 1797 |
| Support 3 | 1785 |
Daily Pivot Levels
BRENT OIL
Oil prices started the week with light sales. Recently, it is difficult to talk about a clear direction in oil prices. Expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates and the increase in weekly stocks announced by the DOE-API are causing prices to retreat. The increase in oil demand with the opening of China supports the upward movement of prices. Therefore, the prices are balanced. This week, International Energy week kicks off in London. Poland's largest oil company reported that it has stopped buying oil from the Russian pipeline. This week DOE-API weekly oil stocks, Fed officials' statements can be followed.
S&P500
After the US personal consumption expenditures data, which pointed to a higher-than-expected inflation outlook, sharp sales were experienced in the US stock markets on Friday. Technology, Consumer Services and Healthcare sectors were the prominent sectors in the declines. The Dow Jones index fell 1.02%, the S&P 500 index fell 1.05% and the NASDAQ index fell 1.69%. US futures point to an unsteady opening on the first trading day of the new week. In terms of data today, durable goods orders and pending home sales data that will be announced in the USA can be followed as primary data during the day.
