EURUSD
- EUR/USD retraces recent gains, slipping below the psychological barrier at the 1.0900 level during the Asian session on Friday.
- The Euro's upward movement finds support from stronger-than-expected Eurozone Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, contributing to the currency's resilience.
- The minutes from the latest European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting reveal no surprises. Members expressed increased uncertainty about the economic outlook since September, noting that most indicators of underlying inflation appeared to have passed their peak.
- Scheduled speeches from ECB President Lagarde and other Governing Council members on Friday are not expected to provide clear insights into monetary policy, but their comments may impact market sentiment.
- Traders will closely monitor the release of German GDP for Q3, the IFO Survey, and US S&P Global PMI data for potential market-moving information.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement:EUR/USD experiences a retracement amid stronger Eurozone PMI data, while attention remains on ECB remarks and key economic indicators, including German GDP and the IFO Survey. The currency pair's trajectory will likely be influenced by the tone set by central bank officials and the incoming economic data.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD consolidates around 1.2530 during the Asian session on Friday, retracing from a two-month high of 1.2569 reached on Thursday.
- The S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI in the UK improves to 50.1 in November's flash estimate, up from 48.7 in October, providing support for the Pound Sterling.
- The UK's autumn statement fails to trigger a significant market reaction, as investors were already acquainted with the budget proposal details.
- The US Dollar gains strength mid-week as US Treasury bond yields rebound, following the weekly data indicating a decline in first-time applications for unemployment benefits to the lowest level since early October (209,000).
- Investors will look to the release of the S&P Global preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMIs for the US on Friday for potential market-moving insights into the economic activity.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: GBP/USD consolidates around 1.2530, influenced by improved UK PMI data. While the UK autumn statement had limited impact, attention turns to the upcoming US S&P Global PMI data for potential cues on the US economic outlook and its impact on the currency pair.
GOLD
- Gold price records modest gains on Thursday, supported by a weaker USD, yet remains below the psychological mark of $2,000 through the Asian session on Friday.
- With US markets closed on Thursday, it was a quiet session, and thin trading conditions are expected to persist, favoring consolidation in gold prices.
- The improvement in Eurozone PMIs supports risk appetite and weighs on the US Dollar, although the impact is limited due to low liquidity in the market.
- The US S&P Global PMIs are scheduled, but their impact could be restrained. Positive news for the US economy may pose a challenge for gold prices.
- Gold saw significant gains earlier in November as markets bet on the Fed refraining from further interest rate hikes. The overall bias remains bullish for XAU/USD.
Closing statement: Gold experiences modest gains below $2,000, influenced by a weaker USD and supported by the overall bullish bias. The quiet session with thin trading conditions is expected to continue, and the impact of upcoming US S&P Global PMIs on Gold prices may be limited.
CRUDE OIL
- WTI crude oil posts modest gains as OPEC+ confirms the next meeting on November 30, raising expectations for potential production cuts.
- Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, plans to extend oil production cuts by 1 million barrels a day through next year. This, combined with OPEC+ considerations for further supply cuts, supports oil prices.
- The hope for a fresh Chinese stimulus plan provides additional support and might cap the downside of WTI prices, reflecting expectations for increased oil demand.
- US crude oil inventories increased by 8.70 million barrels for the week ending November 17, exceeding the previous reading of a 4.60 million barrels gain, as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday.
- Oil traders turn their attention to the US S&P Global PMI data on Friday. The Manufacturing PMI is anticipated to drop from 50.0 to 49.8, while the Services PMI is estimated to ease from 50.6 to 50.4.
| SMA (20) | Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising |
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Closing statement: WTI crude oil sees modest gains amid expectations of OPEC+ production cuts. Saudi Arabia's commitment to extending production cuts, hopes for a Chinese stimulus, and the impact of US S&P Global PMI data contribute to the overall sentiment in the oil market.
DAX
- Preliminary private sector PMIs for Germany and the Eurozone on Thursday provided relief for investors. Better-than-expected PMI numbers raised hope for an improving macroeconomic environment, though the private sector continued contracting, signaling an economic recession.
- In the later European session, the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes supported buyer appetite for DAX-listed stocks. A more cautious ECB stance eased fears of a higher-for-longer rate path, contributing to positive sentiment.
- There were no US economic indicators to consider on Thursday as the US markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.
- On Friday, the German economy takes the spotlight with finalized Q3 GDP and business sentiment figures. Upward revisions to preliminary GDP figures could provide early support to the DAX.
- ECB commentary requires monitoring, with ECB President Christine Lagarde scheduled to speak. Investors will focus on forward guidance regarding inflation, the economy, and interest rates.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: The DAX Index experienced relief from better-than-expected PMI numbers and a more cautious ECB stance. With a focus on the German economy's finalized Q3 GDP and ECB President Christine Lagarde's guidance, the DAX remains influenced by both domestic and global economic factors.