EURUSD
- EUR/USD Recovery: EUR/USD recovered toward 1.0800 during the European session. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, corrected slightly to near 104.20 after hitting a 12-week high around 104.50 on Wednesday.
- ECB Rate Cut Speculations: On Wednesday, Mario Centeno, Governor of the Bank of Portugal and ECB policymaker, suggested that a 50-bps rate cut in December is a possibility, which helped support the Euro.
- PMI Data: The PMI data from Germany and the Eurozone revealed that economic activity contracted at a slower pace in early October, which lent some resilience to the Euro against its rivals.
- ECB Challenges: Analysts noted that the latest PMI figures present an "unwelcome surprise" for the European Central Bank (ECB), hinting at ongoing challenges in the Eurozone economy.
- US Economic Data: Later in the day, investors will shift their attention to the US economic calendar, which includes the release of weekly Initial Jobless Claims and S&P Global PMI data.
| SMA (20) | Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling |
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Closing statement: EUR/USD shows signs of recovery as ECB rate cut speculations and resilient PMI data offer support, while upcoming US data releases will drive short-term direction.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD is holding modest daily gains around 1.2960 during the European session.
- UK PMI Data: The UK Preliminary October Composite PMI dropped to 51.7, down from 52.6 in September. The decline made it challenging for the Pound Sterling to extend its recovery, signalling softer economic activity.
- BoE Inflation Outlook: Despite the weaker PMI data, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey expressed confidence that inflation will decelerate faster than expected, adding some stability to the outlook for the Pound Sterling.
- BoE Remarks: Later in the session, Catherine Mann, a member of the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and known for her hawkish stance, is set to deliver remarks, which may influence market sentiment.
- US Data: In the US, traders are watching for the release of weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the October S&P Global PMI data, which could affect the GBP/USD pair by impacting the US Dollar.
GOLD
- Gold Price: XAU/USD continues its intraday climb, reaching around $2,736 during the European session on Thursday.
- Technical Outlook: Despite the current uptrend, the recent break below a short-term ascending trend-channel support may signal a bearish outlook for some traders, hinting at potential downside risks.
- Safe-Haven Demand: Concerns over the Middle East conflict and political uncertainty ahead of the November 5 US Presidential election are supporting safe-haven demand, contributing to Gold's strength.
- Fed Rate Outlook: Expectations of smaller Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and concerns about US deficit spending post-election could cap significant declines in US bond yields, providing underlying support for Gold.
- US Economic Data: Traders are focusing on the release of US PMIs and Unemployment Claims to gauge the health of the economy and identify short-term trading opportunities.
Closing statement: XAU/USD climbs amid safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical tensions and US political uncertainty, while upcoming US economic data could guide short-term market direction.
CRUDE OIL
- Oil Price Recovery: WTI Crude Oil rebounds from the previous session's losses, trading around $72.30 per barrel during Thursday’s European session.
- Middle East Tensions: Ongoing concerns over the Middle East conflict continue to drive fears of potential supply disruptions, which is providing support to oil prices.
- US Stockpile Build: Oil prices faced pressure due to a larger-than-expected build in US crude stockpiles, with increased imports and a surprising rise in gasoline inventories contributing to the downward push.
- Fed Rate Outlook: Signs of economic resilience and inflation concerns have reduced the likelihood of a significant Federal Reserve rate cut in November, which is keeping a lid on oil price gains.
- US Election Impact: The upcoming Nov. 5 US presidential election could shift Middle East and oil policies. With Trump currently leading in betting markets, his proposals to make the US a major oil supplier could influence future market dynamics.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling |
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Closing statement: WTI Oil remains supported by Middle East conflict fears, though US stockpile increases and uncertainty around Fed policy temper upside potential. The upcoming US election adds another layer of uncertainty to oil market sentiment.
DAX
- DAX Declines: The DAX dropped by 0.23% on Wednesday, marking its third consecutive losing session, following a 0.20% decline from the previous day.
- Market Movers: Deutsche Bank slid by 0.86% after increasing its bad loan projections, raising concerns about its funding costs and potential pressure on net interest margins. Retail stocks like Zalando SE and Adidas also fell by 2.64% and 1.86%, respectively, with L’Oreal citing weaker demand from China for missing its Q3 sales projections.
- Consumer Confidence and Economic Indicators: The Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index showed a slight improvement from -12.9 in September to -12.5 in October.
- PMI Data: However, investors remained cautious as economic data continues to signal weak demand in the region. The Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) Composite PMI data also confirmed ongoing contraction in economic activity in October.
- US Data Focus: In Thursday’s US session, traders will closely watch Initial Jobless Claims and Services PMI data, which could affect demand for riskier assets like DAX- listed stocks.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: The DAX remains under pressure due to weaker economic indicators and concerns about bad loans in the banking sector. Investors are looking toward US economic data for fresh direction amid ongoing global demand worries.