EURUSD
While the consumer price index decreased by 0.2% on a monthly basis in January in the Euro Area, it rose to 8.6% on an annual basis. Core inflation was revised to 5.3% in January, reaching a record level, while it decreased by 0.2% on a monthly basis, in line with expectations. The US economy grew by 2.7% in the fourth quarter of 2022, below expectations. Revision of personal consumption expenditures from 2.1% to 1.4% was effective in the decrease. Contrary to expectations, applications for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level in four weeks, indicating that the labor market remained strong. While volatility continues on the dollar index and bond front, a weak course is recorded in the parity.
Technical Analysis
| Support & Resistance | Level |
|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 1.0673 |
| Resistance 2 | 1.0650 |
| Resistance 1 | 1.0622 |
| Support 1 | 1.0572 |
| Support 2 | 1.0549 |
| Support 3 | 1.0521 |
Daily Pivot Levels
GBPUSD
The consumer confidence index in the UK, prepared by market research firm GfK, rose to -38 in February from -49 in September due to the signs of improvement in the economy. The confidence index, which was -45 in January, was expected to recover to -43 in February. In his assessment, GfK manager Joe Staton emphasized that although high inflation continues to hit their incomes, consumers are suddenly becoming more optimistic about their own financial situation and the general economic situation, especially for the coming year.
Technical Analysis
| Support & Resistance | Level |
|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 1.2144 |
| Resistance 2 | 1.2109 |
| Resistance 1 | 1.2062 |
| Support 1 | 1.1979 |
| Support 2 | 1.1944 |
| Support 3 | 1.1896 |
Daily Pivot Levels
XAUUSD
In global markets, the sales in the US stock markets yesterday were compensated, albeit to a limited extent, at the end of the day. This morning, US futures are followed by slightly selling movements. We cannot talk about a new movement as the ounce gold remains cautious and weak. Due to the expectations about the Fed, the pressure on gold continues. This morning, the dollar index is trading sideways in the range of 104.42 - 104.63. There are data to be released in the USA today. Data-based action can be expected. During the day, statements are also coming from Fed members. Members' rhetoric can also affect expectations about the Fed. We can observe the reflections of this on ounce gold prices.
Technical Analysis
| Support & Resistance | Level |
|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 1847 |
| Resistance 2 | 1840 |
| Resistance 1 | 1831 |
| Support 1 | 1815 |
| Support 2 | 1808 |
| Support 3 | 1798 |
Daily Pivot Levels
BRENT OIL
Although Brent oil has declined towards the $80.00 region this week, it has started to recover again with the reactions from there. The expectations about the Fed, the limited rise of the dollar, the deterioration in the risk appetite caused the oil prices to retreat. Oil inventories announced by the API and DOE this week also continued to increase. An increase in stocks is interpreted negatively for oil. However, the impact of the data on prices was limited. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said the EU's cap on Russian oil helped Moscow cut oil revenues by 60 percent. Data will be released in the USA today. Oil prices this morning are mild.
S&P500
U.S. stock markets rose yesterday, led by the energy, technology and industrial sectors. The Dow Jones index rose 0.33%, the S&P 500 index rose 0.53% and the NASDAQ index rose 0.72% to close the day. US futures point to a sideways-negative opening today. On the other hand, US economic growth came in below expectations in the fourth quarter in line with the downward revision in consumer spending. Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product rose 2.7 percent annually over the period. Personal consumption expenditures and new home sales data, which will be announced in the USA today, can be followed as primary data.
