EURUSD
- EUR/USD is making efforts to recover from the losses incurred in the previous session, trading slightly higher around 1.0910 during the Asian session on Wednesday. This suggests a potential stabilization or bounce back.
- ECB President Christine Lagarde's hawkish statements overnight have provided support for the EUR/USD pair. Lagarde emphasized that it is too early to declare victory over inflation and cautioned against premature bets based on short-term data flow.
- US data released on Tuesday revealed a larger-than-expected decline in Existing Home Sales in October, dropping to an annual rate of 3.7 million against expectations of 3.9 million. This data might contribute to the dynamics of EUR/USD.
- On Wednesday, the focus will be on the release of the weekly Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, and the final reading of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. These data points could influence trading patterns for EUR/USD.
- The overall market sentiment, shaped by economic indicators and central bank statements, will continue to play a role in EUR/USD movements. Traders will closely monitor developments in global economic conditions.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement:EUR/USD is in a phase of recovery, backed by President Lagarde's hawkish remarks. The impact of US economic data, particularly Existing Home Sales, and the upcoming releases will be critical in determining the direction of the pair. Ongoing market dynamics and central bank communications will contribute to the broader sentiment.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD demonstrated strength by climbing above 1.2500 and reaching its highest level since early September, nearing 1.2550 on Tuesday. This indicates a bullish momentum in the pair.
- BoE Governor Bailey, speaking at a Treasury Select Committee hearing, provided insights into inflation. He mentioned that inflation is expected to end the year slightly lower than anticipated, but risks remain on the upside. Bailey also didn't rule out the possibility of further interest rate hikes.
- The FOMC minutes, which expressed concerns about inflation and hinted at the possibility of more tightening if needed, had limited impact on the market. GBP/USD traders seemed to largely ignore the content of the minutes.
- UK Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt is scheduled to deliver an autumn statement to the House of Commons, presenting the latest independent forecasts by the OBR. This event could influence GBP/USD movements.
- The ongoing dynamics of the forex market, including broader economic conditions, central bank communications, and global geopolitical factors, will continue to shape the trajectory of GBP/USD.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: GBP/USD exhibits a bullish trend, reaching its highest level in months. BoE Governor Bailey's comments on inflation and the upcoming statement by the UK Finance Minister will be pivotal in guiding the pair's direction. Market dynamics, including responses to central bank communications, will contribute to the overall sentiment.
GOLD
- Gold prices experience a modest pullback from the multi-month peak around the $2,007 region, settling near the psychological mark of $2,000 during the Asian session on Wednesday. This suggests a momentary retracement in the precious metal's value.
- FOMC members express consensus in proceeding carefully with policy decisions based on incoming information and economic outlook. This reaffirms the market expectation that the Fed has concluded its interest rate-hiking cycle.
- Despite FOMC's cautious stance, market participants appear convinced that the US central bank will maintain steady rates, with some pricing in the possibility of rate cuts by spring 2024.
- Despite FOMC's cautious stance, market participants appear convinced that the US central bank will maintain steady rates, with some pricing in the possibility of rate cuts by spring 2024.
- Wednesday brings crucial economic data from the US, including Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Orders. A negative reading in these numbers could serve as a catalyst for pushing XAU/USD above the $2,000 mark.
Closing statement: Gold prices witness a minor pullback from recent highs as FOMC members agree on a cautious approach. Market expectations lean toward steady rates, and geopolitical tensions have limited impact. The direction of XAU/USD will likely be influenced by upcoming US economic data.
CRUDE OIL
- WTI prices experience a correction, ending a three-day winning streak and trading lower near $77.60 per barrel during the Asian session on Wednesday. This suggests a short-term reversal in the recent upward trend.
- The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock data reveals a significant rise of 9.047 million barrels in the week ended November 17, surpassing the previous figure of 1.335 million barrels. This unexpected surge in inventories contributes to the decline in oil prices.
- The higher-than-expected increase in US crude oil stocks counteracts the positive impact of OPEC and allied producers' anticipated supply restrictions, influencing a downturn in oil prices.
- Investors exercise caution ahead of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Sunday. There's speculation that the producer group might propose additional supply restrictions in response to concerns about global economic growth.
- The head of the International Energy Agency's (IEA) oil markets and industry section, Toril Bosoni, warns that the global oil market could witness a minor supply surplus in 2024. This insight contributes to the overall sentiment surrounding crude oil.
| SMA (20) | Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising |
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Closing statement: WTI crude oil experiences a correction amid higher-than-expected US crude oil stocks, dampening the positive influence of anticipated OPEC+ supply restrictions. Investor caution prevails ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, and the IEA's warning of a potential supply surplus in 2024 adds to market considerations.
DAX
- ECB President Lagarde's statements on Tuesday disappointed investors who were anticipating ECB rate cuts. Lagarde's comments suggested a cautious stance, dispelling expectations of a rate cut in April-May and influencing market sentiment.
- The FOMC Meeting Minutes, released overnight, didn't bring significant surprises. However, the acknowledgment of a willingness to lift rates higher reminded investors of the persistent efforts to control inflation, impacting market perceptions.
- The upcoming ECB Financial Stability Review, a twice-annual report, is expected to attract investor interest. It could shed light on the consequences of aggressive monetary policy measures on credit conditions, influencing market sentiments.
- In conjunction with the Financial Stability Review, investors will monitor additional commentary from ECB Executive Board member Frank Elderson on Wednesday. Any hints regarding future monetary policy decisions could impact on the DAX Index.
- Later in the Wednesday session, attention will shift to US jobless claims and consumer sentiment numbers. These economic indicators will be closely watched for insights into the health of the US economy, influencing global market sentiments.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: The DAX Index responds to ECB President Lagarde's cautious stance, with the disappointment over deferred rate cuts. The upcoming ECB Financial Stability Review and related commentary, along with key US economic data, will likely drive market dynamics as investors seek insights into monetary policy and economic health.