EURUSD
- The EUR/USD pair has maintained a positive trend, marking its fourth consecutive day of gains during the early European session on Tuesday.
- The pair is benefitting from a weaker US dollar, which, in turn, is being attributed to lower US Treasury bond yields. This dynamic is contributing to the overall strength of the Euro against the US Dollar.
- Investors are closely monitoring the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes scheduled for Tuesday. The minutes are anticipated to offer insights into the future trajectory of policy rates, influencing the currency pair's direction.
- The prevailing market sentiment suggests a belief that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has concluded its interest rate hikes. This perception is contributing to the downward pressure on the US Dollar, while concurrently supporting EUR/USD.
- Eyes are on key economic indicators, including the Chicago Fed National Index and Existing Home Sales in the US. Additionally, the preliminary November PMIs in Europe, set for Thursday, will likely play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement:The EUR/USD pair is riding a positive streak, fueled by a weaker US dollar and market expectations of a stable interest rate environment. Investors are keenly awaiting insights from the FOMC Meeting Minutes for potential shifts in the currency pair's trajectory. Key economic data from both the US and Europe will continue to steer market sentiment in the coming sessions.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD has exhibited a bullish trend, opening the week with an upward trajectory, reaching 1.2500 after experiencing a downward correction in the previous week.
- The currency pair sustained its upward movement, marking the third consecutive session of gains. This positive momentum is supported by factors contributing to the strength of the British Pound against the US Dollar.
- BoE Governor Bailey's speech at the Henry Plumb Memorial Lecture has reinforced the positive sentiment. Bailey commented on inflation, stating that while it has exceeded targets, signs of stabilization, particularly in the food sector, are emerging.
- British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's remarks indicate a shift in fiscal policy. Sunak mentioned the possibility of cutting taxes as inflation shows signs of slowing. This change in policy direction is contributing to the positive outlook for GBP/USD.
- Sunak also emphasized the government's intention to support businesses through lower taxes once inflation and debt are under control. This commitment is likely influencing positive sentiment toward the British Pound.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: GBP/USD is on a bullish trajectory, finding support in Governor Bailey's comments on stabilizing inflation and Prime Minister Sunak's indication of a potential shift in fiscal policy, including tax cuts. The sustained positive momentum suggests a favourable environment for the British Pound against the US Dollar. Investors will continue to monitor economic developments and policy shifts for further insights.
GOLD
- Gold prices are experiencing robust positive momentum, reaching a level exceeding a two-week high, with the price nearing $2,000. This surge is indicative of increased demand for the precious metal.
- Expectations of a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve are impacting the USD negatively, contributing to the upward movement in gold prices. Investors are closely watching for cues in the upcoming FOMC minutes regarding future policy actions.
- The Federal Reserve's release of its meeting minutes is anticipated to influence both the bond market and gold prices. The prevailing market sentiment, suggesting that the Fed has concluded its rate-raising cycle, is supporting gold's upside potential.
- The promise of additional stimulus measures by China's government is fostering a positive atmosphere in equity markets. This upbeat mood could be indirectly supporting gold as investors seek safe-haven assets.
- The CME’s Fedwatch tool indicates a roughly 30% probability of the Fed initiating rate cuts as early as March 2024, with expectations of nearly 100 basis points of cumulative easing by the year-end. These expectations are contributing to the favorable conditions for gold.
Closing statement: Gold prices are on an upward trajectory, supported by dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve, anticipation of a more accommodative stance, and positive market sentiment. The release of the FOMC minutes and ongoing global economic dynamics will likely play crucial roles in shaping the future movement of gold prices. Investors are advised to stay vigilant for further developments.
CRUDE OIL
- West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices are on the rise, extending their upward movement. This is attributed to the widespread expectation that OPEC+ will announce additional supply cuts following an upcoming meeting.
- Saudi Arabia, a major player in the oil market, is planning to extend oil production cuts by 1 million barrels per day throughout the next year. This commitment, along with considerations by OPEC+ for further cuts, is influencing the positive sentiment in the oil market.
- Oil traders are closely watching the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes, scheduled for release on Tuesday. Any hints about the future direction of policy rates could impact oil prices.
- Despite the prospects of deeper supply cuts, concerns about a slowing global economy are tempering the positive impact on oil prices. The delicate balance between supply dynamics and global economic health is a key factor in oil market movements.
- The upcoming release of US crude oil inventory data, including API Weekly Crude Oil Stock and EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change for the week ending November 17, will provide crucial insights into the supply-demand balance and may influence short-term oil price movements.
| SMA (20) | Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling |
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Closing statement: WTI oil prices are experiencing an upward trend amid expectations of OPEC+ supply cuts and Saudi Arabia's commitment to production reductions. However, the delicate equilibrium between global economic concerns and supply dynamics underscores the complexity of the oil market. Traders should remain vigilant, especially considering the upcoming inventory data and potential insights from the FOMC Meeting Minutes.
DAX
- The DAX Index is currently trading above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating an overall bullish trend in the market. This positioning suggests positive sentiment among investors.
- European Central Bank (ECB) officials have maintained a cautious stance, acknowledging high inflation and a resilient economy. This stands in contrast to market expectations of imminent rate cuts, influencing the dynamics of the DAX.
- ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak on Tuesday. Her comments on the economic outlook, inflation, and interest rates will be closely watched, as they have the potential to impact on the DAX market.
- ECB Executive Board member Elizabeth McCaul will also speak on Tuesday. Her insights, particularly in the context of softer Eurozone inflation numbers for October and the weak macroeconomic environment, could shape expectations for a less hawkish ECB rate path.
- Investors will closely monitor the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes on Tuesday. Recent US inflation and retail sales figures have influenced expectations, and any hints about a potential May Fed rate cut could impact the DAX.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: The DAX Index is riding a bullish trend, trading above key moving averages. The cautious stance of ECB officials and upcoming speeches, particularly from President Lagarde and Executive Board member McCaul, will guide market sentiment. Additionally, insights from the FOMC Meeting Minutes will be critical in navigating the DAX landscape amid global economic uncertainties.