EURUSD
- EUR/USD traded flat around 1.0963, ahead of the release of manufacturing and services PMI data in a number of eurozone countries.
- ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the European Central Bank's monetary policy still has a way to go to bring back inflation towards its 2% goal, implying more rate hikes ahead.
- The U.S. dollar edged higher in the early European session Friday, and looks set to post its first weekly gain in more than a month on growing expectations of further monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve next month.
- Flash U.S. PMI figures for April are due later today, which will provide further clarity on the overall economic health of the largest economy in the world.
| SMA (1D) | Rising |
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| RSI (1D) | Neutral | ||
| MACD (1D) | Neutral |
Closing statement: The EUR/USD remained largely flat ahead of the release of eurozone PMI data, while the U.S. dollar strengthened as investors anticipate a potential rate hike by the Federal Reserve next month.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD fell 0.26% to 1.2410, following a greater-than-expected 0.9% drop in UK retail sales in March due to elevated inflation.
- The DXY, which tracks the dollar against six other currencies, traded 0.13% higher to 101.925, and is on course for a weekly gain of around 0.3%, after five straight weeks of losses.
- Commentary from a number of Fed policymakers has pointed to the US central bank raising interest rates by 25 basis points in early May, due to problematic levels of inflation.
- GBP/USD is currently in a range and a possible triangle formation. If this support can be broken, a continuation to the ATR target at around 1.2350 with a further target of the 50% Fibonacci at around 1.2305 area is expected.
| SMA (1D) | Rising |
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| RSI (1D) | Slightly Falling |
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| MACD (1D) | Slightly Falling |
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Closing statement: In summary, GBP/USD remained under pressure due to a fall in UK retail sales and the possibility of the US Fed raising interest rates in May. The DXY traded higher and is on course for a weekly gain after five weeks of losses. GBP/USD is currently in a range and could see a continuation to the downside if the support level is broken.
GOLD
- Gold prices were trading around $1987 on Friday, with concerns over slowing economic growth and safe haven demand providing support.
- The recent strength of the dollar put some pressure on gold prices, but weaker-than-expected manufacturing and employment data helped gold trade above $2000 before retracing below again.
- Recent economic data, including the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, weekly jobless claims, and US home sales, has fueled concerns of a potential recession this year, further supporting demand for safe haven assets like gold.
- Gold had a strong performance in March, driven by heightened safe haven demand amid the collapse of several US banks.
Closing statement:Gold prices are likely to continue to be influenced by economic data and global uncertainty, as well as factors such as inflation and interest rates. While the recent retracement from above $2000 may indicate some short-term weakness, ongoing demand for safe haven assets could continue to provide support for gold prices in the longer term.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude oil prices traded in a narrow range on Friday, following a sharp decline this week, as soft economic data and concerns over rising interest rates created uncertainty over a recovery in demand this year.
- Prices were set to close the week down over 6%, after four consecutive weeks of gains. As of today, prices bounced off the 100-day moving average and are around $77.4 per barrel.
- Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said on Thursday that U.S. interest rates will likely rise further and remain high to tackle inflation, while the dollar recovered from 15-month lows this week, adding pressure to oil markets.
- Despite positive signs from China, where first-quarter GDP grew more than expected after the country relaxed most anti-COVID measures earlier in the year, signs of economic weakness prevailed."
| SMA (1D) | Slightly Rising |
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| RSI (1D) | Neutral | ||
| MACD (1D) | Neutral |
Closing statement: Crude oil prices struggled this week due to concerns over slowing economic growth and fears of rising interest rates. While there were some positive signals from China's economy, soft economic data in the US and remarks from the Philadelphia Fed President pushed prices down, with a weekly loss of over 6% and trading currently around $77.4 per barrel.”
DAX
- The DAX index in Germany traded 0.17% lower, the CAC 40 in France dropped 0.14%, and the FTSE 100 in the U.K. traded mostly flat, with economic data pointing to a regional economic slowdown.
- Purchasing manager's index data (PMI) from both France and Germany confirmed the divergence between the two main sectors of the economy, manufacturing and services, with manufacturing surveys remaining in contraction territory in both countries while services were robust.
- This is likely to result in the European Central Bank raising interest rates once more next month, with inflationary pressures.
- The month-long risky-asset rally in the wake of the stabilization of the banking system seems to be running out of steam as economic numbers point to an economic falloff.
- In the U.S., continuing unemployment benefit claims jumped to the highest level since November 2021, pointing to a softening labor market.
| SMA (1D) | Rising |
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| RSI (1D) | Falling |
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| MACD (1D) | Slightly Rising |
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Closing statement:The European stock markets are showing signs of slowing down as economic data points to an economic falloff, with the manufacturing sector remaining in contraction territory in both France and Germany. The situation is likely to result in the European Central Bank raising interest rates again next month, and the U.S. continuing unemployment benefit claims are also pointing to a softening labor market.