EURUSD
- EUR/USD is maintaining its winning streak, currently trading around a three-month high at 1.0920 during the Asian session on Monday.
- The pair is approaching immediate resistance around the major level at 1.0943. The US Dollar (USD) is under pressure, and this is attributed to the likelihood of the Federal Reserve (Fed) concluding its interest rate-hike cycle.
- The shared currency (EUR) is gaining support from hawkish remarks by European Central Bank (ECB) officials on Friday. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel cautioned against starting to cut interest rates too soon. This suggests a more cautious approach to monetary policy.
- ECB policymaker Robert Holzmann argued that the second quarter would be too soon for a rate cut. This aligns with the notion that the ECB is not considering an early rate cut, providing support to the Euro.
- The sentiment in the pair is influenced by central bank guidance, with the Fed's likelihood of concluding its interest rate-hike cycle and the ECB's more cautious stance providing a supportive backdrop for the Euro.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement:In summary, the EUR/USD is maintaining a positive trend, with ongoing attention to central bank communications and key resistance levels. The supportive remarks from ECB officials are contributing to the Euro's strength against the US Dollar. Monitoring upcoming events and central bank statements will be essential for gauging potential further movements in the pair.
GBPUSD
- The GBP/USD pair is attracting dip-buying during the Asian session on Monday, touching the 100-day Moving Average around the 1.2500 region.
- The US Dollar (USD) is struggling to register a meaningful recovery and is near its lowest level since September 1. This weakness in the USD is acting as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair.
- The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) reports released last week indicated that concerns about high prices have eased. This development is expected to allow the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain the status quo at its December meeting and is weighing on the USD.
- Markets are pricing in the possibility that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in early 2024 to engineer an economic soft landing. On the other hand, there are expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) might begin cutting interest rates from their 15-year peak in response to looming recession risks.
- The expectation that the Fed will maintain the status quo at its December meeting is a significant factor. Any hints or guidance from the Fed regarding its future policy stance will be closely watched.
- The market's anticipation of the Bank of England's response to recession risks is another crucial factor. Any signals from the BoE regarding potential changes in interest rates will impact on the pair.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: GBP/USD is experiencing dip-buying in the Asian session, with the ongoing weakness in the US Dollar being a key driver. The resolution of high-price concerns and market expectations regarding central bank policies are shaping the current dynamics of the pair. Monitoring central bank communications, especially from the Fed's December meeting, will be crucial for understanding potential future movements in GBP/USD.
GOLD
- Gold price is consolidating the weekly gains above $1,980 early Friday, signaling a potential end to a two-week losing streak.
- Resurfacing concerns about the US-China trade relationship are contributing to uncertainty in the market. China's Commerce Minister expressed concerns over US curbs on semiconductor exports to China, sanctions on Chinese firms, and tariffs on Chinese imports during a meeting with the US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo on Thursday.
- Uncertainty around the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate outlook is keeping investors on edge. The market is currently pricing in the possibility that the Fed is done with its hiking cycle, and there are expectations of interest rate cuts by May next year.
- Amidst jittery markets, the safe-haven US Dollar is finding support, which is limiting the upside attempts in gold price. Gold often serves as a safe-haven asset in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
- The demand for US government bonds has increased, reflecting market expectations that the Fed might be done with its hiking cycle. The anticipation of potential interest rate cuts is contributing to the demand for safer assets like government bonds.
- Any further developments in the US-China trade relationship could impact the sentiment in the gold market. Escalation or de-escalation of trade tensions may influence risk sentiment and, consequently, the demand for safe-haven assets like Gold.
Closing statement: Gold is currently navigating uncertainties related to US-China trade tensions and the Fed's interest rate outlook. The safe-haven appeal of Gold is being tested amid ongoing market developments, and any further indications from the Fed and trade-related news could significantly influence gold prices.
CRUDE OIL
- WTI Crude Oil prices are building on last week's rebound from the $72.40-$72.35 area, indicating follow-through positive traction for the second successive day.
- Media reports suggest that OPEC+ could discuss deeper supply cuts at its upcoming meeting on November 26. This news is seen as a key factor lending support to oil prices.
- Saudi Arabia and Russia, two major oil producers, are expected to extend oil production cuts through next year. This move follows OPEC's relatively high 2024 oil demand growth forecast.
- The International Energy Agency (IEA) has a lower 2024 demand growth forecast and mentioned the possibility of the market shifting to a surplus in the first quarter. This forecast might be contributing to concerns in the market.
- Concerns about a deeper global economic downturn impacting fuel demand are mentioned as factors that might continue to undermine Crude Oil prices.
- The upcoming OPEC+ meeting on November 26 will be closely watched for any decisions regarding supply cuts. The outcome of the meeting could have a significant impact on oil prices.
| SMA (20) | Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling |
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Closing statement:In summary, the recent positive momentum in WTI Crude Oil prices is driven by expectations of deeper supply cuts and continued production cuts by major producers. However, concerns about a surplus and global economic downturn are factors that could cap further gains. The outcome of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting will likely be a significant catalyst for oil prices.
DAX
- The Eurozone annual inflation rate softened from 4.3% to 2.9% in October 2023. The softer numbers supported market expectations of the European Central Bank (ECB) cutting interest rates next year.
- Better-than-expected US housing data on Friday drove buyer demand for riskier assets. The positive performance of the US housing sector eased investor fears of a hard landing for the US economy.
- Fed speakers contributed to rising bets on a Fed rate cut in March or May. FOMC voting member Austan Goolsbee expects a sharp fall in inflation, and Michael Barr sees interest rates near the peak.
- Siemens Energy AG rallied 7.55%, supported by a government deal where they received $8 billion in guarantees.
- German producer prices fell in line with expectations in October, continuing a downward trend after a record fall in September. Compared with October 2022, prices were down 11.0%, meeting analyst expectations.
- ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane is on the calendar to speak. Any indications or support for beginning rate cut discussions could influence investor sentiment, particularly regarding DAX-listed stocks.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: In summary, the DAX is navigating a landscape influenced by softer Eurozone inflation, potential ECB rate cuts, positive US housing data, and Fed rate cut expectations. Corporate news and upcoming speeches by central bank officials will likely play a role in shaping market sentiment in the near term.