EURUSD
- EUR/USD rose to 1.0968 on Thursday despite German producer prices falling 2.6% in March, as the annual basis showed an increase of 7.5%.
- Investors are looking for clues on the extent of future hikes from the European Central Bank's last meeting minutes, set to release later in the session.
- Markets have already solidified their view on 25bp increases by the ECB in May.
- The U.S. dollar traded in a subdued manner in early European trade, with expectations growing that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy further next month.
| SMA (1D) | Rising |
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| RSI (1D) | Slightly Falling |
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| MACD (1D) | Neutral |
Closing statement: In summary, the EUR/USD remained resilient despite the weak German producer prices data, while investors awaited the release of the ECB's meeting minutes for clues on future hikes. The subdued trading of the U.S. dollar was also observed as market expectations of further monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve grew.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD slipped 0.1% to 1.2430 on Thursday, reversing some of the gains made on Wednesday after strong consumer price data revealed that the UK was the only country in western Europe with double-digit inflation in March.
- Inflation remains a key issue in Europe, with data released on Wednesday showing that further interest rate hikes may be necessary in the UK.
- The DXY, which measures the dollar against six other currencies, was largely unchanged at 101.906, having gained 0.3% in Wednesday's trading session.
- The Fed is widely expected to implement a final 25-basis-point rate increase in May, after which the discussion will turn to whether the central bank will keep rates steady for the rest of the year or start to reduce them towards the end of 2023, as the world's largest economy starts to contract.
| SMA (1D) | Rising |
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| RSI (1D) | Neutral | ||
| MACD (1D) | Neutral |
Closing statement: The steady rise of GBP/USD is being driven by strong inflation data and the Bank of England's efforts to contain it, while the dollar remains relatively stable against other currencies. The cautious approach of the Federal Reserve in terms of interest rate hikes is also providing some support for the pound.
GOLD
- Gold prices were under pressure on Thursday due to a stronger dollar and the likelihood of central banks raising interest rates in the near future.
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams stated on Wednesday that inflation levels remain problematic and that the central bank will act to lower it.
- The Fed's Beige Book report, released on Wednesday, indicated that although economic conditions had somewhat cooled recently, inflation continued to run relatively hot.
- The market is pricing in an 85% chance of a 25 basis points rate hike by the Fed in May, which is contributing to the downward pressure on gold prices.
- Despite the current weakness, gold is still seen as a potential hedge against inflation and market volatility, which may continue to support demand for the precious metal in the long term.
Closing statement:While gold prices face downward pressure due to the prospects of higher interest rates and a stronger dollar, the precious metal still holds its value as a potential hedge against inflation and market turbulence. Investors will be watching closely to see how these factors continue to impact the price of gold in the near term.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude oil prices fell in Asian trade on Thursday due to a strengthening U.S. dollar and underwhelming economic data from the U.S. and China.
- The U.S. dollar index has risen by 0.40% this week, making oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.
- According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. crude stockpiles fell by 4.6 million barrels last week due to rising refinery runs and exports. This decline was significantly steeper than analysts' estimates and the American Petroleum Institute's estimates earlier this week.
- Despite falling U.S. inventories, market participants are concerned about potential interest rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve that could slow growth and dampen oil consumption.
DAX
- The DAX40 closed at a new 52-week high on Wednesday, gaining 0.08%, while the MDAX index fell 0.29%, and the TecDAX index declined 0.82%.
- The Food & Beverages, Insurance and Utilities sectors led shares higher, while the Construction, Technology, and Software sectors led shares lower.
- Commerzbank AG was the best performer of the session on the DAX, rising 4.50% or 0.47 points to trade at 10.80 at the close.
- Infineon Technologies AG was the worst performer of the session, falling 2.55% or 0.94 points to trade at 35.77 at the close.
- EUR/USD is trading at 1.0970, while EUR/GBP rose 0.26% to 0.88.
| SMA (1D) | Rising |
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| RSI (1D) | Falling |
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| MACD (1D) | Neutral |
Closing statement:In summary, the DAX40 closed at a new 52-week high on Wednesday, but the broader market was mixed, with some sectors gaining and others falling. Commerzbank AG was the best performer of the session, while Infineon Technologies AG was the worst performer. The EUR/USD is trading at 1.0970, and EUR/GBP rose 0.26% to 0.88.