EURUSD
In Germany, Europe's largest economy, the producer price index decreased by 1.0% on a monthly basis in January, while it fell to 17.8% on an annual basis. According to the balance of payments statistics announced by the European Central Bank on the last trading day of the week, the current account surplus increased by 3 billion euros in the last month and reached 15.9 billion euros. While following the hawkish statements of the local Fed presidents on the US front, it is observed that 25 basis points of interest rate hikes are priced in the next 2 meetings of the Fed in the swap market.
Technical Analysis
| Support & Resistance | Level |
|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 1,0809 |
| Resistance 2 | 1,0753 |
| Resistance 1 | 1,0723 |
| Support 1 | 1,0638 |
| Support 2 | 1,0582 |
| Support 3 | 1,0552 |
Daily Pivot Levels
GBPUSD
Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist Huw Pill said there is a risk of "over tightening" if the pace of the last few months continues, signaling that policy makers are ready to reduce the pace of rate hikes. The official on the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee said the labor market is showing signs of easing, a sign that the upward pressure on inflation from wage increases may ease. "Continuing to increase interest rates at the pace and magnitude seen last year means that eventually monetary policy has been cumulatively tightened too much," Pill said.
Technical Analysis
| Support & Resistance | Level |
|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 1,2222 |
| Resistance 2 | 1,2135 |
| Resistance 1 | 1,2087 |
| Support 1 | 1,1953 |
| Support 2 | 1,1866 |
| Support 3 | 1,1819 |
Daily Pivot Levels
XAUUSD
Although gold retreated to the level of $ 1818 an ounce last week, it is seen that it has recovered with the reaction purchases from here. The dollar index is in the 103-104 region, which puts pressure on commodities. While a decrease was observed in the latest announced inflation in the USA, the fact that the PPI data exceeded the expectations made the markets nervous. In the speeches of Fed members, it is stated that interest rate hikes will continue, while 50 basis point probabilities are reflected in prices. Members' speeches can be watched this week, as their messages may influence expectations for the next Fed meeting. Since the markets are closed due to Presidents' Day in the USA today, there is no important data flow to be announced in the USA.
Technical Analysis
| Support & Resistance | Level |
|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 1875 |
| Resistance 2 | 1859 |
| Resistance 1 | 1850 |
| Support 1 | 1826 |
| Support 2 | 1810 |
| Support 3 | 1801 |
Daily Pivot Levels
BRENT OIL
Oil prices started the new week with light buyers. Last week, the tension between the USA and China, the hawkish statements of the Fed and the increase in weekly inventories announced by the DOE-API caused oil prices to depreciate by about 4 percent. However, it seems that the pullbacks are limited because the opening of China and its continuing to be reflected in the figures also support the upward movement of prices. This may take effect this week. It's important for Fed members to have conversations because the 50 basis point prospects pressure oil prices from time to time. The United States is said to be preparing new sanctions against Russia. At the same time, it is stated that there is work on export control.
S&P500
Although the fight against inflation continues to be the number one priority of central banks around the world, the data released since the beginning of February raises questions about the effectiveness of the fight in question. Bank of America strategists warned that the delayed recession in the USA could put pressure on stocks in the second half of the year. The S&P 500 closed the session down 0.28% at 4.079. As of this morning, the outlook for the S&P 500 futures contract is at 4,086.
