EURUSD
- EUR/USD rose 0.45% to 1.09729, below the one-year high of 1.1075 it touched last week despite expectations of the ECB continuing to hike interest rates this year due to inflation still being significantly higher than its target.
- ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the bank can discuss changing its 2% inflation goal only after it brings inflation down to that level.
- The U.S. dollar slipped lower in early European trade on Tuesday, following overnight gains as healthy Chinese growth data boosted risk sentiment.
- From a technical point of view, despite the recent correction from one-year highs, the currency pair maintains its bullish bias on the daily chart.
| SMA (1D) | Rising |
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| RSI (1D) | Slightly Rising |
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| MACD (1D) | Neutral |
Closing statement: The EUR/USD currency pair rose slightly on Monday but remains below its recent one-year high, with market focus on the ECB's plans for interest rates and the impact of economic data on risk sentiment.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD rose 0.47% to 1.2434 after the UK unemployment rate rose to 3.8% in February, weaker than expected, but the Bank of England is still expected to hike interest rates next month with inflation remaining high.
- The UK employment rate was estimated at 75.8% in December 2022 to February 2023, up 0.2 percentage points from September to November 2022.
- The DXY, which tracks the dollar against six other currencies, traded 0.35% lower at 101.729 after rising 0.5% overnight.
- The dollar had traded higher on Monday after data showed that manufacturing activity in New York state increased for the first time in five months, lifting expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates again at its next meeting in May.
- From a technical perspective, GBP/USD remains in a bearish trend on the daily chart, despite the recent gains.
| SMA (1D) | Rising |
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| RSI (1D) | Slightly Rising |
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| MACD (1D) | Slightly Falling |  |
Closing statement: Overall, the financial markets have been impacted by a variety of factors, including central bank policies, inflation concerns, economic data releases, and geopolitical events. Recent trends suggest that investors are keeping a close eye on interest rate decisions and inflation rates, as well as government policies regarding COVID-19 and trade.
GOLD
- In early Asian trade on Tuesday, gold prices moved below key levels, pressured by a firmer dollar and rising Treasury yields as markets reconsidered expectations for an imminent pause in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes.
- Recent hawkish comments from Fed officials increased the likelihood of a rate hike in May, creating uncertainty over whether the central bank will pause in June.
- According to Fed Fund futures prices, markets are positioning for an over 80% chance that the Fed will hike rates by 25 basis points in May.
- Gold prices have fallen sharply for the past two sessions, retreating from a 13-month high reached last week as investors are increasingly turning to riskier assets amid expectations of higher rates.
Closing statement: Gold is facing headwinds as the prospect of higher interest rates continues to weigh on the precious metal's appeal. Investors will be closely watching for any signals from the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meetings for clues on the future path of interest rates and its impact on gold prices.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude oil prices firmed slightly on Tuesday, following a 2% decline in the previous session.
- Stronger economic data from China, the world's largest crude importer, underpinned the demand outlook, as the country's economy grew at a faster-than-expected clip in the first quarter.
- The recovery of the Chinese economy supported the recent rebound in oil prices, and May is the seasonal peak travel period in China, with demand for fuel expected to post a significant year-on-year increase.
- However, crude oil prices remain under pressure due to a stronger dollar and a rise in treasury yields.
| SMA (1D) | Rising |
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| RSI (1D) | Slightly Rising |
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| MACD (1D) | Rising |
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Closing statement: Despite the recent fluctuations, crude oil prices have largely been on an upward trend in the past year as global demand recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the market remains vulnerable to various factors such as geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, and shifts in global economic growth. Investors will be closely watching for any updates from major oil-producing countries and organizations, such as OPEC and Russia, on production levels and plans to address supply and demand imbalances in the market.
DAX
- European shares rose on Tuesday, with investors awaiting more U.S. bank earnings and boosted by China's stronger-than-expected economic recovery.
- Christine Lagarde warned of challenges posed to the ECB and its peers by changes in the world economy induced by geopolitics, in a speech on Monday.
- On Friday, ECB Executive Board Member Pierre Wunsch suggested a 25 or 50 basis point interest rate hike in May, depending on core inflation and the lending survey results.
- From a technical point of view, the DAX40 may test the second major resistance level at $15,885 and resistance at $15,900, with another major resistance level at $15,967.
| SMA (1D) | Rising |
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| RSI (1D) | Slightly Rising |
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| MACD (1D) | Slightly Rising |
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Closing statement: Overall, the DAX40 saw gains on Tuesday, boosted by positive sentiment following China's economic recovery and investors awaiting more U.S. bank earnings. However, concerns about geopolitical challenges and potential changes in the world economy continue to pose challenges for the European Central Bank and its peers, as highlighted by Christine Lagarde's recent warning. ECB Executive Board Member Pierre Wunsch's comments on potential interest rate hikes in May also add to the uncertainty. From a technical perspective, resistance levels remain in focus for traders, with the bulls expected to test the second major resistance level at $15,885 and resistance at $15,900, while another major resistance level sits at $15,967.