EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: The EUR/USD pair is experiencing selling pressure near 1.1350 during early Thursday trading. This reflects a cautious tone in the market, likely driven by upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.
- Eurozone Inflation: Final Eurostat data confirms that Eurozone inflation slowed to 2.2% in March from 2.6% in February. This reinforces a dovish outlook for the ECB and signals reduced urgency for tight monetary policy.
- ECB Rate Cut: Markets widely expect the ECB to cut rates by 25 basis points in its April meeting. This expectation is contributing to downward pressure on the euro, as lower rates typically diminish a currency's appeal to yield-seeking investors.
- Lagarde’s Guidance: Beyond the rate decision, attention is on Christine Lagarde’s comments, which could clarify the future trajectory of ECB policy. Any hints of continued easing or a cautious outlook would likely add to euro weakness.
- US-Itally Meeting: The focus will remain on the meeting between Trump and Italy's PM Giorgia Meloni, due later today. Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday that the European Union expects most of the US import tariffs to remain in place after little progress was made in the latest talks.
| SMA (20) | Rising |  | |
| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: EUR/USD is under modest bearish pressure due to easing inflation, expected ECB rate cuts, and geopolitical uncertainty surrounding US-EU trade relations. Future direction hinges on the tone of ECB communication and any breakthroughs—or lack thereof—in transatlantic trade policy.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: The pair fell to around 1.3230 during Thursday’s European session, ending a seven-day winning streak after peaking at a six-month high of 1.3292. This pullback reflects a reassessment of bullish sentiment amid weaker UK macro data.
- UK Inflation: Headline UK CPI rose 2.6% YoY in March, missing the 2.7% forecast and down from February’s 2.8%. This suggests weaker price pressures, which typically reduces the case for further rate hikes.
- Services Inflation: Services inflation, a core measure for the Bank of England, slowed to 4.7% from 5.0%, reinforcing market expectations of a rate cut in May. This contributes to GBP’s weakness as monetary policy outlook softens.
- Labor Market: The UK labor market shows signs of deterioration, worsened by the recent increase in employer national insurance contributions. This may weigh on employment and growth, pushing the BoE further toward easing measures.
- US Economic Releases: Attention now shifts to upcoming US data—including housing and jobless figures—which could affect USD strength and GBP/USD dynamics. Strong US data may provide additional headwinds for the pair.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: GBP/USD is experiencing a corrective pullback amid softer UK inflation data and rising expectations of a BoE rate cut. With the UK labor market weakening and key US data due, the pair faces increased downside risk in the near term.
XAUUSD
- XAU/USD Price: Gold is currently trading around $3330, entering a bullish consolidation phase after hitting a fresh all-time high. This price action reflects continued safe-haven demand amid market volatility and geopolitical uncertainty.
- Global Chip Sector: A sharp decline in chip stocks, triggered by ASML’s warnings about tariff-driven uncertainty through 2026, has amplified risk-off sentiment. This shift supports gold, as investors seek safety from tech sector headwinds.
- Nvidia Restricted: Nvidia’s announcement of a $5.5 billion revenue loss due to US export controls on its China-specific AI chip has rattled markets. Rising tech regulation concerns are fueling demand for non-cyclical assets like gold.
- Powell's Signals: Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a wait-and-see approach on policy changes, citing stagflation risks driven by tariffs. His stance underlines the growing uncertainty in monetary policy, which is typically bullish for gold.
- US-Japan Trade Talks: Japan’s PM described trade talks with the US as “constructive,” but little immediate resolution was offered. The persistence of global trade tensions continues to support gold’s appeal as a hedge against economic disruption.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: Gold remains technically strong and fundamentally supported, driven by rising trade tensions, tech sector instability, and central bank caution amid stagflation risks. Unless significant clarity emerges on global trade and policy, XAU/USD is likely to remain elevated or trend higher in the near term.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude Oil Price: WTI crude is trading around $63.10, extending gains for the second consecutive day. This reflects short-term bullish momentum, likely driven by geopolitical developments and supply-related news.
- US Sanctions on Iran: The Trump administration imposed new sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, including targeting a Chinese "teapot" refinery. This escalates tensions and adds to supply-side risks, supporting crude prices.
- OPEC Producers: OPEC has received updated commitments from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and others to make additional output cuts to offset earlier overproduction. These signals of tighter supply conditions are price-positive for WTI.
- WTO Forecast: The WTO downgraded global goods trade growth to -0.2%, a sharp reversal from the previously expected 3.0% expansion. This reflects weakening global demand, which could temper oil’s upside potential.
- US Economic Data: Investors are now watching for US jobless claims, housing data, and Fed commentary, which could influence near-term price action. Strong data might bolster confidence in demand, while weakness could revive demand-side concerns.
| SMA (20) | Falling |  | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
|
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling | | |
Closing statement: Crude oil is seeing renewed upward momentum driven by geopolitical tensions and reinforced supply discipline from OPEC members. However, deteriorating global trade conditions and upcoming US economic data could limit further gains or introduce short-term volatility.
DAX
- DAX Price: The DAX finished above 21,300, breaking last week’s high after a late-session rally. This technical breakout signals strong underlying momentum, though sustaining it will require continued support from macro and geopolitical conditions.
- European Stocks: Markets opened Thursday on a weaker note, weighed down by renewed U.S.-China trade tensions and pre-ECB announcement caution. This reflects market sensitivity to global risk sentiment and monetary policy expectations.
- China's Conditions: While rejecting U.S. rhetoric as “number games,” China indicated openness to negotiations if the U.S. shows “consistency and respect.” This dual stance keeps trade uncertainty elevated but offers a glimmer of diplomatic potential.
- Green Car Policy: European People’s Party leader Weber called for softening the 2035 green car targets, potentially reducing regulatory pressure on automakers. This could be supportive for the DAX's auto-heavy index composition, especially in the near term.
- US Retail Sales: US retail sales surged by 1.4% in March, the strongest rise in over two years, beating expectations. This data boosts global demand sentiment, providing indirect support to export-oriented European stocks.
| SMA (20) | Falling | | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
|
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling | | |
Closing statement: The DAX is exhibiting technical strength, bolstered by improved US data and potential regulatory relief in Europe. However, geopolitical and central bank-related risks remain immediate hurdles. The index’s ability to hold above 21,300 will depend on market reaction to ECB signals and evolving US-China trade dynamics.