EURUSD
- EUR/USD fell 0.1% to 1.0991, retreating from the one-year high seen last week.
- The European Central Bank is expected to continue hiking interest rates for longer than its US counterpart, amid fears of inflation.
- The US dollar bounced back in early European trade after strong earnings from Wall Street banking giants.
- The Federal Reserve may pause its rate-hiking cycle in May due to concerns about weakness in the banking sector and the risk of a mild recession.
- Overall , there are mixed signals affecting the EUR/USD exchange rate, with expectations of diverging Overall monetary policies between the ECB and the Fed.
| SMA (1D) | rising |
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| RSI (1D) | falling |
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| MACD (1D) | neutral |
Closing statement: Closing statement: The EUR/USD exchange rate is currently experiencing some volatility as traders weigh the potential impact of diverging monetary policies between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve, as well as recent economic data and corporate earnings reports.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD rose 0.1% to 1.2419, with the U.K. set to release February employment data on Tuesday, followed by March inflation data a day later, which could determine whether Bank of England officials decide to hike interest rates by another 25 basis points at their meeting next month.
- The market thought the Bank of England's base rate would top out between 4.75% and 5.0% in Q4 22. Now, pricing in the swaps market sees the peak likely at 4.50%-4.75%.
- Sterling made a new high since last June before the weekend ($1.2545) and reversed lower, testing the 20-day MA this morning.
- The DXY, which tracks the dollar against six other currencies, traded flat this morning at 101.640. The index posted its fifth straight weekly loss on Friday, when it fell to a new one-year low of 100.78 in the wake of the U.S. producer prices index recording the biggest drop since the start of the pandemic.
| SMA (1D) | Rising |
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| RSI (1D) | Falling |
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| MACD (1D) | Slightly Falling |
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Closing statement: The pound continued to strengthen against the dollar on expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of England, while the dollar weakened following the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. producer prices index data.
GOLD
- Gold sank nearly 2% on Friday after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller called for more monetary policy tightening to reduce persistently high inflation.
- Gold had strengthened in the past week to trade about $40 away from record highs.
- Investors will have a final chance to hear from more Fed officials before they enter their traditional blackout period ahead of the meeting.
- Most investors now expect the Fed will hike rates another 25 basis points at its next policy meeting on May 3.
- Platinum and silver futures lost 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively, on Monday.
Closing statement: The price of gold faced a sharp decline after the call for more monetary policy tightening by a Federal Reserve governor. Investors are looking forward to hearing from more Fed officials before the traditional blackout period ahead of the meeting. Most investors expect the Fed will hike rates another 25 basis points at its next policy meeting on May 3. Other precious metals remained steady, with platinum and silver futures slightly decreasing on Monday.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude oil prices fell slightly in early Asian trade on Monday as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials on rising interest rates pushed up the dollar.
- China's first-quarter GDP, industrial production, and retail sales data are due this week, with expectations of a rebound in growth after lifting anti-COVID restrictions earlier this year.
- Crude oil prices recovered from 15-month lows after OPEC+ announced an unexpected production cut and supply disruptions in Iraqi Kurdistan.
- The recent rally appears to have run out of steam amid concerns over slowing economic growth in major economies, offsetting a recovery in Chinese demand.
| SMA (1D) | Rising |
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| RSI (1D) | Slightly Rising |
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| MACD (1D) | Rising |
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Closing statement: The crude oil market will likely be closely watching the Chinese economic data releases this week, which could provide more insights into the demand outlook for the world's largest oil importer. The market will also continue to monitor supply dynamics and any developments related to the OPEC+ production cut agreement.
DAX
- The DAX rose by 0.50% on Friday to close at 15,808, extending its winning streak to five sessions.
- Softer inflation numbers from Germany and France supported buyer appetite, while hawkish Fed chatter led to a late pullback from session highs.
- German wholesale prices increased by 0.2% in March, softer than the forecasted 2.5% surge, and French annual inflation rate softened from 6.3% to 5.7% in March.
| SMA (1D) | Rising |
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| RSI (1D) | Slightly Rising |
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| MACD (1D) | Slightly Rising |
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Closing statement: The DAX had a bullish end to the week, with hopes of central banks nearing an end to their monetary policy tightening cycle delivering support. Softer inflation numbers in Germany and France supported buyer appetite, while hawkish Fed chatter led to a late pullback from session highs.