EURUSD
- EUR/USD increased by 0.17% to 1.0892, bouncing back from a five-week low overnight, before the release of preliminary Q1 growth data for the euro zone.
- The European Commission raised its GDP estimate for this year to 1%, up from the previous estimate of 0.8%.
- The Commission also revised its inflation forecasts higher, predicting 5.8% for this year and 2.8% in 2024 for the euro area, with expectations of the ECB continuing with rate hikes that may add to growth concerns.
- The US dollar stabilized in early European trade, coming off a five-week high due to its haven status as the US debt ceiling standoff continued in Washington.
- Investors will be watching closely for further developments in the US debt ceiling situation and the release of euro zone growth data.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling |  | ||
| RSI (14) | Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: Investors will be keeping a close eye on economic data releases and central bank actions this week, as uncertainty surrounding the global economy and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on the markets.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD fell 0.3% to 1.2494 following the unexpected rise in the UK unemployment rate to 3.9% in the three months to March, which could lead to the Bank of England pausing its run of interest rate increases at its next meeting in June.
- Martin Beck, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, stated that the data did not provide obvious support for another rate rise next month.
- The DXY, which tracks the dollar against six other currencies, traded mostly flat at 102.250.
- Traders will focus on the release of U.S. retail sales data for April, expected to show sales grew 0.8% on the month, an improvement from last month's significant drop of 0.6%.
GOLD
- Gold prices fell slightly in early Asian trade on Tuesday despite concerns over potential US default on its debts.
- Gold retained its support at $2,000 and tested the 23.6% Fibonacci level traced back from February 28 low.
- Federal Reserve officials warned that interest rates could still rise further amid relatively high inflation and a robust labor market.
- The potential for a US default on its debts has helped the dollar push higher, with traders seeking the greenback as a haven in times of stress.
- President Joe Biden expressed confidence a deal can be done, but Republican House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy said on Monday that the two sides were still far apart.
Closing statement: Traders are closely monitoring the ongoing debt ceiling negotiations in the US and the potential impact on gold prices and the dollar.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude oil futures traded sideways on Tuesday amid mostly weaker-than-expected data from China, which has muddied the outlook for demand from the world's top crude importer.
- The U.S. Department of Energy's announcement to refill its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) by buying 3 million barrels of crude oil for delivery in August has underpinned prices.
- Supply concerns due to wildfires in Canada earlier in the day pushed prices higher, but they came under pressure later in the session due to the weak data from China.
- Industrial output and retail sales growth in China both undershot forecasts in April, suggesting the world's second-largest economy lost momentum at the start of the second quarter.
- The direction of crude oil prices will likely continue to be influenced by factors such as global demand, supply levels, and geopolitical events.
| SMA (20) | Falling | |
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| RSI (14) | Neutral | |||
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Neutral |
Closing statement: Overall, crude oil futures are facing mixed signals from various factors, including global demand, supply levels, and economic indicators. The direction of crude oil prices will likely continue to be influenced by these factors in the coming days and weeks.
DAX
- European stock markets traded higher on Tuesday despite concerns over global growth and political uncertainty.
- The DAX index in Germany traded lower by 0.32%, while the FTSE 100 in the UK climbed 0.1% and the CAC 40 in France traded largely unchanged.
- The euro zone's preliminary first-quarter growth data is expected to show only a marginal increase of 0.1% in the quarter and 1.3% on an annual basis.
- The German ZEW economic sentiment index for May, which measures the outlook for Germany's economy, is expected to show a decline in sentiment.
- Investors continue to monitor corporate earnings and global growth concerns.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Neutral | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Neutral |
Closing statement:Despite some mixed economic data and political uncertainty, European stock markets remained relatively stable on Tuesday as investors kept a close eye on the euro zone's growth prospects and corporate earnings.