Daily Analysis 15/04/2025

• GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD pair is defending light bids near 1.3200 in early European trading on Tuesday, showing resilience despite mixed UK labor data and broader uncertainty surrounding US rate policy.
• UK Unemployment Data: The UK Unemployment Rate remained at 4% in the three months to February. However, Average Earnings growth missed expectations, undermining consumer spending prospects and slightly weighing on the British Pound.
• UK Jobless Claims: Jobless claims increased by 18.7K in February, better than the forecasted 30.3K, although higher than January’s revised 16.5K. The softer rise helped limit downside risks for GBP amid labor market softness.
• Fed Rate Cut: Investors are now pricing in a 90 basis point Fed rate cut by year-end, following dovish signals and softer inflation data in the US. This expectation is pressuring the US Dollar, offering indirect support to GBP/USD.
• BoE Rate Cut: The British Pound is drawing strength from reduced expectations of a near-term BoE rate cut, with markets now less confident in a May move. The divergence between Fed and BoE outlooks is narrowing the policy gap, favoring sterling.

Closing statement: GBP/USD stays buoyant near recent highs, balancing UK labor market caution with US rate cut pricing. Going forward, BoE commentary and US macro data will be key in determining if the pair can sustain momentum above the 1.3200 level.

• XAU/USD Price: Gold (XAU/USD) regains bullish traction, trading around $3,225 per ounce in Tuesday’s European session, supported by persistent US tariff uncertainty and investor risk aversion.
• China ETFs: According to the World Gold Council, Chinese gold ETFs have seen notable inflows so far in April, signaling robust demand for physical gold as investors hedge against escalating global economic and trade risks.
• Tariff News: While Trump’s temporary suspension of tariffs on consumer electronics and autos boosted risk sentiment, lingering concerns over future trade policy continue to support safe-haven flows into gold.
• Fed’s Waller: Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned that recent tariffs may deliver a substantial economic shock, which could force the Fed into preemptive rate cuts. This dovish shift bolsters gold’s appeal amid growing recession fears.
• China Q1 GDP: Investors are cautiously positioned ahead of China’s Q1 GDP release on Wednesday, as weak growth could fuel global slowdown fears and trigger further demand for gold as a defensive asset.

Closing statement: Gold remains in demand amid rising global uncertainty, driven by tariff-related risks, ETF inflows, and dovish Fed commentary. Near-term direction hinges on China's economic data and further clarity on US trade policy.

• Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices remain stable around $61.70 during Tuesday's Asian session, with traders weighing recent geopolitical developments and economic data ahead of key events.
• Tariff Relief: Friday’s rally was driven by the Trump administration’s decision to exclude smartphones, computers, and other electronics from new tariffs, easing trade war tensions and supporting demand expectations for crude.
• China’s Oil Imports: China’s March crude oil imports surged nearly 5% year-over-year, with analysts attributing the rise to accelerated purchases of Iranian oil in anticipation of stricter US sanctions on Tehran.
• Export Surge: China Customs reported a 12.4% jump in exports in March, suggesting Chinese firms rushed shipments before tariffs bite—adding a short-term lift to trade activity and energy transport demand.
• Upcoming Data: Traders now shift focus to the Empire State Manufacturing Index and, more critically, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Wednesday, which may offer policy clues impacting broader risk sentiment and oil markets.

Closing statement: Crude oil prices remain buoyed by tariff relief, strong Chinese data, and geopolitical tailwinds. However, Fed communication and potential sanctions on Iran could shape the next directional move in the days ahead.

• DAX Price: Following Monday’s 3% surge, the DAX is expected to maintain stability on Tuesday as it further recovers from early-April losses triggered by US tariff policy uncertainty.
• German Wholesale Prices: Data from Destatis reveals that Germany’s wholesale prices rose 1.3% YoY in March, marking a steady acceleration from +1.6% in February and +0.9% in January, hinting at gradual inflationary pressures building within the supply chain.
• ECB Rate Cut: The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to implement its third consecutive interest rate cut on Thursday, reflecting ongoing accommodation to offset trade-related risks and softer inflation across the Eurozone.
• G7 Meetings: Finance ministers and central bank heads from the G7 nations will meet in the US on April 23, where the focus will likely be on global trade dynamics, monetary policy coordination, and inflation containment.
• Upcoming Data: Investors will keep a close eye on Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index and various inflation reports on Tuesday, with US Empire State Manufacturing Index also on the docket—potentially setting the tone for transatlantic risk sentiment.

Closing statement: The DAX remains in recovery mode as markets digest incoming inflation data and prepare for the ECB’s next move. Upcoming G7 talks and Fed commentary will be critical in shaping the next leg of investor positioning.