EURUSD
- The EUR/USD is experiencing a two-day decline, with the pair dropping to a fresh one-week low near 1.0930 in the early hours of Monday morning in Europe. This decline follows the previous week's trend.
- Last Thursday, the EUR/USD managed to reach its highest level in two weeks, surpassing 1.1060. However, this bullish momentum could not be sustained, leading to the subsequent decline.
- The Euro Stoxx Index, representing European stocks, has plummeted by over 1% during the European morning. Concurrently, US stock index futures are trading flat, which is inhibiting EUR/USD from gaining any significant traction.
- Italian Prime Minister Meloni has announced the exclusion of further challenges to the banking sector after the recent windfall tax announcements, providing some stability to the financial landscape.
- ECB officials have recently hinted at potential changes in policy during their public appearances. The ECB's monthly economic outlook underscores macroeconomic uncertainties, fueling hopes among Euro bears.
| SMA (20) | Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling |
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Closing statement: EUR/USD has faced a downturn over the past two days, retreating to a one-week low, following a failed attempt to maintain bullish momentum. Market factors such as European stock declines, subdued US stock index futures, and the ECB's economic outlook contribute to the current dynamics of the pair.
GBPUSD
- The GBP/USD pair is enduring its fourth consecutive week of negative performance, remaining under consistent downward pressure.
- Despite positive UK data, the Pound Sterling struggles to gain traction due to concerns about the potential implications of further rate hikes on the UK economy
- The UK's Office for National Statistics reported that the Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 0.4% in the second quarter. This surpassed market expectations for a 0.2% growth.
- Other UK data indicated robust growth in industrial sectors. Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production both increased by 1.8% and 2.4% respectively on a monthly basis in June.
- GBP/USD is facing immediate resistance around 1.2725/1.2730, where the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50-period SMA coincide, possibly acting as a barrier to further gains.
| SMA (20) | Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling |
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Closing statement:The GBP/USD pair continues to grapple with downward pressure, marking its fourth consecutive week of negative performance. Positive UK economic indicators, including better-than-expected GDP growth and robust industrial production, fail to counterbalance concerns about potential rate hikes' impact on the UK economy. The pair faces resistance at key technical levels, notably around the 1.2725/1.2730 range, indicated by the alignment of the 20-period SMA and the 50-period SMA.
GOLD
- Gold prices experienced a decline to their lowest levels in a month on Monday, driven by the influence of a strengthening dollar amid concerns of heightened U.S. inflation leading to potential interest rate hikes.
- Last week's data indicated a slight uptick in U.S. inflation for July, breaking the trend of steady declines earlier this year. This development sparked concerns that the Federal Reserve might need to implement further interest rate hikes to manage inflationary pressures.
- The notion of potential interest rate hikes drove the dollar to achieve its highest point in over a month against a basket of currencies, exerting pressure on gold prices.
- U.S. consumer price data from Thursday revealed a moderate increase in July, with core inflation experiencing its smallest annual growth in nearly two years. This led to hopes that the Federal Reserve could be nearing the conclusion of its rate hike cycle.
- Despite the data, San Francisco Fed Bank President and CEO Mary Daly emphasized the necessity for further progress before feeling assured that the Federal Reserve has taken adequate steps to curb inflation.
Closing statement: Gold prices descended to their lowest levels in a month due to a strengthening dollar prompted by concerns over rising U.S. inflation and its potential implications for interest rate hikes. While recent data hinted at a moderation in inflation, caution remains as San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly indicated the need for more progress before considering the inflation situation under control.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude oil prices experienced a marginal decline on Monday, influenced by a strengthening dollar. The dollar's rise was driven by signs of reemerging U.S. inflation concerns, which cast a shadow on the oil market.
- Despite the downward pressure, crude oil's losses were limited due to the recent supply cuts implemented by Saudi Arabia and Russia. These cuts have indicated the possibility of tighter market conditions, providing support to crude prices.
- Crude oil prices maintained proximity to their strongest levels for the year, highlighting the lingering positive sentiment around the market.
- Apprehensions regarding a potential slowdown in China's economic growth contributed to the cautious mood in crude markets. Weak economic readings from China over the past couple of weeks have fueled these concerns.
- While Chinese officials have pledged additional stimulus measures to bolster economic growth, specific details about the implementation of such stimulus remain scarce.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling |
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Closing statement: Crude oil prices faced slight downward pressure on Monday, driven by a stronger dollar fueled by renewed worries about U.S. inflation. Nevertheless, the market found some support from recent production cuts by major oil producers Saudi Arabia and Russia, indicating a potential for tighter supply conditions. Concerns over slowing growth in China, combined with uncertainty around stimulus measures, contributed to the overall cautious sentiment in the crude oil market.
DAX
- The DAX index experienced a bearish end to a week characterized by negative sentiment. On Friday, the DAX retreated by 1.03%, concluding the week with a cumulative decline of 0.75% and closing at 15,832.
- The DAX's downward movement on Friday was influenced by hotter-than-expected U.S. producer price index numbers, which heightened concerns about potential actions from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
- The auto sector recorded a bearish session on Friday. Notably, Continental AG saw a significant slide of 3.21%. Other major automakers, including Mercedes-Benz Group and BMW, faced losses of 1.87% and 1.73% respectively. Porsche and Volkswagen also ended the day with declines of 0.78% and 0.65%.
- The banking sector exhibited a mixed performance on Friday. Commerzbank managed to gain 2.23%, whereas Deutsche Bank faced a decline of 0.71%.
- Among the worst performers on Friday was Continental AG, which experienced a notable decline of 3.21%.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling |
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Closing statement: The DAX index concluded the week on a bearish note, reflecting the prevalent negative sentiment. The negative impact of hotter-than-expected U.S. producer price index data played a role in this downturn. The auto sector witnessed significant declines, while the banking sector displayed mixed performance. Continental AG stood out among the worst performers for the day.