EURUSD
- The EUR/USD pair has recovered from its recent losses, trading around 1.0785 during the Asian session on Tuesday, indicating a rebound in euro strength.
- Technical analysis suggests a sideways trend for the pair, with it continuing to remain within a symmetrical triangle pattern, signaling indecision in the market.
- FOMC Governor Phillip Jefferson advocated for maintaining the current monetary policy stance until there are clear signs of moderation in price pressures towards the Fed's 2% goal, impacting market sentiment towards the US dollar.
- The upcoming release of the Producer Prices Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) later in the week is expected to provide further insights into the potential timing of the Fed's rate-cut program, influencing investor expectations for future monetary policy actions.
- Recent statements from ECB policymakers have indicated an increasing likelihood of the bank initiating its easing program in June, although uncertainties remain about future decisions beyond the summer. ECB Vice President de Guindos emphasized caution in predicting trends beyond June during remarks on Thursday.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: EUR/USD saw a recovery from recent losses, with the pair trading higher during the Asian session on Tuesday. Technical analysis suggests a sideways trend, reflecting market indecision. Fed commentary regarding monetary policy stance and upcoming inflation data releases are expected to influence market sentiment towards the US dollar. Meanwhile, the ECB's potential easing program in June adds to uncertainties about the euro's future trajectory, with policymakers exercising caution in predicting trends beyond the summer.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD is trading around 1.2550 during the Asian session on Tuesday, reflecting improved risk appetite and stability in the currency pair.
- The UK's Office for National Statistics reported that the ILO Unemployment Rate rose to 4.3% in the three months to March, matching market expectations. However, other details of the job report, such as the Claimant Count Change and Employment Change, failed to elicit a significant reaction in GBP/USD.
- Despite the release of UK unemployment data, GBP/USD remained virtually unchanged on the day, hovering slightly above 1.2550, indicating muted market reaction to the figures.
- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York conducted a consumer sentiment survey, revealing that US consumers anticipate a widespread acceleration in inflation over the next year, with expectations rising to 3.3% from 3.0% reported in March for consumer one-year inflation expectations.
- The combination of UK unemployment data and US consumer sentiment survey results may influence short-term market sentiment towards GBP/USD, with traders monitoring economic indicators for potential shifts in currency dynamics.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: GBP/USD maintained stability around 1.2550 during the Asian session on Tuesday, supported by improved risk appetite. While UK unemployment data showed a slight uptick in the ILO Unemployment Rate, other job report details failed to spur significant movement in the currency pair. Meanwhile, a US consumer sentiment survey revealed higher inflation expectations among consumers, potentially impacting market sentiment towards the US dollar. Traders will continue to monitor economic indicators for insights into GBP/USD dynamics in the short term.
GOLD
- The daily chart for gold indicates a potential bearish trend, with technical indicators trending southward and approaching their midlines from above. This suggests a decrease in buying interest, although it's not sufficient to confirm a bearish extension yet.
- The New York Federal Reserve's monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations revealed that inflation expectations for the next year rose to 3.3%, up from 3% in March. Higher inflation expectations may impact market sentiment towards gold.
- Federal Reserve Vice-Chairman Philip Jefferson made hawkish remarks, expressing concerns about inflation, and advocating for maintaining the policy rate in restrictive territory. Such comments can influence gold prices as investors gauge the Fed's stance on monetary policy.
- Market focus will shift to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) report for April and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Tuesday. These events could provide further insights into the economic outlook and the Fed's policy stance, affecting gold prices.
- Market participants are awaiting the release of the US April Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday, projected to be at 3.4% year-on-year, slightly below the 3.5% recorded in March. Any deviation from expectations in the CPI data could influence investor sentiment towards gold.
Closing statement: Gold prices face technical pressure as indicators suggest a potential bearish trend, while market sentiment remains influenced by US inflation expectations and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials. Traders are closely monitoring upcoming economic data releases, including the US Producer Price Index (PPI) report and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, for insights into inflation trends and the Fed's policy outlook, which could impact gold prices in the short term.
CRUDE OIL
- West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are trading around $79.15 per barrel during Tuesday's session.
- These gains are attributed to uncertainties surrounding crude oil supply, particularly due to wildfires in remote western Canada, which could impact the country's production capacity of 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd).
- Hayan Abdul Ghani, Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Affairs and Minister of Oil of Iraq, reiterated Iraq's commitment to the voluntary oil production cuts agreed upon by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). This reaffirmation indicates continued efforts to support oil prices through supply management.
- Federal Reserve (Fed) officials' suggestions that interest rates may remain elevated for an extended period could potentially affect economic growth and diminish oil demand in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer. Elevated interest rates tend to dampen economic activity, which in turn affects oil consumption.
- Investors are anticipating the release of the OPEC Monthly Market Report (MOMR) on Tuesday, providing insights into significant factors influencing the global oil market and offering projections for oil market trends. Additionally, attention will be on the American Petroleum Institute (API) Weekly Crude Oil Stock report, which provides comprehensive data on US refinery operations and petroleum product production.
| SMA (20) | Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling |
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Closing statement: Crude oil prices are experiencing volatility amid uncertainties surrounding supply disruptions, including wildfires in western Canada and Iraq's commitment to production cuts. Federal Reserve officials' indications of prolonged elevated interest rates may impact oil demand, particularly in the US, the world's largest oil consumer. Traders await key reports such as the OPEC Monthly Market Report and API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report for insights into global oil market trends and supply dynamics, which will likely influence oil price movements in the near term.
DAX
- Investors on Monday shifted their attention to the US economic calendar amid signals from the European Central Bank (ECB) suggesting a potential interest rate cut in June. Concerns arose over whether the ECB would wait for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates before taking action.
- News of the US imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles heightened concerns about a potential trade war, dampening appetite for riskier assets such as stocks. Uncertainties surrounding trade tensions between the US and China could impact market sentiment and investor confidence.
- Germany's inflation rate, measured by the year-on-year change in the consumer price index (CPI), stood at +2.2% in April 2024. Additionally, consumer prices in April 2024 rose by 0.5% compared to March 2024. These inflation figures provide insights into price trends and consumer spending patterns in the German economy.
- A potential increase in the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for Germany may drive demand for DAX-listed stocks. Economists forecast the index to rise from 42.9 to 46.3, indicating improved economic sentiment among financial analysts and investors.
- Investors should also consider corporate earnings results, as they provide insights into the financial health and performance of companies listed on the DAX. Upcoming earnings releases from Rheinmetall AG and Porsche are among the notable events that could influence market sentiment and stock prices.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: The DAX experienced a mixed trading session as investors monitored developments in the US economic calendar and trade tensions between the US and China. Signals from the ECB regarding a potential interest rate cut in June added to market uncertainty, while German inflation data showed a modest increase. A potential rise in the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index could drive demand for DAX-listed stocks, while upcoming corporate earnings releases from Rheinmetall AG and Porsche will provide further insights into market sentiment and company performance. Investors remain cautious amid ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties, which may continue to influence DAX movements in the near term.