EURUSD
While there was no important data flow announced on the European front on the first trading day of the week, developments regarding the agenda were followed. The news flow was at the forefront that the amount of financial measures taken against the energy crisis in European countries reached approximately 800 billion euros. The rise in wholesale energy prices prompted governments in European countries to take measures to protect consumers from the direct impact of rising prices. The US federal government's budget deficit was $39 billion in January as revenues fell and spending increased. CPI in the USA and growth figures in the Euro Zone will be followed today.
Technical Analysis
| Support & Resistance | Level |
|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 1.0825 |
| Resistance 2 | 1.0777 |
| Resistance 1 | 1.0750 |
| Support 1 | 1.0676 |
| Support 2 | 1.0628 |
| Support 3 | 1.0602 |
Daily Pivot Levels
GBPUSD
Jonathan Haskel, an external member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, warned that business investment has stalled due to Brexit, dealing a £1,000 ($1,204) per household blow to the UK economy. Haskel pointed out that the UK has suffered much more from productivity woes since its exit from the European Union led to a sharp drop in the pace of business investment. Haskel reported that "productivity loss" from Brexit is currently 1.3% of gross domestic product, or around £29 billion in total, or £1,000 per household.
Technical Analysis
| Support & Resistance | Level |
|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 1.2305 |
| Resistance 2 | 1.2228 |
| Resistance 1 | 1.2183 |
| Support 1 | 1.2062 |
| Support 2 | 1.1986 |
| Support 3 | 1.1941 |
Daily Pivot Levels
XAUUSD
While gold was supporting the 1860 level last week, it is operating the 1850 level as support this week. An ounce of gold is cautiously above $1850 level. The dollar index is trading in the range of 103.10-103.26 this morning. US stocks had some buying yesterday and US futures are trading lightly this morning. Today is inflation day in the USA. Inflation data for January will be announced. Fed Chairman Powell made statements that they would raise interest rates for a while, but that the disinflationary process had begun. Whether today's data will support the Fed will be important. After the data, there may be changes in expectations about the Fed. Data-based movement can be tracked.
Technical Analysis
| Support & Resistance | Level |
|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 1879 |
| Resistance 2 | 1873 |
| Resistance 1 | 1863 |
| Support 1 | 1847 |
| Support 2 | 1840 |
| Support 3 | 1831 |
Daily Pivot Levels
BRENT OIL
Oil prices are flat this morning. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak made statements about countries that did not impose an embargo on Russia during the Ukraine-Russia war period. He announced that Russia plans to sell more than 80% of its oil exports to these countries, which it calls friends, in 2023. He added that Moscow continues its search for new markets. Last year, the United States began selling strategic oil reserves (SPRs) to prevent the rise in oil prices. According to an incoming statement, it is stated that the US government will sell another 26 million barrels of SPR. Weekly oil stocks and US CPI will be released by API today. Data-based movement can be seen.
S&P500
In pre-data market pricing, there is an 88 percent probability that the Fed will increase interest rates by 25 basis points at its March meeting. The 50 basis point rate hike, which entered the pricing after the strong employment data pointing out that the desired cooling did not occur in the economy, is seen as a weak possibility with 12 percent. On the other hand, it is stated that a higher than expected CPI data will support the expectations that the Fed will apply for a stronger interest rate hike. The S&P 500 closed the session with 1.14% gains at 4.137. As of this morning, the outlook for the S&P 500 futures contract is at 4.134.
