EURUSD
- The EUR/USD is currently testing February 1st highs, breaking above the 50% Fibonacci level that it has been testing for a while.
- Despite a slight rise in the dollar during early European trade on Thursday, the possibility of an early end to the Federal Reserve's rate hikes is still present after cooler-than-expected inflation data.
- The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue hiking interest rates for longer than its U.S. counterpart in order to control rising prices.
- German inflation data released on Wednesday showed a rise of 0.8% on the month in March, and 7.4% on an annual basis, illustrating the challenges the ECB faces.
| SMA (1D) | Rising | 
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| RSI (1D) | Rising |
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| MACD (1D) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: Overall, the EUR/USD is testing key levels and the dollar remains under pressure due to cooler-than-expected inflation data. The European Central Bank's stance on interest rates and inflation will be important to watch going forward.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD rose 0.2% to around 1.25100, trading near levels last seen in late May last year.
- U.K. inflation remains in double digits, having accelerated to 10.4% in February.
- Britain's economy failed to grow as expected in February as strikes by public workers hit output.
- The DXY, which tracks the dollar against six other currencies, traded flat this morning at 101.460.
- U.S. consumer prices moved 0.1% higher in March, resulting in an annual increase of 5.0%, below the 5.2% expected.
- Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 5.6% on an annual basis, up from 5.5% the prior month.
- These numbers are likely to mean that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates again next month.
| SMA (1D) | Rising |
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| RSI (1D) | Rising | |
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| MACD (1D) | Neutral |
Closing statement: The GBP/USD pair rose despite the disappointing growth in the British economy and the high inflation rate. Meanwhile, the US dollar remained relatively flat against other major currencies, and although US inflation was below expectations, the underlying inflation pressures remain strong, leading to expectations of another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
GOLD
- Gold is up 10-11% on the year, rising from under $1,850 in December to around $2,030. The collapse of several U.S. banks in March triggered a month-long rally in gold, as traders sought traditional safe havens.
- There are expectations that the U.S. central bank will cut interest rates before the end of the year, especially after the minutes from the last Fed meeting in March showed projections of a mild recession later this year.
- Today, more inflation data is being announced in the form of producer prices (Core PPI and PPI), which are expected to moderate from the same time last year, and unemployment claims, which are expected to inch higher than the prior week.
- Signs of worsening economic conditions are likely to benefit gold prices further, along with weakness in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields.
Closing statement: Gold has seen a significant increase in value this year due to economic uncertainty and concerns about potential interest rate cuts in the US. The market is closely watching inflation data and unemployment claims, as further signs of economic decline could continue to benefit gold prices.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude oil prices retreated on Thursday, showing concern over a possible U.S. recession and weaker oil demand.
- Prices are testing the 200 MA zone on the daily graph.
- U.S. crude oil inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to their lowest levels last week since November 1983, potentially impacting the energy market and leading to price fluctuations.
- The Biden administration plans to refill the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve soon, and hopes to do it at lower oil prices.
| SMA (1D) | Slightly Rising |
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| RSI (1D) | Neutral | ||
| MACD (1D) | Slightly Rising |
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Closing statement: Overall, crude oil prices are facing downward pressure due to concerns over a possible U.S. recession and weaker oil demand. However, the situation with the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve could potentially impact the market in the near future.
DAX
- Germany's DAX 40 is rising above 15,770 for the first time since January 2022.
- The DAX traded flat this morning at the moment of writing.
- European shares are on the rise, getting support from heavyweight luxury stocks after LVMH reported uplifting results.
- The CAC 40 futures in France and the FTSE 100 futures in the U.K. are also trading flat.
| SMA (1D) | Slightly Rising |
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| RSI (1D) | Neutral | |
| MACD (1D) | Slightly Rising |
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Closing statement: European shares, including Germany's DAX, are showing positive momentum as they continue to rise, driven by the support from luxury stocks and LVMH's upbeat results. However, it is still unclear where the DAX will move further as it is currently testing its current zone.