EURUSD
According to the ECB's consumer expectations survey, consumers in the Eurozone showed they expect lower inflation in the coming months. The average inflation expectation of consumers in the Eurozone for 12 months decreased from 5.4% to 5%. Consumers' inflation expectations for the next 3 years decreased from 3% to 2.9%. While consumer prices in the USA increased by 6.5% yoy in December in line with the expectations, they decreased by 0.1% on a monthly basis. Monthly inflation in December was the first negative monthly inflation since May 2020. The effect of low energy costs was effective in monthly negative inflation.
Technical Analysis
| Support & Resistance | Level |
|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 1,0925 |
| Resistance 2 | 1,0868 |
| Resistance 1 | 1,0868 |
| Support 1 | 1,0818 |
| Support 2 | 1,0778 |
| Support 3 | 1,0725 |
Daily Pivot Levels
GBPUSD
Yesterday, eyes were on inflation data in the USA. Consumer inflation in the US fell by 0.10% month-on-month in December, falling on the negative side for the first time since the pandemic. The country closed the year 2022 with an inflation increase of 6.5%. On the core inflation side, an increase of 0.3% monthly and 5.7% annually was recorded in line with the expectations. With the release of the data yesterday, it was seen that the bidirectional volatility increased in the pair. Today, industrial production, GDP and foreign trade balance data will be monitored in the UK, while Michigan consumer confidence index data will be followed in the USA. A slight downward trend is observed in the pair this morning.
Technical Analysis
| Support & Resistance | Level |
|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 1,2300 |
| Resistance 2 | 1,2246 |
| Resistance 1 | 1,2211 |
| Support 1 | 1,2086 |
| Support 2 | 1,2000 |
| Support 3 | 1,1940 |
Daily Pivot Levels
XAUUSD
Gold managed to stay above the $1865 level this week and awaited yesterday's US inflation data. In December, inflation in the USA remained below expectations and fell. In order to reduce inflation, the Fed has been tightening its monetary policy since 2022. Yesterday's data affected the expectations for the Fed meeting to be held between January 31 and February 01, and strengthened the 25 basis points probability. If the decline in inflation continues in this way, the markets even started to state that they do not expect an interest rate hike at the Fed's March meeting. Of course, this will depend on inflation data. For today, the US inflation effect may continue.
Technical Analysis
| Support & Resistance | Level |
|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 1917 |
| Resistance 2 | 1907 |
| Resistance 1 | 1899 |
| Support 1 | 1882 |
| Support 2 | 1873 |
| Support 3 | 1863 |
Daily Pivot Levels
BRENT OIL
Oil prices are watching with slight sellers this morning. Oil prices spent most of the week with buyers. Goldman Sachs announced that it has revised its expectations upwards for this year. Despite the increase in weekly inventories announced by API and DOE, oil prices continued to rise. China's opening news also continues to support oil prices. Expected inflation data in the USA were released yesterday. It fell short of expectations and the downward momentum continued. As this weakened the possibility of further aggressiveness in the Fed's policy, the dollar was negatively priced and commodities were priced positively. A 25 basis point rate hike is on the agenda for the February Fed meeting.
S&P500
The S&P 500 index closed yesterday at 3.984 with an increase of 0.03%. The decline in US inflation in December gave the markets morale. The reason for the rise in the US stock markets yesterday was US inflation. Following the declining inflation data, expectations for the Fed's meeting to be held between January 31 and February 01 began to become clear and the prospects for 25 basis points strengthened. This supported the stock markets and the dollar declined slightly. It can be expected that the US inflation effect will continue on pricing today. During the day, Fed officials also have speeches. Disclosures after inflation data may be important. Limited losses are seen in US futures this morning.
