EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure, trading below the 1.0950 mark during Friday's early European session, reflecting the strength of the US Dollar.
- US CPI Inflation: The US Dollar (USD) gained support following Thursday's higher- than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report, which dampened the upside for EUR/USD.
- ECB's Rate Cut Sentiment: European Central Bank (ECB) officials continue to advocate for rate cuts amidst signs of economic slowdown in the Eurozone, adding downward pressure on the Euro (EUR).
- German Inflation Data: Investors await the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) from Germany, expected to stay unchanged at 1.8% YoY in September, which may influence Euro sentiment.
- Upcoming US Data: The US Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, both due on Friday, are likely to impact the USD's movement and potentially push EUR/USD further down.
Closing statement: EUR/USD is likely to remain pressured due to the strong US Dollar and expectations of ECB rate cuts. Key inflation and sentiment data from both regions could dictate near-term direction, with further downside possible.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: The pair is trading around 1.3050, supported by weaker US Dollar demand, though buying interest remains limited.
- UK Economic Growth: The UK economy expanded by 0.2% in August, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), following two months of stagnation, offering some support to the Pound.
- US CPI: The headline US CPI inflation declined to 2.4% YoY in September, slightly less than anticipated, limiting the downside for the USD.
- US Jobless Claims: Initial Jobless Claims from Thursday signalled weakness in the US labour market, boosting expectations of continued rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
- US PPI Data: Focus shifts to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) release later today, with core PPI expected to rise to 2.7% YoY, which could impact the USD.
SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |
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RSI (14) | Falling |
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MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling |
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Closing statement: GBP/USD may remain range-bound near 1.3050, with subdued USD demand offering support. Key US inflation and labour data will likely determine the pair's next directional move.
GOLD
- Gold Gains: Gold price builds on Thursday's bounce from the $2,600 zone, marking positive traction for the second consecutive day on Friday.
- Fed Rate Cut Expectations: Gold continues to benefit from market expectations of a 25-bps rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, with an 86% probability of such a move priced in.
- US Labor Market Concerns: Initial Jobless Claims rose sharply by 33,000 last week, reaching 258,000, signaling potential weakness in the US labor market and supporting gold as a safe-haven asset.
- US Inflation Data: September's annual CPI inflation dropped to 2.4% from 2.5% in August, marking the lowest level since February 2021, although slightly above market expectations of 2.3%.
- China Stimulus Hopes: Optimism surrounding China’s upcoming fiscal stimulus package could provide additional support for gold prices. The market focus will also be on speeches from Fed policymakers.
SMA (20) | Rising |
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RSI (14) | Slightly Rising |
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MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: Gold's bullish momentum could persist as dovish Fed expectations and optimism around China’s stimulus package provide support. Key data from the US and Fed commentary will guide the next moves for XAU/USD.
CRUDE OIL
- WTI Price: US crude oil prices remain range-bound around $75.50 per barrel during Friday’s European session, struggling to extend Thursday’s gains.
- Geopolitical Risk: Ongoing concerns about a potential Israeli attack on Iranian oil infrastructure maintain a geopolitical risk premium, supporting crude oil prices.
- Supply Disruptions: Hurricane Milton's potential impact on US oil production, combined with an upbeat demand outlook, further supports the market.
- China Stimulus Hopes: Investors are optimistic that China’s large-scale stimulus measures will boost economic recovery, increasing fuel demand in the world's largest oil importer.
- USD Strength: A rally in the US Dollar, driven by reduced expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts, poses a headwind for oil prices, as a stronger USD makes oil more expensive for foreign buyers.
SMA (20) | Falling |
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RSI (14) | Rising |
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MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: WTI prices could remain supported by geopolitical risks and potential supply disruptions. However, USD strength may cap further upside, with China’s demand outlook being a key driver for oil's next directional move.
DAX
- DAX Decline: The DAX fell by 0.23% on Thursday, reversing some of Wednesday's 0.99% gain. Sentiment soured following the release of a hotter-than-expected US CPI report, weighing on demand for DAX-listed stocks.
- German Retail Sales: August retail sales rose by 1.6%, slightly above July's 1.5% increase. However, this failed to alleviate concerns about the health of the German economy.
- German Inflation Data: Friday's inflation report is a critical focus for investors, especially those betting on multiple ECB rate cuts in Q4 2024. Preliminary data suggests annual inflation eased to 1.6% in September, down from 1.9% in August.
- US Jobless Claims: An unexpected jump in US jobless claims, likely due to the hurricane season, partially mitigated the negative impact of the CPI report on market sentiment. Claims rose from 225k to 258k.
- US Economic Data: The upcoming release of US producer prices and consumer sentiment figures will influence market expectations around the Federal Reserve's rate path.
SMA (20) | Rising |
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RSI (14) | Slightly Rising |
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MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: The DAX may remain under pressure as investors weigh weak German economic data against potential ECB rate cuts. US inflation and sentiment data will also shape the market’s next move, particularly regarding Fed rate expectations.