EURUSD
- The EUR/USD was up 0.12% to $1.09120 in a slow moving market, caused by the Easter.
- U.S. Labor Department data on Friday showed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 236,000 jobs last month, just shy of the 239,000 expected by economists in a Reuters poll.
- U.S. employers maintained a strong pace of hiring in March, pushing the unemployment rate back down to 3.5% and signaling labor market resilience.
- From a technical point of view, EUR/USD still maintains a bullish short-term outlook, according to indicators on the daily chart, while still hovering around 50% Fibonacci level traced back from January 2021. highs.
| SMA (1D) | Rising |  |
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| RSI (1D) | Neutral | ||
| MACD (1D) | Neutral |
Closing statement: In summary, despite the slow-moving market due to the Easter holiday, the EUR/USD saw a slight increase of 0.12% to $1.09120. Nonfarm payrolls in the U.S. increased by 236,000 jobs in March, just below the expected 239,000, but signaling strong hiring and labor market resilience. From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD still has a bullish short-term outlook, hovering around the 50% Fibonacci level traced back from January 2021 highs.
GBPUSD
- The GBP/USD pair traded at $1.2428, up 0.14% on the day, in a ranging market.
- The DXY index, which measures the US dollar against six major currencies, rose 0.225% to 102.25, moving away from the two-month low of 101.40 it touched last week.
- According to Mansoor Mohi-uddin, chief economist at the Bank of Singapore, the labor market is still too tight for the Fed to lower inflation to its 2% target without further interest rate hikes.
- Investors are now focusing on the inflation report (CPI) due on Wednesday, which will shape the path the Fed will take in its battle against prices. The minutes of the central bank's last meeting in March are also scheduled to be released on Wednesday.
| SMA (1D) | Rising | |
|
| RSI (1D) | Neutral | ||
| MACD (1D) | Neutral |
Closing statement: In conclusion, the GBP/USD was relatively stable, with the sterling up 0.14% on the day in a ranging market. Investors will now turn their focus to the upcoming inflation report and the minutes of the Federal Reserve's last meeting to gain insight into the central bank's future monetary policy decisions. The labour market's tightness continues to pose a challenge for the Fed to lower inflation to its 2% target without further interest rate hikes.
GOLD
- Markets are pricing in a 66% chance of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in its May 2-3 meeting, up from 49.2% on Thursday.
- Gold has had an impressive gain of over 12% in the past month alone, skyrocketing from the $1,800 level at the beginning of March to above $2,000 an ounce this week.
- XAU/USD has made a small retracement after a long rally, currently trading at $1998 per ounce, down 0.5% for the day.
- The attention will now shift back to the CPI report, and much deviation from estimates is not expected when the number comes out in two days.
Closing statement: Overall, gold prices have been on an impressive rally, gaining over 12% in the past month alone. However, the recent increase in the probability of a rate hike by the Fed in May has put pressure on gold prices, causing a small retracement. The focus will now shift to the CPI report, and while much deviation from estimates is not expected, any surprises could impact gold prices in the short term.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude oil prices were mainly unchanged on Monday as investors weighed the prospect of tighter supplies from OPEC+ producers from May against concerns about weakening global growth that may dampen fuel demand.
- Crude rose for a third straight week last week, returning to levels last seen in November. It is still hovering between 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci level traced back from November 2022 highs.
- The closely watched U.S. inflation report to be released this week could help investors gauge the near-term trajectory for interest rates.
- Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, raised its May crude prices to term customers in Asia and the United States following the announcement about the output cut.
| SMA (1D) | Slightly Rising | | |
| RSI (1D) | Slightly Rising | | |
| MACD (1D) | Rising | |
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Closing statement: The crude oil market remains in a delicate balance between OPEC+ supply cuts and concerns over weakening global growth, with the upcoming U.S. inflation report likely to provide more clarity on the near-term trajectory of interest rates.
DAX
- German markets were closed for Good Friday, leaving investors to respond to the Jobs Report and shift in Fed sentiment.
- US Jobs Report fueled bets of a 25-basis point Fed interest rate hike in May, as nonfarm payrolls increased by 236k and the US unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%.
- Investors needed a bullish number to ease recessionary fears following the sharp increase in factory orders.
- It is a quieter day ahead on the economic calendar with Euro area retail sales figures for February in focus. Economists forecast a 0.8% decline.
- The US Jobs Report will likely have more influence on the DAX than the Euro area retail sales figures.
