EURUSD
- The EUR/USD pair rebounded during the American session, recovering from earlier losses and reaching the 1.0700 area. This movement suggests some resilience in the euro after initial setbacks.
- The final reading of the German Consumer Price Index (CPI) revealed an annual rate of 3.8%, marking the lowest level since August 2021. This data aligns with the overall slowdown in inflation. Given the economic concerns and inflation trends, the European Central Bank (ECB) is perceived to have concluded its tightening cycle.
- Recent comments from ECB policymakers, like Philip Lane, indicated that the central bank should not take too much comfort from recent inflation figures. This suggests that the ECB might maintain a cautious stance.
- Eurozone Retail Sales data for September showed a 0.3% drop, slightly above the expected -0.2%. Interestingly, August figures were revised higher from -1.2% to -0.7%. On a year-on-year basis, sales were down by 2.9%. This data indicates some challenges in the retail sector.
- The focus now shifts to the release of the US weekly Jobless Claims report and a panel discussion featuring Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, titled "Monetary Challenges in a Global Economy." Powell's remarks may provide insight into the Fed's monetary policy outlook.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |
|
|
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |
| |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
|
|
Closing statement:In summary, the EUR/USD exhibited some resilience, with attention to inflation trends and the ECB's stance. Eurozone retail sales data provided additional insights into the region's economic challenges, and upcoming US data and Powell's speech could impact the pair's direction.
GBPUSD
- After a loss of more than 50 pips on Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair spent the Asian session fluctuating within a narrow channel around the 1.2300 level on Wednesday. This suggests a period of consolidation following recent moves.
- Market participants are closely monitoring comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials throughout the week. Notably, these comments have not been as dovish as expected, which has provided support to the US dollar.
- Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari mentioned that the Fed will let inflation and labor data guide its next policy decision. Similarly, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that they will have a lot of data to analyze before the December meeting.
- Although Fed officials emphasized the importance of a data-dependent approach to policy, they have not clearly pushed back against the market's expectation for no change in the interest rate in December. This indicates a cautious stance by the Fed.
- Looking ahead, traders on Thursday will closely watch for insights from a scheduled speech by a Bank of England (BoE) official, Huw Pill. These remarks could provide further guidance on the UK's monetary policy and influence the GBP/USD pair.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |
| |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |
| |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
|
|
Closing statement: In summary, GBP/USD is currently in a consolidation phase, with a focus on Fed official comments, which have been less dovish than anticipated. Upcoming remarks from the BoE will also be monitored for potential impacts on the currency pair.
GOLD
- Gold price remains under pressure, trading near a multi-week low reached on Wednesday. This indicates a bearish sentiment in the gold market.
- Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell is expected to participate in a policy panel discussion titled "Monetary Policy Challenges in a Global Economy" at the 24th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference. Powell's remarks are highly anticipated by the markets as they can significantly influence gold prices.
- The direction of gold prices could be influenced by Powell's remarks during the conference. If Powell maintains a less hawkish stance, gold prices may see a rebound. However, if Powell refrains from providing clear cues on the Fed's interest rate outlook, it could add to the uncertainty surrounding gold's future price trajectory.
- Recent comments from various Fed officials have been mixed, contributing to uncertainty about whether the Fed is still planning to deliver another interest rate hike. This ambiguity has impacted the gold market.
- Despite a sell-off in US Treasury bond yields, the Fed's overall sentiment continues to support the view of higher interest rates over a longer timeframe. This has kept gold prices under pressure as higher interest rates can make non-interest-bearing assets like gold less attractive.
Closing statement:In summary, gold prices are currently under pressure, and they are awaiting guidance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech, which is expected to have a significant impact on the market's outlook for gold.
CRUDE OIL
- West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) prices are struggling to recover and have been on the defensive for the third consecutive day. This indicates bearish sentiment in the oil market.
- Worries regarding potential supply disruptions in the Middle East due to ongoing conflicts continue to affect oil prices. Geopolitical tensions in this region can disrupt oil supplies, contributing to price volatility.
- Concerns about dwindling demand in the United States and China, which are the world's largest consumers of oil, are putting pressure on oil prices. Recent data, including a report by the American Petroleum Institute (API), indicated a substantial increase in US crude inventories. This suggests weakening demand and could potentially be the largest weekly build since February.
- While China's crude imports in October were robust, the worsening economic outlook in the country is expected to lead to a reduction in fuel demand. This mixed data adds uncertainty to the oil market.
- From a technical standpoint, indicators on the daily chart are approaching oversold territory. This could indicate that the market is nearing a point of potential reversal, but it's essential to consider various factors beyond technical analysis when forecasting oil prices.
| SMA (20) | Falling |
|
|
| RSI (14) | Falling |
|
|
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling |
|
|
Closing statement:Crude Oil prices are currently facing downward pressure due to concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East, declining demand in key consumer markets like the US and China, and mixed data on China's crude imports. Technical indicators also suggest the market may be nearing oversold levels, which could be an important factor to watch for potential price movements.
DAX
- On Wednesday, German inflation data showed a slowdown, with the annual rate declining from 4.5% to 3.8%. In addition, Eurozone retail sales declined by 0.3%, indicating weaker consumer demand. These figures eased concerns that the European Central Bank (ECB) might maintain higher interest rates for an extended period.
- Despite the data, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane expressed concerns about inflation, suggesting that it might not return to the target rate of 2% until 2025. Lane's comments highlight the continued uncertainty regarding the central bank's approach to monetary policy.
- DAX received positive momentum from strong corporate earnings reports. Companies like Adidas, Continental, Commerzbank, Deutsche Post, and Siemens Healthineers posted upbeat earnings figures. Positive corporate results can boost investor confidence and positively impact stock indices like DAX.
- On Thursday, investors will be closely watching the ECB Economic Bulletin, which provides insights into the ECB's perspective on the economy, inflation, and monetary policy. The bulletin often includes projections and can influence market sentiment.
- There are no major Eurozone economic indicators on Thursday, but corporate earnings announcements will remain a significant driver of market direction. Companies like Deutsche Telekom AG, Merck, and Rheinmetall AG are scheduled to release their earnings results, and these reports can impact DAX's performance.
| SMA (20) | Falling |
|
|
| RSI (14) | Neutral | ||
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising |
|
Closing statement:In summary, while recent inflation and retail sales data eased some concerns about extended ECB rate hikes, the views of ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane and corporate earnings announcements are keeping the DAX index in focus. The ECB Economic Bulletin is expected to provide further insights into the central bank's outlook.