EURUSD
- EUR/USD continued its downtrend for the second consecutive session, hovering around 1.0750 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday.
- Fed's Kashkari expressed the likelihood of interest rates remaining unchanged for an extended period, contributing to market sentiment.
- Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin's comments suggested that increasing interest rates in the US could potentially limit economic growth, as reported by Bloomberg on Monday.
- Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) rebounded by 0.8% in March, following a downwardly revised 0.3% decline in February, indicating an improvement in consumer spending.
- ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane stated that recent data have reinforced his confidence that inflation in the Eurozone is moving closer to the 2% target, according to a report by Business Standard.
| SMA (20) | Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: EUR/USD sustained its losses amid remarks from Fed officials hinting at unchanged interest rates, while positive Eurozone retail sales data countered some of the downside pressure. Comments from ECB's Philip Lane on inflation targeting added further insight into the Euro's trajectory. Traders remain attentive to central bank statements and economic indicators for future market direction.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD exhibited a downtrend, trading around 1.2490 during the Asian session on Wednesday.
- NY Fed President John Williams indicated that rate cuts might eventually occur but expressed concern about higher monthly inflation prints.
- US Fed officials reiterated the need for more data to assess the outlook for inflation reaching the 2% target before considering rate cuts.
- Pound Sterling (GBP) weakened as investors awaited the upcoming monetary policy meeting, with the Bank of England (BoE) anticipated to maintain interest rates at 5.25%.
- BoE Governor Andrew Bailey previously expressed comfort with market expectations of two or three rate cuts for the year.
| SMA (20) | Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: GBP/USD traded lower amid concerns expressed by NY Fed President John Williams regarding inflation and the awaited monetary policy meeting of the Bank of England. While the BoE is expected to maintain interest rates, investors closely monitor policymakers' comments for insights into future rate decisions. Economic data and central bank statements will continue to influence the GBP/USD pair's movement.
GOLD
- Spot Gold experienced a slight pullback from the $2,330 price level but remains in positive territory today, trading within familiar ranges. Federal Reserve (Fed) Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari's speech suggested that interest rates are likely to remain unchanged for an extended period, influencing market sentiment.
- The expectation of sustained high interest rates in the United States has a negative impact on gold, as it increases the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal.
- Gold witnessed some safe-haven demand amid escalating conflict in the Middle East and stalled ceasefire talks, contributing to its resilience.
- Strong first-quarter demand for gold, fueled by significant over the counter (OTC) buying, marked its most robust performance since 2016.
Closing statement: Gold prices exhibited resilience despite a slight retreat, supported by safe-haven demand amid escalating conflict in the Middle East. While expectations of prolonged high interest rates in the United States weighed on gold, strong first-quarter demand, driven by significant over-the-counter buying, underscored its enduring appeal as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainties.
CRUDE OIL
- Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is currently trading around $78.00 per barrel on Wednesday, reflecting stable prices.
- Uncertainty persists in ceasefire talks in the Middle East, with Israel's war cabinet voting to continue military attacks and launching strikes on Gaza's southernmost city, contributing to geopolitical tensions. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported on Tuesday that US crude inventories for the week ending May 3 increased by 509,000 barrels, reversing the previous week's decline, indicating potential weak demand, and exerting downward pressure on oil prices.
- Saudi Arabia raised the price of its crude sold to various regions in June, citing strong demand expectations for the upcoming summer season, which supported oil prices.
- Official US government data on crude oil stockpiles is scheduled for release today, with analysts forecasting a decrease of approximately 1.1 million barrels, which could influence market sentiment and price direction.
| SMA (20) | Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling |
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Closing statement: Crude oil prices remained relatively stable around $78.00 per barrel amid ongoing uncertainty in Middle East ceasefire talks and mixed signals regarding global supply and demand dynamics. While concerns over rising US crude inventories weighed on prices, Saudi Arabia's decision to raise crude prices on strong demand outlooks provided some support. Market participants await official US government data on crude oil stockpiles for further clarity on supply-demand dynamics and potential price movements.
DAX
- The German trade surplus expanded from €21.4 billion to €22.3 billion in March, surpassing economists' expectations of €22.4 billion, driven by a rise in exports.
- German exports increased by 0.9% in March after a decline of 1.6% in February, while imports also advanced by 0.3% following a 3.0% surge in February.
- Corporate earnings announcements influenced market sentiment, with companies like Ferrari, Unicredit, Siemens Healthineers, Deutsche Post, Infineon Technologies, and Zalando SE releasing their earnings results.
- German industrial production declined in March, albeit less than expected, with a 0.4% decrease compared to the previous month, contrary to analysts' predictions of a 0.6% fall.
- Investors should also pay attention to upcoming earnings releases from Munich Re, Siemens Energy AG, Fresenius SE, and Continental AG, among other major German corporations.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising |
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Closing statement: The DAX index witnessed fluctuations driven by economic data releases and corporate earnings announcements. While the expansion of the German trade surplus and positive export figures provided some support, a decline in industrial production tempered market sentiment. Corporate earnings results from major German companies further influenced investor decisions, contributing to the overall market movement.