EURUSD
- On Thursday, EUR/USD entered a consolidative phase amid thin trading conditions while investors await the US nonfarm payrolls report.
- The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at the 1.0915 area.
- Most global markets will remain closed on Friday due to Good Friday, but the US bond market will open for a shortened session.
- From a technical perspective, EUR/USD remains bullish in the short-term, hovering around the 50% Fibonacci level traced back from January 2021 highs.
- Overall, traders should expect the market to move mostly sideways for now.
| SMA (1D) | Rising |  |
|
| RSI (1D) | Neutral | ||
| MACD (1D) | Neutral |
Closing statement: Given the thin trading conditions and anticipation for the US nonfarm payrolls report, EUR/USD remained in a consolidative phase on Thursday, with most global markets set to remain closed on Friday due to Good Friday. Traders should continue to monitor the technical indicators on the daily chart, as EUR/USD maintains a bullish short-term outlook while hovering around the key 50% Fibonacci level. However, the overall market is expected to move mostly sideways for the time being.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD saw bearish movement after BOE member Silvana Tenreyro hinted that the central bank may need to cut interest rates sooner than expected.
- The DXY, which tracks the dollar against six other currencies, traded slightly higher to 101.958, due to the Good Friday slowness.
- FX traders are anticipating a relatively quiet trade ahead of the NFP release and the long Easter weekend.
- Earlier data releases (JOLTS, ADP) suggested a loosening labour market, adding to the overall bearish sentiment surrounding GBP/USD.
| SMA (1D) | Rising | |
|
| RSI (1D) | Neutral | ||
| MACD (1D) | Neutral |
Closing statement: Overall, the GBP/USD currency pair may face bearish pressure due to concerns about a loosening labour market, a slight uptick in the dollar, and BOE member Silvana Tenreyro's statement about the possibility of cutting interest rates sooner than expected. FX traders should remain cautious and closely monitor the upcoming NFP data release and long Easter weekend.
GOLD
- St. Louis Fed President Bullard's comments on Thursday sparked a rally in bank stocks that boosted the broader market. He said that Q1 economic data is stronger than expected and that "financial stress seems to be abated, at least for now."
- Today's announcement of the NFP is expected to show a slowdown of almost 280,000 jobs from January's growth of 517,000, raising new worries about inflation in the United States.
- Inflation measured by the CPI hit 40-year highs in June 2022, expanding at an annual rate of 9.1%. Since then, it has slowed, growing at just 6% per year in February.
- A Fed retreat when it comes to rate hikes at this point could be fatal to the dollar, sending it beneath recent lows and thus helping the gold.
Closing statement: Given the positive economic data, gold may face downward pressure if the Fed decides to continue with their rate hikes. However, if the Fed retreats from raising rates, this could potentially be detrimental to the dollar and thus help push gold higher. Investors will be closely watching the Fed's next moves as the situation continues to unfold.
CRUDE OIL
- The bullish weekly report on U.S. supply-demand issued Wednesday did not lead to an increase in crude oil prices, indicating larger economic worries in the market.
- Saudi Arabia's production cut was aimed at short sellers, as the country aims to increase liquidity despite its dislike of futures trading's role in the oil market.
- From a technical standpoint, crude oil is still trading between the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci levels traced back from November 2022 highs.
- The market narrative in oil is currently dominated by the deeper OPEC+ output cut announced this week.
| SMA (1D) | Slightly Rising | |
| RSI (1D) | Slightly Rising | |
| MACD (1D) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: As crude oil continues to hover within a range of Fibonacci levels and the market waits to see the impact of Saudi Arabia's production cut and the OPEC+ output cut, there is a sense of uncertainty in the industry as larger economic concerns weigh on prices.
DAX
- The DAX index in Germany rose by 0.62%, while the CAC 40 in France climbed 0.12% and the FTSE 100 in the UK increased by 0.97%.
- German industrial production for February rose by 2.0%, exceeding expectations of 0.1%, while January's figure was adjusted to a 3.7% increase, up from 3.5%.
- Shares in Germany were higher after the close on Thursday, with gains in the Financial Services, Insurance, and Food & Beverages sectors leading the way.
- Tight trading ranges are expected in Europe due to the Good Friday holiday, with the US releasing the widely watched monthly NFP data.
| SMA (1D) | Slightly Rising | |
| RSI (1D) | Slightly Rising | |
| MACD (1D) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: Despite the holiday and the release of the NFP data in the US, European markets have remained buoyant with strong gains seen in the DAX, CAC 40, and FTSE 100 indices. Positive news in German industrial production has further boosted confidence in the market.