EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: The EUR/USD pair retreats from recent gains, trading around 1.0390 during Thursday’s European session. Renewed strength in the US Dollar and cautious sentiment ahead of key Eurozone data put pressure on the pair.
- ECB’s Cipollone Signals: ECB board member Piero Cipollone hinted at potential rate cuts, citing a declining inflation outlook. He also warned that US tariffs on China could lead Beijing to offload goods in Europe, which might negatively impact European growth and inflation prospects.
- US ISM Services PMI: On Wednesday, the US ISM Services PMI dropped to 52.8 in January from December’s 54.0 reading, fueling hopes of a more accommodative monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. The weaker data weighed on the Dollar temporarily, offering brief relief to the EUR/USD pair.
- Fed’s Jefferson: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reinforced expectations of a pause in rate adjustments, noting his preference to assess the long-term effects of US President Trump’s economic policies before moving forward. This cautious stance could influence future market dynamics.
- Eurozone Retail Sales: Later on Thursday, traders will monitor the release of Eurozone Retail Sales data. Expectations point to a 1.9% year-over-year increase in December, compared to a 1.2% rise in November. A better-than-expected result could offer some respite to the struggling Euro.
| SMA (20) | Falling |  | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising |  |
|
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: EUR/USD remains vulnerable to external risks, with upcoming Eurozone data and US economic developments likely to shape the pair’s near-term direction. A stronger Retail Sales print could provide temporary relief, but concerns about growth and ECB policy may limit the upside.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: After a three-day winning streak, GBP/USD trades around 1.2480 during Thursday’s European session. Traders turn cautious ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) crucial policy announcement.
- BoE Meeting: The BoE is widely expected to reduce its benchmark rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.5%, following a series of cuts totaling 50 bps in 2024. Markets are keenly focused on the central bank’s updated economic outlook and future guidance.
- Super Thursday: Besides the rate decision, Super Thursday will include the release of the meeting minutes, the Quarterly Inflation Report, and a press conference by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey. His comments will provide insight into the bank’s future rate path and assessment of the UK’s economic situation.
- Gilt Yields: UK government bond (Gilt) yields have surged to multi-year highs, raising concerns about fiscal policy and government spending. Analysts link the rise to movements in US Treasury yields following President Trump’s policy initiatives.
- UK GDP: The latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed zero GDP growth in Q3 2024, a downward revision from the initial 0.1% increase. The BoE expects flat GDP growth for Q4 2024 as well, cutting its previous 0.3% estimate from November.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: GBP/USD remains vulnerable to BoE policy outcomes and economic data. A dovish BoE stance could pressure the Pound further, especially if coupled with weak UK economic forecasts. Governor Bailey’s remarks will be crucial for near-term market direction.
XAUUSD
- XAU/USD Price: Gold trades steady just below its record high from Wednesday. However, the daily chart signals caution as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the overbought zone at 76.50, suggesting limited upside potential in the near term.
- Dollar Weakens: The US Dollar loses ground as markets digest President Trump’s temporary tariff pushback on Canada and Mexico. Receding concerns of a US-China trade war also reduce demand for the Dollar as a safe haven.
- Geopolitical Developments: Optimism around potential resolutions in the Israel-Hamas conflict and Israel-Saudi normalization talks further erodes the USD’s safe-haven appeal. Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu met to discuss strategies for reducing regional tensions, boosting overall market confidence.
- US NFP Data: Traders await Friday’s critical US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could provide cues on the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. This data will be closely watched ahead of next week’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, a key inflation gauge.
- US Data and Fedspeak: US weekly Jobless Claims and Preliminary Unit Labor Cost figures will also be monitored for short-term trading incentives. Fresh developments on Trump’s tariff plans could further influence gold prices and USD demand.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: Gold’s rally might pause in the short term as overbought technical indicators and upcoming US data present potential headwinds. However, continued geopolitical and trade uncertainties could sustain the metal’s longer-term bullish trend.
CRUDE OIL
- WTI Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) remains under pressure, trading around $71.30 during early European hours on Thursday. Weaker demand signals and rising US crude inventories are weighing on prices.
- US Crude Inventories: The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an unexpected increase in crude oil stockpiles, which rose by 8.664 million barrels for the week ending January 31. The sharp rise in inventories reflects declining demand and adds bearish pressure on oil prices.
- US-China Trade Tensions: China's finance ministry responded to the latest US tariffs with its own package of duties on key US products, including crude oil, agricultural equipment, and certain automobiles. The ongoing trade dispute continues to create uncertainty in the energy markets.
- Iran's Reaction: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian urged OPEC members to unite against potential US sanctions following President Trump’s announcement of resuming the "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran. This move could impact supply dynamics in the Middle East.
- OPEC+ Plans: Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak confirmed that OPEC+ will begin increasing oil output on April 1, following its pre-set plan despite Trump’s proposal to boost production sooner to lower prices.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Falling | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling | | |
Closing statement: WTI crude oil prices face downside risks due to rising inventories and ongoing US-China trade tensions. However, geopolitical risks tied to Iran and potential OPEC+ production adjustments could provide price support in the near term.
DAX
- DAX Price: Following Wednesday’s rally, the DAX is set to extend its recovery on Thursday, although further upside might be limited due to the persistent uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policy and upcoming key economic events.
- China’s Currency: China's efforts to stabilize the yuan have reduced fears of a potential currency devaluation. However, market analysts remain skeptical that China’s measured response to U.S. tariffs will lead to any significant change in U.S. trade policy.
- Geopolitical Risks: U.S. President Donald Trump’s unexpected comments on Gaza’s development added a layer of policy uncertainty, weighing on investor sentiment globally and contributing to cautious market behavior.
- U.S. Tech Sector: While overall market sentiment was positive in New York, the technology sector showed a mixed picture. Nvidia posted significant gains, but Alphabet experienced losses. Investors remain focused on large tech firms' investments in artificial intelligence, which continues to drive market attention.
- Earning Reports: In the German market, all eyes are on Siemens Healthineers and Qiagen, as both companies are set to release their quarterly earnings reports on Thursday. These results could provide fresh direction for the DAX.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: The DAX recovery remains fragile, with global policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks keeping investors cautious. Traders will closely monitor corporate earnings and upcoming economic data for further clarity on market direction.