Daily Analysis 06/02/2023

Daily Analysis 06/02/2023


EURUSD

On the last trading day of the week, the Euro Zone service sector PMI index for January was announced as 50.7, while the index in Germany, the largest economy in the region, pointed to a growth of 50.7. Contrary to the expectations for contraction, the Eurozone December producer price index increased by 1.1% and became 24.6% year-on-year. Non-farm employment in the US for January was 517,000, above expectations. While the highest employment growth was recorded in the country since July 2022, average hourly earnings increased in line with expectations. While pricing continues at the level of 102.00 in the dollar index, a sharp pullback was recorded in the parity.

Technical Analysis

Support & Resistance Level
Resistance 3 1,1039
Resistance 2 1,0989
Resistance 1 1,0891
Support 1 1,0743
Support 2 1,0694
Support 3 1,0596

Daily Pivot Levels

1.1006
1.0965
1.0939
1.0914
1.0873
1.0832
1.0906

GBPUSD

The UK's GDP data to be released on Friday are expected to show that the economy narrowly escaped recession in the fourth quarter. Last week, the Bank of England (BoE) said the UK is poised to enter recession this year, but that it will be "much more superficial" than previously feared, mostly due to lower energy prices and weaker interest rate expectations from the market. The BoE raised interest rates for the tenth meeting in a row last Thursday, but said the trend in the fight against inflation was changing.

Technical Analysis

Support & Resistance Level
Resistance 3 1.2413
Resistance 2 1.2339
Resistance 1 1.2195
Support 1 1.1977
Support 2 1.1903
Support 3 1.1759

Daily Pivot Levels

1.2555
1.2478
1.2438
1.2397
1.2320
1.2243
1.22203

XAUUSD

After a busy week in global markets, gold prices started the new week weakly. Last week, after the Fed's rate decision and subsequent January US jobs data, the appreciation of the dollar put pressure on commodities. There was a pullback in gold prices towards the $1860 level on Friday. Today, the impact of data can last, albeit limited. This morning the dollar index is trading at 103.00. Secondary level data is expected to be released today. Speeches by Fed officials during the week, US data, may have an impact on gold prices.

Technical Analysis

Support & Resistance Level
Resistance 3 1959
Resistance 2 1939
Resistance 1 1902
Support 1 1845
Support 2 1824
Support 3 1788

Daily Pivot Levels

1,973.14
1,957.83
1,947.87
1,937.92
1,922.61
1,907.30
1,897.34

BRENT OIL

Oil prices started the new day with light buyers. The appreciation of the dollar after the US jobs data released on Friday put pressure on commodities. In his statement, Saudi Arabian Energy Minister stated that the strategy of the OPEC+ group is correct and they will act cautiously for a while. Goldman Sachs mentions that there may be problems on the production side in 2024. The G7 countries and the European Union started their new sanctions on Russian oil as of February 05. It is said that with the opening of China, oil production expectations for this year will increase. These expectations seem to support prices upwards from time to time. Secondary level data can be tracked for today.

Technical Analysis

Support & Resistance Level
Resistance 3 87,27
Resistance 2 85,73
Resistance 1 82,71
Support 1 78,15
Support 2 76,61
Support 3 73,59

Daily Pivot Levels

88.75
87.90
87.21
86.52
85.66
84.81
84.12

S&P500

According to the pricing in the money markets, while the Fed's 25 basis points interest rate hike in March is considered certain, the probability of a 25 basis point hike in May has risen to 63 percent. Analysts noted that the increasing uncertainties in the markets raised questions about the future of monetary policy and stated that the verbal guidance of the Fed officials is important for the direction of the markets and that volatility may increase. The S&P 500 closed the session up 1.04% at 4.136. As of this morning, the outlook for the S&P 500 futures contract is at 4.079.

Technical Analysis

Support & Resistance Level
Resistance 3 4,232
Resistance 2 4,207
Resistance 1 4,170
Support 1 4,109
Support 2 4,083
Support 3 4,047

Daily Pivot Levels

4,142.33
4,109.67
4,092.58
4,075.50
4,042.83
4,010.17
3,993.08

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