EURUSD
- Current Trading: EUR/USD continues its winning streak for the seventh successive day, trading around 1.0820 during European hours on Friday.
- Technical Analysis: The daily chart indicates a bullish bias, with the pair oscillating within an ascending channel.
- EU Retail Sales: Expected to rebound to 0.2% MoM in May compared to the previous -0.5% contraction. These figures will be released early Friday.
- US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP): Anticipated to show a significant amount of chart churn alongside European Retail Sales. The NFP figures are expected to decrease to 190K in June from the previous month’s 272K.
- Unemployment rate: June’s US Unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.0% MoM.
| SMA (20) | Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising |
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Closing statement: The EUR/USD pair continues its positive momentum, supported by technical indicators suggesting a bullish bias. Upcoming Pan-EU Retail Sales and US Nonfarm Payrolls data will be critical in determining the pair's near-term direction. A rebound in European Retail Sales and a slight decline in US NFP figures are anticipated, with the US unemployment rate remaining stable. Traders will closely monitor these economic releases to gauge future movements and potential trading opportunities for the EUR/USD pair.
GBPUSD
- Current Trading: GBP/USD keeps its range above 1.2770 in the early European session on Friday.
- UK Election: The Pound Sterling stays unperturbed by the landslide Labour Party victory in the UK general election.
- Potential Impact: A Labour landslide could be advantageous for the Pound Sterling, as a substantial majority would grant Labour a strong mandate for governance, potentially leading to greater political stability.
- ADP Employment Report: Showed that US private businesses added 150,000 workers to their payrolls in June, the lowest increase in five months.
- Upcoming US Employment Reports: The key highlight on Friday will be the release of US employment reports, which are expected to show a slowdown in employment growth in June.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising |
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Closing statement: The GBP/USD pair remains stable above 1.2770, with the Pound Sterling showing resilience following the Labour Party's decisive victory in the UK general election. The potential for increased political stability under Labour's governance could be positive for the Pound. On the US side, the ADP Employment Report indicated a slower pace of job growth in June, and market participants will closely watch the upcoming US employment reports for further insights into the labour market's health. These data releases are likely to influence the pair's direction in the near term.
GOLD
- Current Trading: Gold price is consolidating near two-week highs of $2,365 reached on Wednesday, as the US Dollar continues to lick its wounds.
- Holiday Impact: With the Independence Day holiday in the US on Thursday, gold price held higher ground near two-week highs while within a confined range due to thin liquidity conditions.
- Technical Outlook: The short-term technical outlook for gold price remains more or less the same, with risks appearing to the north. Gold broke this week’s consolidation to the upside after closing Wednesday above the key 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), then at $2,338.
- US Labor Data: The number of Americans filing first-time unemployment claims rose by 4,000 last week to 238,000, according to Labor Department data released Wednesday.
- Upcoming Events: Gold price braces for the return of US traders from the July 4 holiday and the all-important Nonfarm Payrolls data for fresh impulse.
Closing statement: The Gold price is maintaining a consolidation pattern near its recent two-week highs of $2,365, buoyed by a weaker US Dollar. The thin liquidity conditions due to the Independence Day holiday in the US contributed to a confined trading range. Technically, gold appears to be on a bullish trajectory, having broken its recent consolidation and closed above the 50-day SMA. The recent uptick in US unemployment claims adds to the anticipation around the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls data, which is expected to provide fresh impetus for the gold market as US traders return from the holiday.
CRUDE OIL
- Current Trading: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude oil prices tick lower during the European session on Friday, appearing to have snapped a two-day winning streak, albeit without substantial follow-through selling.
- OPEC Production: Recent data revealed that members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) increased production in June for a second consecutive month. This suggests a less tight oil market in the coming months, which is restraining bullish sentiment and weighing on oil prices.
- Demand Optimism: Optimism over increased fuel demand in the US during the travel-heavy summer season. Speculations about OPEC+ production cuts in the third quarter are expected to lend support to crude oil prices.
- Weekly Performance: Despite the current dip, crude oil remains on track to register gains for the fourth successive week.
- Upcoming Events: Market participants are looking forward to the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for fresh impetus.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: WTI crude oil prices are experiencing a minor dip in the European session on Friday, breaking a two-day winning streak but lacking strong selling pressure. The increase in OPEC production for the second consecutive month hints at a potentially looser oil market ahead, dampening bullish bets. However, the anticipated surge in US fuel demand during the summer and potential OPEC+ production cuts in Q3 provide a supportive backdrop for oil prices. As crude oil remains on track for its fourth consecutive weekly gain, attention now shifts to the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which is expected to provide fresh market direction.
DAX
- German Factory Orders: German factory orders declined by 1.6% in May, following a 0.6% decrease in April. Although the manufacturing sector is not an immediate concern for the European Central Bank (ECB), the latest figures from Germany may raise alarms.
- French Election Impact: Easing fears of a far-right absolute majority in France boosted demand for bank stocks. A far-right majority could potentially destabilize the Euro area economy and the EU project.
- Industrial Output: Germany's industrial sector contraction deepened in May, with industrial output dropping by 2.5% month-over-month, according to data published by Destatis on Friday.
- Eurozone Retail Sales: A rebound in Eurozone retail sales could challenge expectations of ECB rate cuts. Economists forecast a 0.2% increase in May retail sales, following a 0.5% decline in April.
- US Labor Market Data: While Euro area economic data warrant investor attention, the US labor market data, particularly the crucial US Jobs Report, will be pivotal for the DAX on Friday.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising |
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Closing statement: The DAX is navigating mixed signals as German factory orders and industrial output show deeper contractions, raising concerns despite being outside the immediate focus of the ECB. Easing fears of a far-right majority in France have buoyed bank stocks, mitigating some risks to Euro area stability. The anticipated rebound in Eurozone retail sales might test current ECB rate cut expectations. Investors are also closely watching US labour market data, especially the upcoming US Jobs Report, which could have a significant impact on the DAX.