EURUSD
- EUR/USD remained largely unchanged at 1.0910, despite a decline in German exports in May, indicating a challenging trading environment for Europe's manufacturing powerhouse.
- The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue its series of interest rate increases, with another hike likely later in the month. This monetary policy stance may contribute to the stability of the euro.
- The U.S. dollar stabilized in early European trading on Tuesday, influenced by the impact of the holiday on market activity.
- Due to the Independence Day holiday in the United States, the dollar is anticipated to trade within tight ranges on Tuesday. The week concludes with key employment data, which could have an impact on the next move by the Federal Reserve.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |  | ||
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: EUR/USD maintained stability at 1.0910, despite challenges faced by German exports. The European Central Bank is expected to continue its interest rate hike trajectory, supporting the euro's stability. The U.S. dollar remained steady in early European hours due to the holiday, and further trading was influenced by the anticipation of important employment data that could shape the Federal Reserve's future actions.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD experienced a 0.1% increase, reaching 1.2705. The Bank of England is expected to continue raising interest rates, supported by the country's high inflation rate of 8.7% in May, which is the highest among major advanced economies.
- The British pound is likely to have limited movement on the US holiday (Independence Day), with no significant economic data expected to drive market activity.
- The Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against six other currencies, showed a slight uptick, trading at 103.030.
- The US dollar weakened on Monday due to disappointing manufacturing data, as the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.0 in June from 46.9 in May. This reading represents the lowest level since May 2020.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Neutral | |||
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: GBP/USD saw a slight increase, reaching 1.2705, as the Bank of England is anticipated to continue its interest rate hikes driven by the country's high inflation rate. The British pound is expected to have limited movement during the US holiday, with no major economic data on the horizon. The US dollar experienced weakness following disappointing manufacturing data, as reflected by the lower PMI reading.
GOLD
- Gold prices stabilized above key support levels on Tuesday but remained under pressure as market participants awaited further insights on monetary policy from the Federal Reserve later in the week.
- From a technical perspective, gold recently rebounded from the 61.8% Fibonacci level and continued its upward trajectory towards the 50% level, which is traced back from the lows in February 2023.
- Weaker-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data heightened concerns about slowing economic growth and prompted some investors to allocate funds into gold as a safe haven.
- The ISM survey suggested an economy in recession, yet the Federal Reserve may still proceed with restarting its tightening cycle later in the month if the official employment report on Friday indicates a healthy labor market, considering inflation remains above the target.
Closing statement: Gold prices found stability above key support levels, but pressure persisted as the market awaited further guidance on monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Technically, gold showed a rebound from the 61.8% Fibonacci level and continued its upward movement towards the 50% level. Weaker U.S. manufacturing data raised concerns about economic growth, prompting some investors to turn to gold. The Federal Reserve's decision on restarting the tightening cycle may be influenced by the upcoming employment report, as it assesses the health of the labour market and considers inflation levels.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude oil prices experienced an increase on Tuesday, as the market assessed supply cuts planned for August by major exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia. However, these gains were set against the backdrop of an uncertain global economic outlook.
- Saudi Arabia announced an extension of its voluntary production cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) through August, while Russia stated it would reduce oil exports by 500,000 bpd in the same month.
- The influence of fundamental factors on crude oil prices is not as significant as expected, with the market primarily focused on the uncertain macroeconomic outlook.
- Anticipated data indicated a potential decrease of approximately 1.8 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories for the week ending June 30, marking the third consecutive week of declines. However, publication of industry data and official data was delayed by a day due to the U.S. holiday.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling | |
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| RSI (14) | Neutral | ||
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising |
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Closing statement: Crude oil prices rose as markets considered supply cuts announced by Saudi Arabia and Russia for August. However, the overall market sentiment remained cautious due to the uncertain global economic outlook. Fundamental factors had less influence on price direction, with macroeconomic conditions taking the forefront. Anticipated declines in U.S. crude inventories added to the upward pressure on prices.
DAX
- European stock markets saw minimal changes on Tuesday as investors sought guidance amid a light data calendar and the U.S. holiday.
- The DAX index in Germany experienced a slight decline, while the CAC 40 in France rose 0.2%, and the FTSE 100 in the U.K. remained mostly unchanged.
- With limited economic data released on Tuesday and U.S. markets closed for Independence Day, there were fewer cues to guide market sentiment.
- An exception to the light data calendar was the release of German export and import numbers for May, which indicated a 0.1% decrease in exports for the month. This highlights the challenging trading environment faced by Europe's manufacturing powerhouse.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |
|
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising |
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Closing statement: European stock markets, including the DAX40 in Germany, showed little movement as investors sought direction in the absence of significant data and with U.S. markets closed for the holiday. The release of German export and import numbers for May revealed a slight decline in exports, underscoring the difficulties faced by Europe's manufacturing powerhouse.