EURUSD
- EUR/USD continues its upward trajectory for the third consecutive day, reaching around 1.0730 during the Asian session on Friday, supported by positive market sentiment.
- The weekly US Initial Jobless Claims remained at a low level, indicating a stable labor market, and prompting the Federal Reserve to delay potential rate cuts, which contributed to the Euro's strength against the US Dollar.
- US Nonfarm Productivity increased by 0.3% in the first quarter, slightly below the expected rise of 0.8%, suggesting moderate growth in productivity but not meeting market expectations.
- ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane reiterated the central bank's commitment to a data dependent approach, indicating that policy decisions will be guided by economic indicators and developments.
- Investors are focused on the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls data for April, with expectations of a reading of 243K, compared to the previous reading of 303K, which could impact market sentiment and the EUR/USD exchange rate.
| SMA (20) | Slighlty Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: EUR/USD maintained its upward trend for the third consecutive day, supported by stable US labour market data and a data-dependent approach from the ECB. However, US Nonfarm Productivity fell short of expectations, adding some pressure on the US Dollar. All eyes are now on the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls data for April, which could influence market sentiment and the direction of EUR/USD trading.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD trades higher around 1.2540 on Friday, benefiting from a weaker US Dollar.
- Technically, GBP/USD shows a neutral to downward bias, as buyers struggle to surpass the significant resistance level at the 200-day moving average around 1.2550.
- The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to announce its interest rate decision next week, with forecasts anticipating the central bank to maintain rates at 5.25% for the sixth consecutive time.
- Market participants are closely monitoring the inflation outlook and signals regarding potential interest rate cuts by the BoE.
- Investors are awaiting the release of US April Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday, which could impact the USD's performance and provide momentum for the GBP/USD pair, especially if the NFP data comes in weaker than expected.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: GBP/USD traded higher on Friday, buoyed by a weakened US Dollar, although facing resistance near the 200-day moving average. With the upcoming Bank of England interest rate decision and US Nonfarm Payrolls data release, market participants remain attentive to developments that could influence the GBP/USD pair's direction in the near term.
GOLD
- Gold price struggles for direction amid mixed fundamental signals, leading to a lack of significant traction in trading.
- Technically, the price action suggests a consolidation phase, with the formation of a rectangle pattern on short-term charts.
- Despite a generally hawkish stance, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish comments during the press conference alleviated some concerns, particularly regarding inflation.
- Traders remain cautious and opt to await the US monthly employment details before taking significant positions in gold, as they seek clarity on the direction of the precious metal.
- The Unemployment Rate is anticipated to remain steady at 3.8% during the reported month, while Average Hourly Earnings probably eased to the 4.0% YoY rate from 4.1% in March.
Closing statement: Gold price struggled for direction amid mixed fundamental signals, leading to a lack of significant traction in trading. While technical indicators suggest a consolidation phase, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish comments during the press conference alleviated concerns, particularly regarding inflation. Market participants await key US economic data releases for insights into the Fed's future rate-cut path before positioning for the next leg of a directional move in gold.
CRUDE OIL
- WTI crude oil trades around $79.10 on Friday, rebounding modestly from a seven- week low, indicating some resilience in the market.
- The unexpected build in U.S. inventories and increased production suggested that oil markets were not as tight as previously anticipated, contributing to downward pressure on prices. Easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, coupled with prospects of a ceasefire in Gaza, lead to subdued trading in crude oil prices as concerns about supply disruptions wane.
- Market participants remain vigilant regarding geopolitical developments, as any escalation could renew fears of oil supply disruptions in the region and bolster crude oil prices.
- Investors are awaiting the release of key U.S. nonfarm payrolls data later in the day, which is expected to influence market sentiment and provide insights into the outlook for interest rates.
DAX
- Investors responded to the overnight FOMC press conference on Thursday (May 2) where Fed Chair Powell highlighted the lack of progress in achieving the inflation target, affecting market sentiment.
- Despite better-than-expected manufacturing sector PMI numbers for Germany and the Eurozone, buyer demand for DAX-listed stocks remained subdued. The German HCOB Manufacturing PMI increased slightly, while the Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI slipped marginally.
- Unemployment figures for the Eurozone on Friday (May 3) will be closely watched by investors, with economists expecting the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 6.5%.
- Corporate earnings reports, including those from Daimler Truck Holding, Credit Agricole, and Societe Generale, will be important for market sentiment and could influence DAX performance.
- Later on Friday, the US Jobs Report and ISM Services PMI will be released, potentially impacting market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's rate path.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Neutral |
Closing statement: Investors reacted to the overnight FOMC press conference, where Fed Chair Powell expressed concerns about the lack of progress in achieving the inflation target, affecting market sentiment. Despite better-than-expected manufacturing sector PMI numbers for Germany and the Eurozone, buyer demand for DAX-listed stocks remained subdued. Attention now turns to unemployment figures for the Eurozone and corporate earnings reports, along with the release of the US Jobs Report and ISM Services PMI, which could influence market sentiment and expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's rate path.