EURUSD
- EUR/USD experienced a 0.1% increase, reaching a one-week high of 1.0773. This rise followed comments from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, who hinted at future interest rate hikes despite weaker-than-expected eurozone inflation data.
- French industrial production in April surpassed expectations, growing by 0.8% compared to the anticipated 0.3% expansion. This improvement, along with a rebound from the previous month's decline, signals resilience in the second largest economy in the eurozone and is likely to be taken into consideration by the ECB.
- Spain's unemployment figures for March 2023 demonstrated positive progress, with a decrease of 49,260 individuals registering as jobless, marking the lowest unemployment level for a month of May since 2008.
- The U.S. dollar weakened during early European trading on Friday, extending the losses observed in the previous session. This decline followed the approval of the debt ceiling bill by the U.S. Congress, while traders eagerly awaited the release of the highly anticipated monthly payrolls data.
- Market attention is focused on the forthcoming monthly payrolls release, which is expected to have a significant impact on market sentiment and trading dynamics.
| SMA (20) | Falling |  |
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| RSI (14) | Neutral | |||
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slighty Rising |
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Closing statement: The euro gained against the U.S. dollar, reaching a one-week high, as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's comments on future interest rate hikes outweighed the weaker-than-expected eurozone inflation figures. Positive French industrial production data and a decline in Spain's unemployment rate further supported the euro's strength. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar continued its decline following the approval of the debt ceiling bill, with market participants eagerly awaiting the release of the monthly payrolls report, which is likely to influence market sentiment.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD rose by 0.1% to 1.2544, marking the first positive week after three weeks of losses.
- The 1.2545 resistance zone on the daily chart has been a significant area where bears have defended persistently.
- The US Dollar Index traded 0.1% lower at 103.433, near a one-week low, following a 0.6% drop on Thursday. It is on track for a 0.7% decline this week, its worst performance since mid-January.
- Market attention now shifts to the release of the official monthly U.S. jobs report, expected to show an addition of 180,000 jobs in May.
- The jobs report will provide insights into the performance of the largest economy in the world.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling | |
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| RSI (14) | Slighty Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slighty Rising |
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Closing statement: GBP/USD experienced a slight increase, marking its first positive week after a series of losses. The resistance zone around 1.2545 has been a significant area of defence for bears. The US Dollar Index continued its decline, approaching a one-week low, following a sharp drop on Thursday, and is heading for its worst week since mid-January. Traders are eagerly awaiting the release of the official U.S. jobs report, which will shed light on the employment situation in the world's largest economy.
GOLD
- Gold and copper prices declined in Asian trade on Friday as market participants awaited key nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data for insights into the U.S. economy. However, both metals showed a strong recovery from recent lows earlier in the week.
- The rise in gold prices was driven by increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged during its June meeting. Weak labour and manufacturing data further supported this outlook.
- The NFP report, scheduled for release today, is one of the last data points before the Fed's June meeting and could influence the central bank's decision to pause its 14-month rate-hiking campaign.
- In recent days, the likelihood of a rate pause has increased following statements from Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Fed Governor Philip Jefferson expressing support for such a move.
- Market participants will closely analyse the NFP data to gauge the health of the U.S. labour market and its potential impact on the Fed's monetary policy decisions.
Closing statement: Gold and copper prices experienced a decline in Asian trade as market participants awaited the NFP data, seeking further insights into the U.S. economy. The possibility of the Federal Reserve pausing its rate hikes gained traction, supported by weak labour and manufacturing data. The upcoming NFP report will play a crucial role in shaping the central bank's decision-making process.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude oil prices experienced an increase on Friday, driven by optimistic sentiment following the passage of a U.S. debt ceiling bill in Washington. Market participants are now assessing the potential impact of price-supportive OPEC+ production cuts expected to be discussed over the weekend.
- The release of U.S. crude stock data from the Energy Information Administration on Thursday, revealing a significant increase in crude imports last week, further contributed to positive market sentiment.
- Investor focus has shifted to the upcoming June 4 meeting of OPEC+ countries, including Russia, where ministers will convene to decide whether to implement additional output cuts to support government revenues.
- There are diverging views regarding the possibility of output cuts. Some reports from Reuters and analysts at banks like HSBC and Goldman Sachs suggest that further reductions are unlikely, and the bloc may adopt a cautious and observant approach instead.
- However, other market observers point to the potential for OPEC+ to implement cuts, citing weakened manufacturing data from China and the U.S. as factors influencing the decision.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Slighty Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Neutral |
Closing statement: Crude oil prices saw an increase as bullish sentiment prevailed after the U.S. debt ceiling bill's passage, while market attention turned to the OPEC+ meeting to assess potential output cuts. Mixed signals exist regarding the likelihood of further reductions, with some sources suggesting caution and others highlighting factors like weakened manufacturing data. The outcome of the meeting will provide clarity on the future direction of oil production.
DAX
- European stock markets showed positive momentum on Friday following the successful passage of the U.S. debt ceiling bill in Congress. Additionally, strong French industrial production data further contributed to market optimism.
- The DAX index in Germany recorded a 0.71% increase, the CAC 40 in France rose by 1.01%, and the FTSE 100 in the U.K. experienced a 0.56% rise.
- From a technical perspective, the daily chart indicates a significant resistance level that is currently being tested. If this resistance is surpassed, the index may potentially move toward historical highs.
- Eurozone inflation eased more than expected last month, as revealed by Thursday's data, which fuels the ongoing discussion on the extent to which the region's central bank will continue tightening its monetary policy. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated that inflation is too high and is expected to persist for an extended period.
- Lagarde expressed these views during a speech in Germany, emphasizing the need for continued vigilance in addressing inflationary pressures.
| SMA (20) | Neutral | ||
| RSI (14) | Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slighty Rising |
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Closing statement: European stock markets displayed positive performance as the U.S. debt ceiling bill progressed and strong French industrial production data emerged. The DAX, CAC 40, and FTSE 100 indices all recorded gains. Technical analysis suggests a potential breakthrough of a major resistance level, which could drive the index toward historical highs. Meanwhile, the eurozone's easing inflation and Christine Lagarde's remarks on the persistent nature of inflation contribute to the ongoing discussion surrounding the region's monetary policy tightening.