EURUSD
- EUR/USD is experiencing selling pressure, hovering near a weekly low below 1.0750 during Asian trading on Tuesday.
- Despite hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials, such as Austrian Central Bank Governor Robert Holzmann suggesting the possibility of rate cuts before the US Fed, the Euro failed to gain traction.
- In terms of data, the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for March fell below expectations at 51.9, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly surged to 50.3 after 16 consecutive months of contraction.
- Germany is set to release the preliminary estimate of the March Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) on Tuesday, with expectations at 2.4% year-on-year.
- Meanwhile, the US will unveil February Factory Orders and JOLTS Job Openings, accompanied by statements from several Fed officials during the American afternoon.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling |
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Closing statement: EUR/USD remains subdued amidst selling pressure despite hawkish ECB comments, with focus shifting to key data releases including the US manufacturing PMI and Germany's HICP estimate. The unexpected surge in the US ISM Manufacturing PMI contrasts with weaker S&P Global Manufacturing PMI figures, adding to market uncertainty. As investors await further developments and statements from Fed officials, EUR/USD may see continued volatility in the coming sessions.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD is trading defensively around 1.2545 in the Asian session on Tuesday, facing downward pressure.
- US data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) indicated that business activity expanded in March, signaling resilience in the economy.
- Following the ISM data release, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June decreased from approximately 60% to 56.9% according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated in a recent speech at the San Francisco Fed that the central bank is not in a hurry to implement rate cuts.
- On Tuesday, the UK economic calendar includes the release of Housing Prices, BoE Consumer Credit data, and the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling |
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Closing statement: GBP/USD is under pressure amid cautious trading around 1.2545, influenced by US economic data showing expansion in business activity, leading to reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks indicating a lack of urgency for rate cuts have also impacted market sentiment. With key UK economic data releases ahead, including Housing Prices and manufacturing PMI figures, GBP/USD may experience further volatility as traders await additional insights into the economic landscape.
GOLD
- Gold price corrected after hitting a fresh record high of $2,266 on Monday, following a predicted Bull Flag target of $2,250.
- The next focus for gold buyers is the psychological level of $2,300, indicating continued bullish sentiment in the market.
- Concerns over China's property market and potential forex market intervention in Japan have kept investors cautious, supporting the US Dollar despite some reversal in US Treasury bond yields.
- The US Dollar strengthened alongside US Treasury bond yields after reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in June, driven by robust US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Price Paid data.
- Attention now turns to various Fed officials scheduled to speak later on Tuesday, as market participants seek fresh insights into the Fed's interest rate outlook following recent comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasizing the strength of the economy and a lack of urgency for rate cuts.
Closing statement: XAU/USD experienced a correction from its recent record high, reaching $2,266, after hitting the predicted Bull Flag target of $2,250. Despite concerns over China's property market and potential forex market intervention in Japan, the US Dollar remained supported by robust US economic data. With attention shifting to upcoming remarks from Fed officials, investors are keen to gauge the Fed's stance on interest rates following recent comments indicating confidence in the strength of the US economy and a cautious approach to rate cuts.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude oil prices are climbing following strong manufacturing data from the US and China in March, which surpassed market expectations, indicating potential growth in oil demand.
- A Reuters survey showing a decrease in oil output from OPEC countries in March is providing further upward momentum to Crude oil prices.
- Iraq and Nigeria have joined other OPEC members in reducing oil exports, supporting the ongoing efforts to curb supply in line with the broader OPEC+ agreement.
- Market attention is focused on the upcoming OPEC+ joint ministerial meeting scheduled for Wednesday, where discussions will center around market fundamentals and adherence to production targets, with expectations leaning towards the continuation of current output policies.
- The US gasoline market may experience price increases due to tightening global fuel supplies following Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, adding to the bullish sentiment in the Crude oil market.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: Crude oil prices are on the rise driven by strong manufacturing data from the US and China, signalling potential growth in oil demand. Additionally, a decrease in oil output from OPEC countries and efforts to reduce exports by Iraq and Nigeria are further supporting the upward momentum. As market participants await the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting and monitor developments in the US gasoline market, bullish sentiment prevails in the Crude oil market.
DAX
- German retail sales experienced a significant decline of 1.9% month-on-month in February, contrasting with economists' expectations of a 0.3% increase, signaling weakness in consumer spending.
- Despite the downturn in retail sales, employment figures offered a more optimistic view of the economy, with year-over-year employment rising by 0.4% in February and a month-on-month increase of 14,000 jobs.
- Investors will closely monitor the finalized German Manufacturing PMI and preliminary inflation figures on Tuesday, with inflation data expected to have a more significant impact on the DAX index. Economists anticipate a decrease in the annual inflation rate from 2.5% to 2.2% in March.
- Market sentiment regarding a potential ECB interest rate cut in May could influence buyer demand for DAX-listed stocks, adding to the market's volatility.
- Speeches by FOMC members John Williams, Loretta Mester, and Michelle Bowman will also be closely watched, as their views on the timing of a Fed rate cut could affect investor appetite for DAX-listed stocks.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: The DAX index faces mixed signals as weak German retail sales contrast with positive employment figures, highlighting uncertainties in consumer spending. Investor focus shifts to key economic data releases, including inflation figures and the finalized German Manufacturing PMI, alongside ECB commentary on potential interest rate cuts. Additionally, speeches by FOMC members could impact investor sentiment, adding to market volatility for DAX-listed stocks.