EURUSD
- The Euro Area economy expanded by 0.3% in Q2, surpassing the market forecast of 0.2%, according to the latest Eurostat data.
- The Euro Area economy expanded by 0.3% in Q2, surpassing the market forecast of 0.2%, according to the latest Eurostat data.
- Despite the economic data, the Euro remained unmoved, and with the holiday season in full flow, price action is expected to be limited in the coming days.
- The EUR/USD rebounded above 1.1000 after touching a low of 1.0944 on Friday. The pair's direction is likely to be influenced by the performance of the US dollar in the days ahead.
- The euro may face fluctuations depending on economic indicators and the holiday season's impact on market activities. Additionally, inflation levels and global economic trends will play a significant role in determining the EUR/USD pair's movement.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling |
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Closing statement: The Euro Area experienced economic expansion in Q2, outperforming market expectations. However, core inflation in the region remained at elevated levels. The Euro remained stable after the recent economic data release, but with the holiday season underway, market activity might be subdued. The EUR/USD pair has shown resilience, rebounding from its recent low, and its trajectory is anticipated to be influenced by the performance of the US dollar and global economic conditions in the coming days. Market participants continue to keep a close eye on indicators to assess the currency pair's potential movement in the near term.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD is currently trading at $1.2827, experiencing a slight decline of 0.05% for the day. However, it has shown a gain of 1.1% during July and is facing resistance around the 200-week moving average.
- The likelihood of a less substantial interest rate hike at the Bank of England's meeting on Thursday is increasing, as UK price pressures appear to be moderating from previously elevated levels.
- Despite a downside surprise in the UK June CPI, inflation remains well above the BOE's comfort range, warranting caution in declaring victory over inflation moderation.
- Market sentiment is evenly divided between expecting a 25-basis-point and a 50-basis-point rate increase, making the Bank of England's forward guidance pivotal in shaping GBP/USD's future movement.
- The Bank of England's decision on interest rates and subsequent communication will significantly influence the direction of GBP/USD in the near future.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Neutral | ||||
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling |
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Closing statement: GBP/USD has seen positive gains in July, but its progress is currently hindered by resistance around the 200-week moving average. With UK price pressures showing signs of moderation, there is increasing speculation of a smaller interest rate hike at the upcoming Bank of England meeting. However, persistent inflation concerns require careful consideration. Investors will closely watch the central bank's forward guidance as it plays a decisive role in determining the future path of GBP/USD.
GOLD
- Gold prices experienced a slight decline on Tuesday, with futures trading largely ahead of spot rates, while copper prices found support from expectations of additional stimulus measures in China.
- A rebound in the dollar contributed to the losses in gold, driven by tightening U.S. credit conditions amid high interest rates.
- Market attention is now directed towards the release of key nonfarm payrolls data for July, scheduled for this Friday. Positive indications of continued strength in the jobs market may exert downward pressure on gold prices, as it would provide the Federal Reserve with further justification to continue raising interest rates.
- Despite rising rates, the U.S. economy has shown resilience. However, growth is anticipated to slow in the second half of the year, potentially bolstering safe-haven demand for gold.
- Investors are closely monitoring economic data releases and developments in the global economy to gauge the direction of gold prices, given its sensitivity to interest rate decisions and market uncertainties.
Closing statement: Gold prices encountered a minor setback due to the dollar's recovery and tightening U.S. credit conditions. The upcoming release of nonfarm payrolls data for July holds significant implications for gold, as a strong job market may prompt the Federal Reserve to continue its interest rate hike trajectory. Amid expectations of a slowing economy in the latter part of the year, demand for gold as a safe-haven asset may increase, attracting investors seeking refuge amidst uncertainties.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude oil prices showed little change on Tuesday, maintaining levels close to a three-month high achieved on Monday. The market observed signs of tightening global supply as producers implemented output cuts and strong demand persisted in the United States, the largest fuel consumer worldwide.
- While oil markets have displayed strong bullish factors, there is a potential risk of correction as they may have been overbought in the past month.
- Chinese authorities issued additional policy guidelines on Monday to stimulate the economy and boost domestic consumption, in response to a decline in manufacturing activity for the fourth consecutive month in July.
- The upcoming OPEC meeting, scheduled for this Friday, is anticipated to play a pivotal role in shaping the market outlook. Market participants expect Saudi Arabia's voluntary supply cuts to be extended for another month, influencing global supply dynamics.
- Market participants are closely monitoring developments in oil production, demand, and global economic conditions, as any significant changes in these areas may act as catalysts for oil price movements.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Neutral | |||
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: Crude oil prices remained steady, maintaining near three-month highs, amid indications of tightening global supply and robust demand from the United States. While bullish factors have supported prices, the risk of a potential correction persists. Investors are attentive to the Chinese government's efforts to boost its economy and domestic consumption. The upcoming OPEC meeting holds importance, with expectations for Saudi Arabia's voluntary supply cuts to be extended, influencing the overall supply dynamics. Market participants continue to monitor global economic conditions and oil market fundamentals for further price direction.
DAX
- European stock markets are anticipated to open in a muted fashion on Tuesday as investors await key corporate results and manufacturing activity data for the region.
- The aggressive tightening of monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB) aimed at curbing inflation has influenced economic growth in the region.
- The DAX index achieved a new record closing high after a period of consolidation, driven by the ECB's dovish messaging and data dependence.
- The DAX index displayed a more bullish outlook after recovering from the lows of June. It formed a series of higher highs and higher lows while reaching a new all-time high.
- Second quarter GDP in Germany stagnated, and business sentiment declined further in July. Additionally, manufacturing activity data continued to contract, falling to levels below 40.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising |
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Closing statement: The European stock markets, including the DAX, are expected to have a subdued opening as investors await significant corporate results and manufacturing activity data. The aggressive tightening of the European Central Bank's monetary policy to control inflation has had an impact on the region's economic growth. However, despite challenges, the DAX index reached a new record closing high, showcasing a more bullish sentiment. Notably, German economic indicators, such as Q2 GDP and manufacturing activity, have displayed signs of weakness, contributing to market sentiment. Investors continue to closely monitor the economic landscape and corporate performance for potential market movements in the days ahead.