EURUSD
- European stock markets traded higher Tuesday
- Main economic focus on release of euro zone’s February retail sales, expected to have fallen 0.8% on the month, an annual drop of 3.5%
- Nonfarm payrolls increased by 236,000 jobs last month, pushing unemployment rate down to 3.5%
- The European Central Bank is widely expected to continue hiking interest rates when it meets in May, as it aims to combat inflation levels that are still elevated.
- EUR/USD still maintains a bullish short-term outlook, coming back to test the 50% Fibonacci level at 1.09427 traced back from January 2021 highs.
- This could allow the Federal Reserve room to hike interest rates once more in May.
| SMA (1D) | Rising |  |
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| RSI (1D) | Slightly Rising | |
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| MACD (1D) | Neutral |
Closing statement: Despite the positive performance of European stock markets and a bullish short-term outlook for the EUR/USD pair, investors will be closely watching the release of euro zone retail sales data for February, which is expected to show a decline. The recent positive US jobs report and potential for another Fed interest rate hike in May could also impact market sentiment for the EUR/USD.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD rose 0.45% to 1.2437, rebounding from a 0.2% decline in the previous session.
- The DXY, which measures the dollar against six other currencies, traded 0.35% lower at 102.172, after bouncing off a two-month low last week.
- Wednesday's inflation data and the Fed's March meeting minutes will be in focus for further clues on the future path of monetary policy.
- With a low unemployment rate and increasing labour participation rate, a 25 basis point rate hike in May appears more favourable.
- Recent U.S. economic data has indicated a slowdown in growth, with the services sector expanding at a slower pace and job openings dropping to a two-year low in February.
| SMA (1D) | Rising | |
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| RSI (1D) | Slightly Rising | |
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| MACD (1D) | Neutral |
Closing statement: Overall, the pound showed strength against the dollar, with the DXY index lower after bouncing off a two-month low. Investors are now looking ahead to Wednesday's inflation data and Fed minutes for indications of future monetary policy, with the possibility of a rate hike in May appearing more likely.
GOLD
- Gold prices remain steady, hovering just below recent highs, as investors await more cues on the US economy from inflation data and the minutes of the Federal Reserve's March meeting.
- Expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates by another quarter point in May now stand at around 70%, pushed by the increase in nonfarm payrolls and lower unemployment rate.
- Gold continues to be supported by fears of more banking disturbances as investors turn to safe havens.
- Other precious metals, such as platinum and silver, saw some gains on Tuesday, with platinum futures up 0.2% and silver futures up 0.6%.
Closing statement: The upcoming release of inflation data and the minutes of the Federal Reserve's March meeting are likely to provide further insight into the future path of monetary policy, which could have an impact on gold prices. Additionally, ongoing concerns about banking instability and economic uncertainty may continue to support safe-haven assets like gold in the short term.
CRUDE OIL
- Oil prices increased on Tuesday due to hopes of demand growth in Asia and expectations of falling inventories in the US.
- Fuel consumption in India increased by 5% in March from a year earlier, indicating a possible demand increase in the country.
- Chinese airlines are hiring more staff, expecting a rebound in travel demand this year as COVID-19 restrictions ease.
- The American Petroleum Institute is set to release its weekly data on US crude stockpiles, with expectations of another fall after last week's decrease of over 4 million barrels.
| SMA (1D) | Slightly Rising | |
| RSI (1D) | Slightly Rising | |
| MACD (1D) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: Overall, optimism surrounding demand growth in Asia and expectations of further reductions in U.S. crude inventories have contributed to the rise in oil prices on Tuesday. The release of the API's weekly data on U.S. crude stockpiles is also anticipated to impact prices in the near term.
DAX
- European stock markets traded higher, with the DAX index in Germany climbing 0.7% higher, the CAC 40 in France rising 0.9%, and the FTSE 100 in the U.K. up 0.6%.
- The positive sentiment across large parts of Asia helped improve the outlook for European equities after the long Easter weekend.
- According to the German government's Council of Economic Experts, the short-term outlook has brightened slightly, but high inflation remains a concern.
- DAX is currently in a rising trend channel in the medium long term, signaling increasing optimism among investors and indicating continued growth potential.
