Daily Analysis 03/01/2023

On the European front, December manufacturing PMI figures and the statements of ECB President C. Lagarde were followed. Eurozone December Manufacturing PMI data came in at 47.8, in line with expectations. In Germany, Europe's largest economy, manufacturing sector PMI data fell short of expectations and rose to 47.1, recovering. European Central Bank President C. Lagarde said that wages in the euro area were already rising faster than they thought. While important data flow was not followed yesterday due to the holiday in the USA, construction expenditures and manufacturing PMI figures will be followed today.

While the UK has opened the nuclear fuel fund to use in order to reduce its energy dependence on Russia, on the other hand, it has announced that passengers from China will be asked for a negative Kovid-19 test result. On the US side, we can say that there was no significant data flow on the first trading day of the year. Today, manufacturing PMI data will be followed in both countries. In the parity, which showed a slight downward trend yesterday, we see that slight upward movements are observed this morning. The dollar index, on the other hand, is moving in a slightly uptrend this morning, close to the horizontal.

In global markets, the first week of the new year will be focused on the US non-farm payrolls data, which will be released on Friday. Many of the foreign markets were closed yesterday, so there was no significant data flow announced. Markets open today. Manufacturing PMI data will be followed in the USA. Data-based movement can be monitored, but its impact may be limited. US futures are slightly upside down this morning. The dollar index is trading between 103.46-103.82 and the pullback experienced yesterday, as the dollar index had difficulty in its movement above the 104.00 level, also supported the rise of ounce gold. This morning, mild buyers are seen in the spot market ounce.

The S&P 500 index closed Friday at 3,839, down 0.24%. Markets in the US were closed yesterday. It will be open today. US futures are trading with light buyers this morning. Manufacturing PMI data will be followed in the US today. This week, nonfarm payrolls data will be released in the US on Friday. The data to be released on Friday may affect the expectations for the Fed's meeting in February. During the week, Fed members also have speeches. Members' statements may also be effective in the course of the markets. With the first week of the new year and the end of the holiday slumber, the volatility in the markets may begin. The recession issue still puts pressure on risk appetite.