Daily Analysis 02/01/2023

Since the last trading day of the week in the global markets was the Christmas week, there was no significant data flow announced, while the developments regarding the agenda were followed. International Monetary Fund Director Kristalina Georgieva has warned that 2023 will be a difficult year for much of the world economy. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index was announced as 44.9 in the USA and continued to recover. While there is no significant data flow to be announced in the USA today due to the Christmas holiday, December manufacturing PMI figures are expected to be announced on the European front.

Housing prices in the UK decreased by 0.1% monthly in December, while the annual increase was 2.8%. Housing prices decreased compared to previous periods. In the USA, Chicago PMI was announced at 44.9 in December, above the level of 37.2 in the previous month. On the last trading day of last year, while upward trends were seen in the parity, the dollar index closed the day in a downward trend. As of today, the data flow is calm in both countries. In this context, a day can be seen in which low volatility will occur.

In the global markets, the risk appetite has been weak in recent days. Recession anxiety, while causing volatility in the markets, also leads to sales in the stock markets. For this reason, upward reactions can be observed in the ounce gold price, which is a safe haven. This week could be an important week for an ounce of Gold because it will be jobs week in the US. On Friday, US nonfarm payrolls data will follow. It can be expected that the data to be announced will affect the expectations about the Fed. The Fed's first meeting of this year is on January 31-February 01. Until then, the speeches of Fed officials and Fed Chairman Powell, inflation and employment data in the US will determine the course of prices. Many markets abroad today will be closed on holidays therefore ounce Gold will also be closed.

The S&P 500 index closed Friday at 3,839, down 0.24%. In global markets, it is seen that the concerns about the recession suppress the risk appetite. Therefore, the risk appetite in the markets was weak and sales were observed in the US stock markets. It is seen that the US indices completed the year 2022 with sellers. At the start of the new week, US indices will be closed. There is no significant data flow to be announced for today. U.S. employment data will be on the agenda for the week. On Friday, US non-farm payrolls data will be released. At the same time, the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings data will be followed by the markets.